Thursday, December 5, 2019

2019 ISU Grand Prix Final Preview & Predictions


Who will win the next round of Hanyu vs. Chen?  What would surprise us LESS than a Ladies sweep of Russian teenagers?  Can anyone challenge Papadakis/Cizeron in ice dance? WILL anyone challenge Sui/Han in pairs?

In other words, it’s time for the ISU Grand Prix Final of 2019! Below are my predictions for the way each group of 6 will shake out by the end of the weekend in Turin, Italy:

MEN
Gold: Yuzuru Hanyu (JPN)
Silver: Nathan Chen (USA)
Bronze: Alexander Samarin (RUS)
4th: Dmitri Aliev (RUS)
5th- Kevin Aymoz (FRA)
6th- Boyang Jin (CHN)

I could never tire of either Hanyu OR Chen’s skating, but I’m going with Hanyu here because I’m not sure Chen can beat him at this peak time in both the skating and collegiate worlds.

LADIES
Gold: Alena Kostornaia (RUS)
Silver: Alexandra Trusova (RUS)
Bronze: Anna Shcherbakova (RUS)
4th- Alina Zagitova (RUS)
5th- Rika Kihira (JPN)
6th- Bradie Tennell (USA)

Perhaps this will be the event where components get scored a bit more accordingly? Let’s hope so, as the PCS gap between Kosto and Sasha should at least be large enough for Shcherbet to jump through :)  Consider this, as it has been in previous years, a dress rehearsal for Russian Nationals, happening about 3 weeks from now.

PAIRS
Gold: Sui/Han (CHN)
Silver: Boikova/Kozlovskii (RUS)
Bronze: Peng/Jin (CHN)
4th- Mishina/Galliamov (RUS)
5th- Moore-Towers/Marinaro (CAN)
6th- Pavliuchenko/Khodykin (RUS)

I’ll be honest and tell you that, at this point in the season, I do not know my Mish/Gall from my Pav/Kho and am seriously considering a sequel to my post about differentiating between the top Russian teen ladies

DANCE
Gold: Papadakis/Cizeron (FRA)
Silver: Sinitsina/Katsalapov (RUS)
Bronze: Stepanova/Bukin (RUS)
4th- Hubbell/Donohue (USA)
5th- Chock/Bates (USA)
6th- Gilles/Poirier (CAN)

This is how I predict it will go; if my less-than-qualified eyes were in charge of placement and all skated without egregious mistakes… I’d probably move Step/Buk to 2nd… give bronze to Chock/Bates… and bring G/P up to 4th.

Wednesday, December 4, 2019

A "Recapette" of NHK Trophy 2019


There always seems to be an interesting and/or unexpected development at the last GP event of the Final (which is NHK, more often than not). This time around…

+ We saw Canada’s Roman Sadovsky win a bronze medal after coming in 12th and 10th at his only two other GP career appearances thus far. Yes, this may have been more of a commentary on the faltering non-Hanyu competitors than anything else (Voronov? Brown? Ignatov? Hellooooo!?!), but hey, a GP medal is a GP medal! I hope it instills confidence as Sadovsky approaches Canadian Nationals.

+ We saw one U.S. lady (Karen Chen) surprise us in a great way with the 3rd-best scored SP of the event—unexpectedly finishing ahead of reigning OGM Alina Zagitova—only to surprise us again with one of the lowest-scored Free Skates a day later. Her overall 9th place finish, combined with Star Andrews’ 8th place and Megan Wessenberg’s 12th place, easily amounted to the worst GP showing of the season with regards to U.S. ladies. (The good news: they did much better in all the other GPs.)

+ We saw another representative of Canada—the veteran pair team of Moore-Towers/Marinaro—qualify for their first-ever GP Final with a silver medal NHK finish. (M-T did go to the GPF with previous partner Dylan Moscovitch in 2010, 2012, and 2013.) So I will stop saying “It’s always something” with regards to M-T/M breaking through, because they earned this!

+  And finally, we saw the two U.S. dance teams here (Carriera/Ponomarenko and McNamara/Carpenter) struggle for improvement just as Hawayek/Baker have earlier in the season. It’s been a while since I was so curious to know who’ll grab that third slot at Nationals with regards to ice dance…

The Senior GP Final starts with the Pairs Short Program at 1:50 PM Thursday, so I'll start posting my predictions sometime tomorrow morning!

Thursday, November 21, 2019

NHK Trophy 2019 Previews & Predictions


Before the annual meeting of Yuzuru Hanyu’s fan club comes and goes this weekend, here’s my take on what might happen at NHK Trophy, this year’s final GP stop:


DANCE
GOLD: Papadakis/Cizeron (FRA)
SILVER: Stepanova/Bukin (RUS)
BRONZE: Guignard/Fabbri (ITA) 

I’m just putting the regular ice dance logic on this prediction. GBR’s Fear/Gibson won bronze at their other GP assignment this season and might make things interesting, though.

Eyes on: the American teams (McNamara/Carpenter & Carreira/Ponomarenko). We’ve seen the latter earlier this GP season, but Mc/Carp had to scratch from GP France so we haven’t seen them in at least a couple months. And since they finished 4th behind Hawayek/Baker last Nationals, I know I’M interested in seeing how the judges currently see them.


PAIRS
GOLD: Sui/Han (CHN)
SILVER: Mishina/Galliamov (RUS)
BRONZE: Moore-Towers/Marinaro (CAN)

Sui/Han should be rather untouchable here. Mishina/Galliamov won GP France a couple weeks ago, and Nebelhorn before that, so they seem like reliable runners-up. M-T/M? I’ve got them there because it’s always a possibility they’ll be at the top, but then it’s always a little something-something that keeps them from getting there. Unfortunately.

