NHK Trophy 2019 Previews & Predictions

Before the annual meeting of Yuzuru Hanyu’s fan club comes and goes this weekend, here’s my take on what might happen at NHK Trophy, this year’s final GP stop:

DANCE

GOLD: Papadakis/Cizeron (FRA)

SILVER: Stepanova/Bukin (RUS)

BRONZE: Guignard/Fabbri (ITA) 

I’m just putting the regular ice dance logic on this prediction. GBR’s Fear/Gibson won bronze at their other GP assignment this season and might make things interesting, though.

Eyes on: the American teams (McNamara/Carpenter & Carreira/Ponomarenko). We’ve seen the latter earlier this GP season, but Mc/Carp had to scratch from GP France so we haven’t seen them in at least a couple months. And since they finished 4^th behind Hawayek/Baker last Nationals, I know I’M interested in seeing how the judges currently see them.

PAIRS

GOLD: Sui/Han (CHN)

SILVER: Mishina/Galliamov (RUS)

BRONZE: Moore-Towers/Marinaro (CAN)

Sui/Han should be rather untouchable here. Mishina/Galliamov won GP France a couple weeks ago, and Nebelhorn before that, so they seem like reliable runners-up. M-T/M? I’ve got them there because it’s always a possibility they’ll be at the top, but then it’s always a little something-something that keeps them from getting there. Unfortunately.

Eyes on: Again, the American teams (Scimeca-Knierim/Knierim  & Kayne/O’Shea)… neither of which currently holds the national title; both of which surely want to build confidence here (their last big event ahead of 2020 Nats) as a means towards reclaiming said title.

MEN

GOLD: Yuzuru Hanyu (JPN)

SILVER: Makar Ignatov (RUS)

BRONZE: Kevin Aymoz (FRA)

It might seem like this event is an annual coronation for Hanyu, but he’s actually only won NHK three times (!!) and hasn’t even competed here in three years (!!!). Since he’s not sick or injured to my knowledge, I’m predicting NHK title number 4 for him. As for silver, there are several scenarios that could play out… the one I’m going with favors Ignatov, who is fresh off a bronze medal win at last week’s Rostelecom Cup. His artistic side is underdeveloped, but his content is solid. Bronze is tough because I’d enjoy seeing both Aymoz and Jason Brown medal this weekend; I’m giving the nod to Aymoz on account of stronger jump content (unless Brown lands his quad salchow, in which case we’re back to zero… hmmm)

Eyes on: SatoYamamoto, who was 9^th at Japanese Nationals last year but also won silver medals at both the U.S. Classic and Nebelhorn Trophy earlier in the season. Talk about a wild card…

LADIES

GOLD: Alena Kostornaia (RUS)

SILVER: Rika Kihira (JPN)

BRONZE: Alina Zagitova (RUS)

Dueling triple axels! And, perhaps, dueling triple axel/triple toe loops? We shall see what Kosto & Kihira bring to the arena. If they’re both delivering, even a squeaky clean Zags may have to settle for bronze.

Eyes on: Megan Wessenberg, 6^th at U.S. Nats this year, competing at her only GP event of the season.