Friday, February 8, 2019

2019 Four Continents Predictions (Pairs and Dance)

PAIRS

GOLD: Sui/Han (CHN)
SILVER: Peng/Jin (CHN)
BRONZE: Kayne/O’Shea (USA)
Dark Horse(s): Moore-Towers/Marinaro (CAN), or any other U.S. team

It probably should be noted that an already small field of competing pairs teams (11) has shrunk even smaller (8) with the absence of the Australian, North Korean, and Japanese teams. That leaves 3 Canadian teams, 3 U.S. teams, and 2 Chinese teams. That’s it! But of those remaining, the Chinese are the most reliable to do well (especially Sui/Han, despite the fact that injuries take them out of half the season more often than not). I’m giving the other podium nod to K/O because they historically have done well at 4CC (including winning it last year)… and I’m hoping for a strong rebound after that heartbreaking missed final lift at Nats.

DANCE
GOLD: Hubbell/Donohue (USA)
SILVER: Weaver/Poje (CAN)
BRONZE: Gilles/Poirier (CAN)
Dark Horse: Chock/Bates (USA)


Hawayek/Baker won this last year—and they’ll be competing this year—but last year most of the bigger names were bypassing 4CC while they prepped for their Olympic close-up. My choice for bronze is more of a sentimental one; G/P seem to get outscored technically on a regular basis, but DANG do I enjoy their Vincent FD this season.

Thursday, February 7, 2019

2019 Four Continents Predictions: Ladies and Men

Once again I didn’t get an analysis of the last event I posted about (U.S. Nats) posted before the next big figure skating event (Four Continents Championship/4CC) was begging our collective attention.

At least this time I kind of have a good excuse. My current state of blog-post-pokiness has increased since early January because that’s when rehearsals started for a local production of Singin’ in the Rain… and I made it into the cast! Just in the ensemble, mind you—something I’ve done many times before—but it’s special to me for many reasons. Mostly because I turned 50 last August, and will be tap-dancing on stage among a cast that is largely half my age, and the last time I got to tap on stage I was… um… about half my age! Also because this is my first time at a new theater (new to me; the theater has been around 60 years or so, I think). Also because the show is based on one of my favorite films of all time! So anyway, we were learning choreography in January and are “putting it all together” in February (with performances in March). It’s great fun, but if you’ve ever been in a stage production of any kind you know it takes a LOT of time.

Fortunately, though, the week leading to opening night—also known as Tech Week, but better described as Hell Week—doesn’t come till the end of February, somewhere between 4CC and Worlds. (Whew.) Which brings me to the event at hand this week!

LADIES
GOLD: Rika Kihara (JPN)
SILVER: Kaori Sakamoto (JPN)
BRONZE: Mai Mihara (JPN)
Dark Horses: Bradie Tennell (USA) & Lim Eun-soo (KOR)

There are 22 ladies representing 12 different countries this time, yet three ladies from ONE country (Japan) are likely to dominate. It’s not a slam dunk—several competitors have the goods to spoil that sweep, including the two I mentioned above. And here’s the crazy thing: SO good are the three representing Japan this time, it’s hard to find one who’s completely dominating. Sakamoto won Japan Nationals, for instance, but if Kihara hits her triple axels at 4CC, look out. I’ve actually put her in front here as a litmus test as to where I may put her when it’s time to make Worlds predictions.

MEN
GOLD: Shoma Uno (JPN)
SILVER: Cha Jun-wan (KOR)
BRONZE: Vincent Zhou (USA)
Dark Horses: Keegan Messing (CAN), Kozuki Tomono (JPN), Jason Brown (USA)

Uno doesn’t seem to skate clean all that often, but what he gets done is often extraordinary nonetheless, putting him right up there with Nathan Chen and (of course) Yuzuru Hanyu. But both of them tend to beat him when going head to head, and neither of them are here—which should also leave room on the podium for both Zhou and South Korea’s breakout star of the season (Cha).


Pairs and Dance predictions for 4CC coming shortly!

Friday, January 25, 2019

2019 U.S. Figure Skating Predictions (Dance and Men's)

DANCE PREDICTIONS

GOLD: Madison Hubbell/Zach Donohue
SILVER: Madison Chock/Evan Bates
BRONZE: Kaitlyn Hawayek/Jean Luc-Baker
PEWTER: Rachel Parsons/Michael Parsons

In a season that has been without the Shibutanis and Chock/Bates (and continues to be without the former), it’s been a bit of a mystery how this year’s podium would shake out and who might be new to it. And as excited as I am to see Hawayek/Baker finally get there, I’m putting them behind C/B out of some concern that H/B might crack a little under the podium pressure. Also because I saw C/B’s debut of their free dance a few weeks back, and yeah… they’ll be plenty competitive.