Eyes on: Again, the American teams (Scimeca-Knierim/Knierim  & Kayne/O’Shea)… neither of which currently holds the national title; both of which surely want to build confidence here (their last big event ahead of 2020 Nats) as a means towards reclaiming said title.

MEN
GOLD: Yuzuru Hanyu (JPN)
SILVER: Makar Ignatov (RUS)
BRONZE: Kevin Aymoz (FRA)

It might seem like this event is an annual coronation for Hanyu, but he’s actually only won NHK three times (!!) and hasn’t even competed here in three years (!!!). Since he’s not sick or injured to my knowledge, I’m predicting NHK title number 4 for him. As for silver, there are several scenarios that could play out… the one I’m going with favors Ignatov, who is fresh off a bronze medal win at last week’s Rostelecom Cup. His artistic side is underdeveloped, but his content is solid. Bronze is tough because I’d enjoy seeing both Aymoz and Jason Brown medal this weekend; I’m giving the nod to Aymoz on account of stronger jump content (unless Brown lands his quad salchow, in which case we’re back to zero… hmmm)

Eyes on: SatoYamamoto, who was 9th at Japanese Nationals last year but also won silver medals at both the U.S. Classic and Nebelhorn Trophy earlier in the season. Talk about a wild card…

LADIES
GOLD: Alena Kostornaia (RUS)
SILVER: Rika Kihira (JPN)
BRONZE: Alina Zagitova (RUS)

Dueling triple axels! And, perhaps, dueling triple axel/triple toe loops? We shall see what Kosto & Kihira bring to the arena. If they’re both delivering, even a squeaky clean Zags may have to settle for bronze.


Eyes on: Megan Wessenberg, 6th at U.S. Nats this year, competing at her only GP event of the season. 

Wednesday, November 20, 2019

A Little About Rostelecom Cup 2019, and a lot about Gracie Gold


This is the time of the week when I usually make a handful of observations and comments about the GP event of the past weekend, which in this case would be Rostelecom Cup. So for consistency’s sake, my comments are as follows (consider this a tiny “handful”):

+ The Russian men’s sweep? Unsurprising. (Duh, I predicted that podium. As did many others, I suspect.) Shoma Uno did a little better here, finishing 4th, but his need for a full-time coach to replace the “n/a” we saw on his name key at Rostelecom continues in a big, bad way.

+ The Russian pairs sweep? Oh, wait, there wasn’t one. Germany’s Hase/Seegert won bronze in their first-ever trip to the GP podium. That was cool. (The Russian team that didn’t get it done was Stolbova/Novoselov, who had multiple errors in their free skate.)

The dance podium was as I predicted, which means TPTB didn’t get my memo that Gilles/Poirier could win (meaning probably should win). Ah, well.

+  For the ladies, Sasha Trusova won again (despite 2 falls in the FS) but Evgenia Medvedeva stole the show… and probably any hearts she hasn’t already won, especially in her home country. Mariah Bell brought home another bronze GP medal, though I think Bradie Tennell (with a 2nd and 4th on this year’s circuit) is a little higher than her on the GPF alternate list due to tiebreaker rules.

I could explain those tiebreaker rules, but I’m gonna let you look them up if you’re really curious. Because I want to spend the rest of this post talking about Gracie Gold.

You may have heard that Gracie officially qualified for the 2020 U.S. Nationals this past weekend after earning bronze at the USFS Eastern Sectionals. While this information was largely presented in social media matter-of-factually and/or with varying degrees of positive subjectivity—at least, as far as I saw—I also read posts treating Gracie’s achievement with disinterest, or even vague disdain. Ho hum, who cares, two other skaters finished ahead of her, why not mention them by name if you’re compelled to mention her? Something like that.

So let’s start there. Are the results of a USFS Eastern Sectional newsworthy? To hard-core fans, sure—and thanks to resources like Twitter, we can seek out said results with ease. But when that Eastern Sectional includes an athlete who won two Grand Prix titles, won the U.S. title twice, finished 4th at the Sochi Olympics, and finished in the top 6 at four World Championships in a row? Then it becomes newsworthy in a bigger way. Not oh-my-God-she-has-a-shot-at-the-national-podium big, but big enough.

Most people reading this likely know why an athlete with a resume such as Gracie’s was at Eastern Sectionals (and South Atlantic Regionals before that) at all. But if you don’t, it’s easy now to read her recent backstory in the New York Times. Or People magazine. Or Sports Illustrated. Or several other news outlets. 

Disclosing battles with severe depression can generate attention. So can disclosing an eating disorder. So can revealing you “imagined taking your life and nobody finding your body until the landlord came to collect overdue rent,” as Gracie did in the NY Times article. She’s been dealing with all the above, and a lot more, since 2017 Worlds.

But what has stayed with me most about Gracie is what I saw with my own eyes as I watched last year’s Rostelecom Cup (at which she attempted to compete). At the time, I was barely keeping up with weekly Grand Prix predictions and felt a tug of relief that I didn’t “need” to do any sort of Rostelecom postmortem here on the blog. So I kept my worries to myself for the most part: the way Gracie barely seemed to test any jumps during her SP warmup. The program itself, which contained a fall, a completely missed element (double axel), and no successful triple jumps. The piece of hair hanging in Gracie’s face when she finished; a sharp contrast to her pristine upsweeps of the past. Her eyeroll as she pushed said piece of hair out of her face. 

