Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Oh, (Skate) Canada! My Ladies/Pairs Predictions

One down, five to go.

A glance at Ice Network’s event schedule for Skate Canada tells me I’d better get my weak little predictions started—especially if I want to break them into two parts!

So, starting with PAIRS:

Gold- Kawaguchi/Smirnov (RUS)
Silver- Dube/Davison (CAN)
Bronze- McLaughlin/Brubaker (USA)

Confession time: I changed my mind as I started typing this… or better put, when I reviewed last year’s SkCan tape earlier tonight. I’d planned to give this one to Dube/Davison, put McBru (my new nickname for the Americans, though I’m sure someone else thought of it first) in 2nd like last week, and put the Russian team in 3rd as they were last year. But watching Kawa/Smir tonight, and thinking about the throw quad salchow they almost landed last year, and factoring in Tamara Moskvina’s certain strong desire to see her team make a major move (and the way she seems to get what she wants in this regard!)… I re-evaluated, and came up with a victory for them. I expect to see the other two mentioned give a strong run nonetheless, with McBru almost certainly earning a spot in the GP Final with a bronze follow-up to last week’s silver.

And as for the LADIES:

Gold- Joannie Rochette (CAN)
Silver- Carolina Kostner (ITA)
Bronze- Alissa Czisny (USA)

I thought about changing my mind here too… not because Joannie gave a weak performance last year (she didn’t), but because she had a rather strong free skate—and still only finished 3rd, due to a 5th place SP. Can she put two great skates back to back? In her home country? She might as well prove it right now, since everyone’s going to be wondering it come Olympic time anyway. So I’m rooting for her to do just that.

I’m also rooting for her to beat Kostner because I still think Kostner was overrated much of last season. A rather snarky thing to say, maybe, but there it is nonetheless. As for Czisny? I suppose it’s a longshot… but SkCan was very good to her a few years back, so no better time to set up her renaissance if you ask me. She’s already won one event this new season (Nebelhorn Trophy) by a whopping 14 points. I smell a comeback…

In fact, she gets the
Clip of the Day so we can get a sneak peek at her free skate. This is from Liberty Open back in the summer. A couple blips, but it’s nice to see both her triple lutzes in such fine form.


Aaron said...

Shucks...I'm gonna keep my predictions where they are but after reading your post I think you're more on the money...I should have done the last season recap too!

As for Kostner being overrated...snarky or not, it's the truth!

Laura said...

I hope you're right about Czisny, I just couldn't bring myself to pick her but would love to see her do well. I agree wholeheartedly about Kostner.

Kelli Lawrence said...

Aaron-- thanks much, but I doubt I'll be coming close to your accuracy on the predictions anytime soon!

And Laura-- sorry to say that at least as far as the SP is concerned, I'm wrong about Czisny. (But even she did better than Koster? Yikes.)