MEN'S PREDICTIONS

GOLD: Nathan Chen
SILVER: Vincent Zhou
BRONZE: Jason Brown
PEWTER: Andrew Torgashev


Nathan may be at Harvard now, but his LDCR (Long Distance Coaching Relationship) with Rafael Arutyunyan is going GREAT so far. So an upset seems unlikely… but of course, Zhou should never be counted out completely (though his technique/under-rotation issues of earlier in the season had better be a thing of the past for that to happen). Brown has been working his way back from last year’s crushing 6th place finish all season long, so bronze definitely seems within his reach even without a solid quad. As for who comes after that… well here’s the thing. In deciding between three relative rising stars—Tomoki Hiwatashi, Andrew Torgashev, and Alexsei Krasnozhon—I initially gave Krasnozhon the nod for the 4th place medal. But when I went to type out my initial list of predictions, I kept typing “Torgashev”. So I took it as a sign. We shall see. 

Thursday, January 24, 2019

2019 U.S. Figure Skating Championships Predictions (Pairs and Ladies)

2019 U.S. Senior Nationals are here… who will reign supreme in the always extra-intriguing post-Olympic season? I’m starting my guesses with the two disciplines getting underway on Thursday 1/24…

PAIRS PREDICTIONS

GOLD: Tarah Kayne/Danny O’Shea
SILVER: Alexa Scimeca-Knierim/Chris Knierim
BRONZE: Deanna Stellato-Dudek/Nate Bartholomay
PEWTER: Ashley Cain/Timothy LeDuc

13 pairs are vying for the podium this year. Who’s got a shot near the top? Honestly, several of them. While pairs continue to be anything but the U.S.’s strongest discipline (as evidenced by the fact that only ONE team will represent at 2019 Worlds), around 5 or 6 teams are pretty evenly matched. Honestly, any of the teams listed above could win… or even a team that isn’t (Audrey Lu/Misha Mitrofanov, who won Junior Nats last year and competed the GP circuit this past fall).

LADIES PREDICTIONS

GOLD: Bradie Tennell
SILVER: Mariah Bell
BRONZE: Alysa Liu
PEWTER: Starr Andrews

No Wagner or Nagasu this time… and as of earlier this month, no Chen, Gold or Wang. It’s definitely a year for new (or newer) athletes to make a move. But Tennell, while no longer the “never-miss” champ, is still more than reliable enough to lead this year’s pack. But she’s not without legit challengers, so I’m thinking of Bell’s NHK free skate, Andrews at last year’s Nats, and Liu’s triple axels (yes, she’s got a consistent triple axel) when I list them for filling out the rest of the podium.


And while I haven’t had a chance this year to check out YouTube to get acquainted with this year’s rookies aside from Liu, I’m keeping my eyes open for Megan Wessenberg (6th at Skate America in the fall) as a potential dark horse. 

I'll post my Men and Dance predictions Friday!

A Few Thoughts Before Nationals Predictions...

I thought about posting after the Grand Prix Final. I thought about a Christmas wish-themed post, as I think I did in the early years of this blog.

I thought about posting at the turn of the new year. I got a little past the “thought” point and started writing a post on January 10—just after Gracie withdrew from Nationals. I had some things I wanted to say, much as I did just after she skated at Rostelecom Cup. But I let other priorities take over, and a few sentences into the post the words stopped coming.

Last Friday night—a little over a week later—I was sitting here, too late for my own good as I often do (1:50 AM), trying to re-familiarize myself with this year’s list of U.S. Nationals competitors, when I went to close my Facebook tab for the night and was instead alarmed to see something from someone in the skating community that had “John Coughlin” and “RIP” in the same post. A quick search on Twitter brought me similar information. I knew something about the allegations that had been made about him via SafeSport; I did not yet know about his interim suspension from events such as the upcoming Nationals. Regardless, I went to bed stunned and shaken, dreading the spread of the news over the weekend.

Again, I considered posting some thoughts… but deep down, I knew I wouldn’t get anything up on this blog until the day the senior events at U.S. Nats arrived. Partly because that’s my pattern of late, and partly because I tend to censor myself when it comes to writing publicly on weightier matters. There are already so many reports, opinions, and speculations out there on The Issues Of Our Times—my .02 feels pretty damn irrelevant. Know what I mean?

So I’m acknowledging the elephant in the skating room (or rink?), if only because it seems bizarre NOT to this week. But I’m not addressing it—not right now, at least. There’s enough of that going on already, and I don’t feel my voice contributes anything new to the conversation.

I DO retweet some of those other voices, and you can go look me up @KLBSt8ofSk8 if you’re curious about that.