The worried look exchanged between her two coaches as she bent over to adjust her skates in the Kiss’n’Cry.


The way she held her head in her hands as her score went up.


And as I sat in front of the computer for the free skate one day later—dreading what might happen, to be honest—I remember it didn’t start on time. Maybe five minutes went by, maybe more than that. But if you’ve ever watched an ISU event, you know a late start of any kind is rare. And by the time the results page was finally saying The first warm-up group is on the ice, Gracie’s name was missing from the list of skaters. As I recall, they didn’t even have her name up there with a “WD” alongside it. It was just missing. For the duration of the warm-up. (It returned just as news of Gracie’s withdrawal from Rostelecom started circulating on Twitter.)

Her own explanation of her choice to scratch from the event came hours later, on Twitter… and it was clear her SP performance played a big part in the decision. But in those moments leading up to the (delayed) start of the free skate, I found myself ridiculously worried about Gracie. Admittedly, my mind tends to shoot to worst-case-scenario mode in a hurry for most anything. So that didn’t help.

But this whole scenario was rather unprecedented in any sport, let alone the seemingly made-for-TV drama that figure skating tends to be. So my mind kept swimming with speculation: Is she OK? Did she have another breakdown? Did it happen right there at the arena as she got ready to compete? Dammit, why did The Powers That Be let her go to Russia for this event at all??

Then, after she’d clarified things later: How much of a setback will this be for her? Six months? A year? Will she still be able to make a comeback now? Should she even try?

I wasn’t surprised after that when she withdrew from Nationals; I don’t think many of us were. In that space between Rostelecom (November) and the start of Nationals (January), nobody in the media seemed sure of the right thing to say about Gracie.  On the NBC coverage of Rostelecom Cup, there was only about 30 matter-of-fact seconds about Gracie’s attempt to compete (along with an obligatory “we wish her the best”). Both Phil Hersh and Christine Brennan—two sports journalists as well-known to figure skating fans as their respective aversions to mincing words—wrote pieces about Gracie’s withdrawal in early January that were carefully constructed to neither discourage her comeback efforts nor encourage a world of additional progress.

It wasn’t until Nationals weekend itself, when the NY Times article came out, that the depths of Gracie’s issues became transparent enough to REALLY talk about.

She’s done a lot of talking, both about mental health in general and hers in detail, since the start of this year. It’s a brave move on her part; for those of us following along that have endured mental health crises of our own, it’s perhaps as cathartic for us as it is for her. But the physical and, if she wishes, competitive comeback is still a work in progress. Which brings me back to what she accomplished last weekend, 365 or so days after her Rostelecom Cup withdrawal.


Gracie has qualified for 2020 U.S. Nationals. The last time she competed at Nats in 2017 she finished in 6th place, parted ways with coach Frank Carroll before the event was over, and (reportedly) put her U.S. team jacket in a trash can. (I think it was also reported that she quietly retrieved said jacket a little later.)

A year later, she didn’t compete but sat in the stands, making self-deprecating jokes and opining about the athletes on Twitter.

A year after that, she wasn’t there at all.

When you battle the kind of demons Gracie Gold has, and have a livelihood that documents your highs and lows so publicly, and so very vividly… how can you persevere at a time when most anyone else in “battle mode” does well just to get through a day without succumbing to the fetal position?

I’m keeping my eye on her for the answer, for exactly as long as she wants to work towards it.

Thursday, November 14, 2019

Rostelecom Cup 2019: Previews and Predictions


It’s Rostelecom Cup time, so please save all SWR (Skating While Russian) jokes until the end of my predictions. Here we go…


MEN
GOLD: Alexander Samarin (RUS)
SILVER: Dmitri Aliev (RUS)
BRONZE: Makar Ignatov (RUS)

Here’s my first of two Russian sweep predictions. Believe me it brings no pleasure to predict Samarin to win anything, as he continues to skate with all the personality of a bag of synthetic sponges. But he’s got the quads, and he’s got more consistency than the guy I’d rather see on top (Aliev). As for the GP rookie Ignatov—he won Nebelhorn earlier in the season, and followed that up with a silver at the Denis Ten Memorial. So he may be new to this particular competition, but I’m not sure that’ll stop him from a podium finish.

UNLESS Shoma Uno has a MUCH stronger outing than he did in France a few weeks ago. So… eyes on Uno for this one.


LADIES
GOLD: Alexandra Trusova (RUS)
SILVER: Evgenia Medvedeva (RUS)
BRONZE: Satoko Miyahara (JPN)

Sasha Trusova’s the one with the most quads, and even when she blows one on occasion (as she did at Skate America), she doesn’t seem rattled by it. Medvedeva wasn’t her best at SkCan, but I guess I’m hopeful that she’ll be back on it in her home country. If she ISN’T, all I can say is… your move, Mariah Bell.

Eyes on: Yuhana Yokoi, a 19 year-old from Japan making her senior GP debut here (she’ll also be at NHK Trophy next week).


PAIRS
GOLD: Boikova/Kozlovskii (RUS)
SILVER: Stolbova/Novoselov (RUS)
BRONZE: Tarasova/Morozov (RUS)

There are no Chinese pairs team competing at Rostelecom, and neither the U.S. nor Canada are sending teams that are likely to contend for the top spots. That’s why I’m calling for a Russian sweep—even though one of the teams, Ksenia Stolbova/Andrei Novoselov, is making its debut here. Of course we know Stolbova from her very successful partnership with Fedor Klimov, but he retired in September 2018. She began training with Novoselov shortly thereafter.

Eyes on: Lu/Mitrofanov of USA, a still-young team (17 & 22) who finished 6th at Nationals and has done as well as 6th on the GP circuit.

DANCE
GOLD: Sinitsina/Katsalapov (RUS)
SILVER: Gilles/Poirier (CAN)
BRONZE: Hurtado/Khaliavin (ESP)

To be clear: I think G/P could win here as they did at Skate Canada, particularly since Sin/Kat didn’t exactly win in convincing fashion at Cup of China last week. But I don’t want to jinx ‘em by calling it. So someone let them know, please… I’m willing to take one for the team if they’d like to prove my official prediction wrong!

Eyes on:  The Anastasias. The other two Russian dance teams at this event are Anastasia Shpilevaya/Grigory Smirnov and Anastasia Skoptcova/Kirill Aleshin. I don’t think either team are at the level yet where they’ll be medal contenders, but if they get there (especially if they get there at the same time), I may have to do a separate blog post on how to tell one “Anastasia S.” from the other.


2019 Cup of China Recap


MEN
On paper, there were no present-day headliners in the men’s event… but that only made it all the more interesting. My guess at who would step into the driver’s seat (Keiji Tanaka) was wrong—he finished down in 5th—but it was nice to see Boyang Jin regain his jumping “mojo”, claiming his first GP medal in two years and first-EVER GP gold.

For me, it was even nicer seeing Han Yan take silver… or seeing him back at all! I’m sure he knows as well as anyone that the quad-free skating he brought to CoC won’t often place him on the podium, but I doubt that was his point of competing this time around. I don’t know much about him, but I always enjoy his breezy interpretations of the music as much as the elements themselves and it saddened me to see him step away from competition. Did you see his reactions at the end of each program—standing very still, just taking in the positive reaction of the crowd? (That’s how I saw it anyway) It felt like he was reminding himself why he skates, and why he competes. I hope he’s back for a few more years…

LADIES
Since there was no surprise at the top (Shcherbet and her magic dress again), I want to jump to looking at the top PCS (component) scores…
1)      Satoko Miyahara 72.36 (finished 2nd)
2)      Anna Shcherbakova 67.82 (finished 1st)
3)      Elizaveta Tuktamysheva 66.50 (finished 3rd)
4)      Young You 63.36 (finished 4th)
5)      Marin Honda 62.79 (finished 7th)

There’s been some debate already this season about inflated PCS scores with regards to the Russian teens, particularly Quad Queen Alexandra Trusova (whose PCS at SkCAN was about the same as Shcherbet’s here). Thank goodness Miyahara was awarded component scores so far above everyone else’s at CoC that it compensated for her underrotations (two in the SP; three in the FS) and actually changed the color of the medal she received from bronze to silver.  It’s unfortunate that she’s been flagged for the URs enough now that they seem almost inescapable, but the Lori Nichol choreography on her Schindler’s List free skate is glorious. I hope she does well enough at Rostelecom Cup (coming up this weekend) to earn a spot at the GP Final.

PAIRS
Sui/Han were so far above all the other pair teams at CoC, I felt compelled to remind myself of the other top six finishers at Worlds back in March…

Tarasova/Morozov (silver medalists) had a rocky start to their GP experience a few weeks ago at Skate Canada; we’ll see if it was a fluke or a trend at Rostelecom.

Zabiiako/Enbert (bronze) are not competing this GP due to injury.

Peng/Jin (4th) took silver here, and have already qualified for their third GP Final… but remain well behind their teammates (19 points at Worlds; 28.4 points at CoC).

James/Cipres (5th) took the GP season off to be involved with CBC’s revival of Battle of the Blades.

Boikova/Kozlovskii (6th) won Skate Canada a couple weeks back, and will likely end up on the podium again next week at Rostelecom. But it’s worth noting that Sui/Han’s winning score here was 12 points higher than Boi/Koz’s winning score at SkCAN.

In other words… someone send the skater bubblewrap to China, please. We need this injury-prone pair of champions to stay healthy in the worst way.

DANCE
My predictions for this were correct, but did you see the difference between 1st and 2nd was less than 1.5 points?? Chock/Bates actually defeated reigning World Silver Medalists Sinitsina/Katsalapov in the FD portion… which means that GP Final coming up in a month or so is bound to provide a VERY interesting showdown between C/B and Hubbell/Donohue. (And a great preview for U.S. Nationals, in case that isn’t obvious)

But here’s something I definitely didn’t see coming: China’s Wang/Liu coming in 4th—their highest-ever finish at CoC—and beating Hawayek/Baker by about 6 points.  Those points were mostly earned in the FD; the two teams were both in the 74’s point-wise for the SD. If you follow me on Twitter, you may have seen me post a What should they do from here? poll regarding Hawayek Baker’s Spanish-flavored free dance. (They don’t seem to be setting any personal bests with either dance this season, but for the purposes of the poll I focused on the FD.) There was no overwhelming “winner” in my poll—it’s still pinned to my page (@KLBSt8ofSk8) if you want to take a look—but what got the most votes was a suggestion for H/B to return to their very successful FD from last year as they work towards defending their bronze-medal podium spot at Nationals. I hope to take a harder look at their protocols once GP season is past; if I do, I’ll probably post about it. Just feeling kinda mystified and frustrated for them… they’ve worked too long and hard for that #3 spot to lose it so quickly.