In the meantime, it IS “the day the senior events at U.S. Nats arrived”—so my predictions-from-afar will begin posting shortly. 

Thursday, December 6, 2018

2018 ISU Senior GP Final Predictions

Yes, I realize I haven’t posted notes from either Rostelecom Cup or Internationaux de France yet… but once again the next event is upon us already, so allow me to jump to Senior Grand Prix Predictions!

Here is the schedule if you’re on Eastern Time like me… (late starts on things because Vancouver is on Pacific Time, as 2010 Winter Olympics viewers may recall)

THURSDAY
10:45 PM Men’s Short Program
MIDNIGHT Ladies’ Short Program

FRIDAY
10:05 PM Rhythm Dance
11:20 PM Pairs Short Program
12:35 AM Men’s Free Skate

SATURDAY
4:55 PM Ladies Free Skate
10:00 PM Free Dance
11:20 PM Pairs Free Skate

With only 6 in each category, I’m going to do what I think I’ve done in the past (?) and try to predict all the placements. Remember that the number of points someone has going into the Final is not necessarily representative of how they’ll fare in this particular field.

Also, remember that Yuzuru Hanyu scratched from this year’s GPF due to injury (replaced by Canada’s Keegan Messing).


MEN
GOLD Shoma Uno (JPN)
SILVER Nathan Chen (USA)
BRONZE Sergei Voronov (RUS)
4 Michal Brezina (CZE)
5 Cha Jun-hwan (KOR)
6 Keegan Messing (CAN)

Neither Uno nor Chen has been flawless this GP season; if both continue as such here at the Final I think the judges will favor the reigning OSM.

LADIES
GOLD Rika Kihira (JPN)
SILVER Alina Zagitova (RUS)
BRONZE Satoko Miyahara (JPN)
4 Elizaveta Tuktamysheva (RUS)
5 Kaori Sakamoto (JPN)
6 Sofia Samodurova (RUS)

I’m admittedly counting on Kihira to hit at least one of her triple axels to edge Zagitova out what should be a pretty tight battle.

PAIRS
GOLD James/Cipres (FRA)
SILVER Tarasova/Morozov (RUS)
BRONZE Zabiiako/Enbert (RUS)
4 Peng/Jin (CHN)
5 Pavliuchenko/Khodykin (RUS)
6 Della Monica/Guarise (ITA)

A pretty messy pairs season thus far, even for those who usually skate rather clean… but J/C and T/M should top this field.

DANCE
GOLD Stepanova/Bukin (RUS)
SILVER Hubbell/Donohue (USA)
BRONZE Sinitsina/Katsalapov (RUS)
4 Guignard/Fabbri (ITA)
5 Zahorski/Guerreiro (RUS)
6 Hawayek/Baker (USA)


H/D have been fantastic thus far in 2018-19, but Step/Buk seem to have the extra firepower going for them.

Thursday, November 22, 2018

2018 Internationaux de France Previews/Predictions

After finishing my kitchen cleanup from serving Thanksgiving dinner S E V E R A L hours ago, here are my GP France predictions. One more event until we know who’s in this year’s Final-!!

MEN:
GOLD: Nathan Chen (USA)
SILVER: Alexander Samarin (RUS)
BRONZE: Boyang Jin (CHN)

Samarin seems like the only one in the field who might have the quad consistency to be runner-up to Chen here. (Of course Chen will bring a whole lot more to the event than quads, making him the only possible victor here unless perhaps he falls ill, or gets trapped under a car.)

EYES ON Dmitri Aliev, who could easily outskate Samarin or Boyang for a medal.

LADIES:
GOLD: Rika Kihira (JPN)
SILVER: Evgenia Medvedeva (RUS)
BRONZE: Mai Mihara (JPN)

Medved is still in this hunt for sure, but after what she threw down at NHK Trophy, Kihira’s triple axel-hitting odds are too strong to overlook.

EYES ON Marin Honda, who only finished 8th at Skate America earlier this season but is most definitely still a top contender for just about any podium. Don’t underestimate her!

PAIRS:
GOLD: James/Cipres (FRA)
SILVER: Boikova//Kozlovskii (RUS)
BRONZE: Ryom/Kim (PRK)

Is it OK to say it’s been a lackluster pairs season thus far except for the front-runner emergence of James/Cipres? I think I just did. (Can I also say I REALLY look forward to Sui/Han’s return? Good.)

DANCE:
GOLD: Papadakis/Cizeron (FRA)
SILVER: Gilles/Poirier (CAN)
BRONZE: Hawayek/Baker (USA)


Eyes on Papa/Ciz because this is their season debut, and what else are you going to want to look at once they’re on the ice?