(And I was further mystified when someone as knowledgeable as Ben Agosto expressed similar frustration with their SD scores on the Olympic Channel broadcast this past week. I haven’t yet watched his take on the FD. Maybe some clues are uncovered there? )

Thursday, November 7, 2019

2019 Cup of China: Preview & Predictions


It’s baa-ack!

Finland took its place as a GP site last year, but Cup of China (established 2003; replacing Germany on the GP circuit) has returned as the fourth stop on the 2019 ISU Grand Prix. 

And since this is an event where the action starts at 2:30 AM Eastern Time Friday, I’ve got to commit ALL predictions before heading to bed tonight! (Though I have mad respect for those of you who are able to schedule your entire weekend around CoC, I must decline as always… my sleep schedule is jacked-up enough!)

So let’s get to it!

MEN
GOLD: Keiji Tanaka (JPN)
SILVER: Boyang Jin (CHN)
BRONZE: Keegan Messing (CAN)

Wow, I can’t think of the last GP men’s event I witnessed that was so WIDE OPEN! Reigning World Bronze Medalist Vincent Zhou was originally scheduled for CoC, but since he’s elected to skip the entire GP season to focus on his studies at Brown University, the highest placement of anyone here at the last Worlds is 5th (Jin) and 7th (Matteo Rizzo of Italy). 

So… while I could lean on those World placements for predictions, I think it makes more sense to rest one arm on those placements, and rest the other on more recent performances. That’s why I’m (cautiously) calling on recent SkCan bronze medalist Tanaka to win his first-ever GP gold in China. But I’m predicting Jin for medals with the assumption that he’ll shine much brighter in his home country event than he did at SkCan. If I’m wrong about that, either Rizzo or USA’s Camden Pulkinen could step up.

Eyes on: Han Yan of China. But, wait… he’s retired! you say. OR IS HE…???

LADIES
GOLD: Anna Shcherbakova (RUS)
SILVER: Elizaveta Tuktamysheva (RUS)
BRONZE: Satoko Miyahara (JPN)

Another GP week, another Russian teen in the top spot? Yep, that’s my guess. Though since we’re on the back half of the circuit now, the names will be more familiar as they earn their spots in the Final…

And just so you know: of the three names on my podium predictions, Miyahara remains my favorite. I’d have her higher, but based on the consistency levels of Shcherbet and The Empress Tukta it doesn’t make sense to do so.

Eyes on: Sofia Samodurova. Who?? The Russian teen that beat the crowds, got to the senior scene last year, and came away with a Europeans championship and an 8th place finish at Worlds. It’ll be interesting to see if she can transcend any and all traces of Sophomore Slump, especially when she’s not one of Russia’s “A” team.

PAIRS:
GOLD: Sui/Han (CHN)
SILVER: Peng/Jin (CHN)
BRONZE: Efimova/Korovin (RUS)

Fun fact: between 2003 and 2017, Chinese pair teams took gold at CoC all but four times. That most recent year (2017) was won by Sui/Han, and I’m personally just thrilled to see this team so early in the season again that I almost don’t care how they do. But I DO care, and I do think they’ll win. (Unless Sui is impacted by injury; seems like if that was the case they wouldn’t bother showing up to this one.)

Eyes on: Kayne/O’Shea, making their GP season debut and first-ever appearance at CoC.  They’ve placed anywhere from 2nd to 6th in previous Grand Prix seasons, so they could be a true wild card here.

DANCE:
GOLD: Sinitsina/Katsalapov (RUS)
SILVER: Chock/Bates (USA)
BRONZE: Beaudry/Sorensen (CAN)

I’ll be honest… sometimes I forget Sin/Kat are back in the mix for ice dance, despite the fact they’ve never really gone away. And yes, that means I’d forgotten they were the reigning World Silver Medalists too (!!). First-place finishes at Nepala Memorial and Shanghai Trophy earlier this season indicate they’re as strong as ever, so… get ready for a Singin’ in the Rain RD from them on their way to probable gold.

And while I’m not sure how much improvement Hawayek/Baker can make on their efforts at SkCan 2 weeks ago, I’m hoping they can give Beau/Sor a solid run on that bronze medal. (But the latter won bronze at SkAM 3 weeks ago, so… we’ll see.)

Eyes on: all three Chinese dance teams. Why? Because the only other time we see three Chinese dance teams at a major international competition is Four Continents. And while they aren’t among the top competitors in this discipline—longtime national champs Wang/Liu have a 15th at Worlds and 6th at CoC as their best finishes to date—I always enjoy seeing the progress being made.

Wednesday, November 6, 2019

Internationaux de France 2019 Recap


I don’t really have anything new to add about the pairs and dance events at Internationaux de France last weekend—though I’m sure I’ll come up with something cohesive to say about the latest extraordinary work of Papadakis/Cizeron at some point—so I’ll just focus on the most memorable parts of the singles’ events…

MEN

It occurs to me that some of these guys must have studied the GP assignments to figure out if they had any chance at gold… that is to say, is (Nathan) Chen at this event? How about (Yuzuru) Hanyu? As we know, Chen was at SkAM and at last weekend’s Internationaux de France. Hanyu was at SkCAN, and will be at NHK Trophy (I can’t believe I actually just checked that; DUH, when he’s healthy I’m not sure NHK can function without him). SO… Cup of China (this weekend) and Rostelecom Cup (next weekend) are the ones to be at this year if you’re an elite man on the GP circuit looking to make the biggest of statements about your place on skating’s map.

As it was, here on the third stop, the news wasn’t so much who was on top (Chen, of course, continuing a winning streak that started right after Pyeong Chang), but who was near the bottom (Shoma Uno)… as well as who seemed to think he was at the bottom until he had a bronze medal in his hands. In the case of the latter (home country fave Kevin Aymoz), it was a big miss on a triple lutz that led him to tears after the SP. But it was one of those events where everyone in the SP made significant mistakes—including Chen, who resurrected his messy triple axel—so when the dust settled, Aymoz was already in third. Then, when Uno faltered badly*, Aymoz lit up the arena despite a few stumbles. And found himself crying for a whole new reason.

*Uno won Finlandia Trophy earlier in the season (with a total score around 255), which seemed a very positive sign for the guy who currently has no full-time coach (just a “jump coach” in Takeshi Honda). But if you saw either of his performances in France you know how much unraveling is going on with Uno as of now.   

LADIES

I did better on my GP France predictions than I thought I would (for once!). But while I got the podium placement of the Russian ladies correct—helped along, of course, by Alena Kostornaia’s stellar triple axels and Alina Zagitova’s occasional jump errors—but I wasn’t sure Mariah Bell would be able to triumph over the ever-powerful Kaori Sakamoto. But look what happened! Bell went clean on both programs (Even outscoring Zags in the free skate!), and while Sakamoto delivered another strong edition of her Matrix free skate, a fall on the double axel in the short helped ensure it wasn’t even a close call… bronze for Bell by close to 13 points.

Friday, November 1, 2019

Internationaux de France 2019-- Previews & Predictions


This third stop on the senior GP circuit has been known as Internationaux de France since 2016—long enough for me to stop calling it Trophee Eric Bompard; also long enough to embrace this year’s hashtag for the event (#IFP2019, or Internationaux (de) France Patinage en Francais). Let’s see who’s on deck for this week:

MEN
GOLD: Nathan Chen (USA)
SILVER: Shoma Uno (JPN)
BRONZE: Kevin Aymoz (FRA)

Chen, the reigning World Champion, has already thrown down a pair of winning performances to establish his place in the 2019-20 season. While he’s also said he’s got work yet to do, a flawed Chen is still highly likely to defeat the rest of this IDF field. Uno, who may or may not have relatively healthy ankles right now, reportedly only has a “jump coach” (Two-time World Bronze Medalist Takeshi Honda) this season. Will be as reliable a podium pick as ever? I’m looking at his recent Finlandia Trophy win and saying yes. The bronze pick is trickier, with two Russian men competing with a lot of GP bronze medals between them (Alexander Samarin and Sergei Voronov). But Voronov is now 32, and frankly I don’t know that he’ll be able to keep pace once the free skate gets going. Samarin (age 21) can keep the pace, but his skating in general is a paler shade of beige for me regardless of the program difficulty. So I’m casting both Russian options aside in favor of France’s own Kevin Aymoz, who appears on track to be the biggest singles start to emerge from that country since Brian Joubert a decade ago.

Eyes on: Tomoki Hiwatashi, the 19 year-old pewter medalist from this year’s U.S. Nationals making his GP debut here. He was only 5th at the U.S. International Classic in September, but after Camden Pulkinen established himself with a strong 4th place GP debut last week, Hiwatashi surely wants to make a powerful first impression of his own.


DANCE:
GOLD: Papadakis/Cizeron (FRA)
SILVER: Chock/Bates (USA)
BRONZE: Guignard/Fabbri (ITA)

Papa/Ciz established itself as The Top French Team Winning at This French Event back in 2014, and of course they’ve won just a few major titles since then. Come early for their ‘80s inspired RD to music from Fame; stay for a free dance that doesn’t necessarily harken to their lyrical FDs from seasons past. Chock/Bates I’ve put over the Italian team, not just because they tend to place higher in general (6th at Worlds last year to Guig/Fab’s 8th) but because their Egyptian Snake Dance FD is FIERCE. Don’t miss it.


EYES ON: the Canadian dance team of Soucisse/Firus, making their GP debut this season with a Jersey Boys RD and a Tom Jones medley for their free dance. Sounds like fun! Hope it looks like fun too. 

--
LADIES:
GOLD: Alena Kostornaia (RUS)
SILVER: Alina Zagitova (RUS)
BRONZE: Kaori Sakamoto (JPN)

And the Russia-on-Russia showdowns start… now! Zags vs. Kosto. Who will win? I’m going with Kosto for all the jump difficulty reasons you might expect. (Triple axels are Kosto’s specialty, as I mentioned in this post a few weeks ago.) AND, unlike some of the Russian senior newbies, her component scores come a lot more honestly. But having said that, Zags will be right there if Kosto didn’t bring all her jumps to France.

Bronze is tough, again. Mariah Bell’s consistency keeps improving, and I can’t wait to see the finished product of her SP choreo’d by Adam Rippon. But up against three different Japanese women, two of whom are podium capable for sure… I’ve gotta go with one of them. I’m picking Sakamoto, who just missed the podium at SkAM last month.

EYES ON: Mae-Berniece Meite… just because I’m always rooting for her to have her best skate at GP France. Also because Rippon did choreo for her, too (a FS to Adele’s “Hometown Glory”).


PAIRS:
GOLD: Mishina/Galliamov (RUS)
SILVER: Pavliuchenko/Khodykin (RUS)
BRONZE: Denney/Frazier (USA)

What we have here are a couple of senior GP rookies from Russia who are likely to be near and/or at the top despite the experience of much of the rest. I’m choosing the recent Nebelhorn winners to repeat victory here (get ready for Wa/Po flashbacks with their “Je Suis Malade” SP), with recent SkAM silver medalists Pav/Kho as runners-up. Either US team could get bronze, and since I predicted CGLD (Cain-Gribble/LeDuc) at SkAM and got it wrong, I’ll go with Denney/Frazier this time. Apologies if doing so results in another opposite finish… I’m really not trying to jinx anyone!


EYES ON: Ziegler/Keifer of Austria, who have been 4th at GP events many, many times. To see them make a GP podium for the first time might be this week’s equivalent of Piper Gilles’ victorious Kiss-n-Cry freakout from SkCAN. Just sayin’!

Thursday, October 31, 2019

Skate Canada 2019 Recap


What stood out at Skate Canada this year? Let's see...

MEN

+      There were at least three great surprises at SkCan last weekend, and two of them came with the men. One was Camden Pulkinen’s 2nd-place SP (and subsequent shocked reaction in the Kiss’n’Cry), which also happened to be his senior GP debut. Another was Nam Nguyen winning 2nd place overall, a feat I wasn’t sure we’d ever see him accomplish! (BTW I intimated last week that Nguyen had yet to make the podium at SkCan… while that was true, he did win bronze at Skate America back in 2014.) Can Nguyen keep this going? Stay tuned for his results at Rostelecom Cup.

+    Oh, and while Yuzuru Hanyu’s victory was most definitely NOT a surprise, this was his first-ever SkCan gold. He has three silvers from past SkCan attempts; one of them dates back to 2013.

LADIES

+      It was a high risk/reward event as advertised, with most of the high risks paying off… Sasha Trusova isn’t allowed to put quads in her SP (yet), so without a triple axel in her arsenal she had to save her heavy hitters for the free skate—and with the exception of the quad salchow, they all worked in her favor for a victory of nearly 11 points over silver medalist Rika Kihira. Kihira, in turn, nailed 2 triple axels (stepping out of the third one) in Kelowna, securing 2nd place over Young You by nearly 13 points. And while You only went 1-for-2 in terms of triple axel success, it was enough to make the difference for bronze over Bradie Tennell.  (Who has 2 very strong programs this year, and skated them quite well at SkCAN… but alas, no medal this time.)

+      Trusova’s win set off a new version of what I always think is a highly valuable debate about component scores. (It also perpetuated the newer debate about the toll quad jumps might be taking on a teenage or prepubescent girl’s physical health and development, but that’s a whole blog post in itself.) Trusova’s average component score was an 8.43, while Kihira averaged an 8.94, Young You averaged 8.16, Tennell averaged 8.70, and Evgenia Medvedeva (who finished a disappointing 5th) averaged 9.22. The question hanging in this particular competition: should the components of a 15 year old senior “rookie” such as Trusova-- and Young You, for that matter—be within-a-point compatible with three more seasoned competitors, one of whom has logged time on both world and Olympic podiums? Does jump difficulty equate with better skating skills, music interpretation, and performance?     

PAIRS

+      Boikova/Kozlovskii won this event in a way that made me say sorry I doubted you; I won’t make that mistake again.(In other words, they were quite good.)

+      Meanwhile, Tarasova/Morozov almost lost the bronze to the Knierims… which can either be interpreted to mean the American team has really improved in the off-season, or the Russian team faltered in a big bad way. (My interpretation: a little bit of both, but with a decisive lean towards Russian faltering.)

+      And home country Canada had to be equal parts disappointed with Moore-Towers/Marinaro’s failure to top the podium, and delighted with Ilyushechkina/Bilodeau’s ability to make such a strong impression with their 5th place GP debut. Ily/Bilo skate like a brand new team that was told: OK you two, every other pair trying to make the 2022 Beijing Olympics has a full year on you…so GET MOVING. Which is true. Which is also to say they already look like a team in the mix as much as any of them.

DANCE

+      Surprise #3 (remember I said there were at least 3 of them) was, of course, Gilles/Poirier’s upset win over Hubbell/Donohue… their first Grand Prix win in eight seasons, SIXTEEN events, and NINE trips to the podium. And while I still don’t think “Both Sides Now” necessarily tops last year’s “Vincent”, it appears to be excelling at a more accessible level, if that makes sense.

+      It was a noteworthy treat to get an apples-to-apples (or at least, Gala to Honeycrisp) study in free dance when both Popova/Mozgov and Lajoie/Lagha skated back to back with their “Bohemian Rhapsody” programs. Who wore it better? Advantage La/La, who scored 5 points above Pop/Moz and finished the day two placements higher.

+      One more note about music, which comes with one more slight change of heart: I was thrilled when I heard Fear/Gibson were taking on a Madonna medley this year, but was somewhat disappointed to find that the FD was bookended by the same song (“Vogue”). Since I’m reasonably knowledgeable of Madonna’s discography, my mind ran to all the other options: “Holiday”… “Deeper and Deeper”… “Ray of Light”… “Causing a Commotion”… (no, just kidding, the interim between True Blue and Like a Prayer was a lousy part of Madonna History). Using “Vogue” twice? Really? But now that I’ve watched it a couple times, I think it kinda has to be that way for the sake of the ending. “Vogue” has a great, splashy, definitive ending. Not many songs do. (Yeah, I could still make an argument for “Express Yourself”, but the groove on that one is very similar and probably not worth the exchange.) In any case, Fear/Gibson nabbed their first-ever GP medal at SkCan so I doubt they’re looking to re-work anything too drastically at the moment.

Friday, October 25, 2019

2019 Skate Canada International: Previews & Predictions

I love how fast everything starts rolling once the ISU Grand Prix season comes along... even if it sends bloggers like me into a tailspin at times!

Here are some guesses for the action in Kelowna, B.C. this weekend: 


DANCE

GOLD: Hubbell/Donohue (USA)
SILVER: Gilles/Poirier (CAN)
BRONZE: Hawayek/Baker (USA)

Let’s be honest-- I’m pretty much going by world rank here. If you read my Skate America recap, and/or followed my Twitter feed, you know I’m not yet a fan of H/D’s free dance this season. But, barring a skating-world disaster, they’ll win this one. To be honest, I’m not yet a full-blown fan of the new Gilles/Poirier “Both Sides Now” FD either (after having seen it at the Autumn Classic last month), but I’m required to cut them some slack because I’m not sure how they can top their “Vincent” FD from last season. On the other hand, I DID enjoy Hawayek/Baker’s FD when I caught it at Nebelhorn Trophy (Sharp!! I wrote in my notes). So don't miss that!

Eyes on: Marjorie Lajoie/Zachary Lagha of Canada, the young’uns (18 and 20) and current World Junior Champs, making their GP debut on home ice this weekend. 


LADIES

GOLD: Alexandra Trusova (RUS)
SILVER: Rika Kihira (JPN)
BRONZE: Evgenia Medvedeva (RUS)

Dang, does this SkCAN ladies field make last week’s impressive ladies roster look like amateur night or what? Notice how I don’t have Bradie Tennell (SkAM’s silver medalist) on the podium—that’s because I think she’ll do very well to place 4th or 5th here. Same thing with reigning Olympic Silver Medalist/ 2017 World Champion Medvedeva. Last year was a “rebuilding” season for her; she looks better and better with each event. Still, stacked against one young lady bearing multiple consistent quads (Trusova), and one with at least a fairly consistent triple axel (Kihira, who may or may not be introducing a quad this year too), I’m not confident that even a spot-on Medved can win. Again, a medal of any color will be a triumph for the ladies of SkCAN.

Eyes on: Young You, who first made headlines winning the South Korean Nationals at age ELEVEN. Now 15, she’s got two Top 10 World Junior finishes under her cap and makes her GP debut here at SkCAN. (And may be another one attempting a triple axel.)

PAIRS:
GOLD: Tarasova/Morozov (RUS)
SILVER: Boikova/Kozlovskii (RUS)
BRONZE: Moore-Towers/Marinaro (CAN)

I haven’t caught a lot of early-season pairs action, so I had to look up the music being used to have at least a vague sense of familiarity… and it appears Tara/Moro (everyone’s favorite blonde & ginger Russian team) are taking on Bolero for their SP. I think that’s as strong a sign as any that their brand of GP hardball isn’t expected to let up anytime soon. I also expect the Russian teenager team (Boi/Koz) to capture silver over M-T/M, who remain a reliable team… if not necessarily one that’s still improving.

Eyes on: The new Canadian partnership of Ilyushechkina/Bilodeau; she was with Dylan Moscovitch until last he retired last year, and Bilodeau was partnered with Julianne Seguin until July 2018. Together, Ilyushodeau already claimed an impressive 3rd at Finlandia Trophy this season. (Does anyone know if Seguin has re-partnered yet? I'd like to see her back in competition too.)

MEN:
GOLD: Yuzuru Hanyu (JPN)
SILVER: Matteo Rizzo (ITA)
BRONZE: Keiji Tanaka (JPN)

I know, I know… this is the fourth trip Hanyu has made to SkCAN, and so far he’s yet to win anything higher than silver. But like Nathan Chen last weekend, I just don’t see any of the men in this field beating him, even on his worst day. (Apologies to Hanyu if I just jinxed him for the worst upset ever.) And if you’re thinking I wonder what she’s thinking with Tanaka in 3rd; his only GP medal was won FOUR years ago… I admit it’s a risk, but Tanaka’s also coming off a win at the U.S. International Classic. So I haven’t completely lost it… yet.


Eyes on: Nam Nguyen, Nicolas Nadeau, and Roman Sadovsky (ages 21, 22, and 20, respectively), Canada’s representatives at the event, all eager to get on the SkCAN podium for the first time.

Thursday, October 24, 2019

Skate America 2019 Recap


Let's take a quick look back at last weekend's Skate America, shall we? 


MEN: 
I kind of felt like no one wanted to even try to challenge Nathan Chen. There were so many missed or popped quads in this discipline, it either makes you appreciate the first-ever pair of quad lutzes landed by Anna Shcherbakova all the more… or it makes you all the more worried for what the women’s event might become if there’s an onslaught of quad jumps.

Glad to see Keegan Messing representing as well as he did (3rd in SP, 4th overall), even if he wasn’t able to perform his free skate well enough to make the podium. 

On the other hand, it was rough to see Michal Brezina down in 11th place overall when just a year ago he was having such a renaissance season (2 silvers on the GP circuit). Alexei Bychenko, too, was tough to watch. I’ve been a big fan of his efforts in recent years, but his free skate performance to Pirates of the Caribbean felt so laborious and tired to me, I was certain he’d recycled it from another season. (He didn’t.)

LADIES:

When Shcherbakova squeaked out a landing, then caught an edge and fell during her SP footwork, I’m sure a lot of people rolled their eyes and wondered what the ShcherbetHype was all about… but it all became clear about 24 hours later. What can you do with a competitor that lands TWO quad lutzes (and everything else she attempts, including six triples) but put her in 1st? We’ll likely get a similar question at Skate Canada this coming week as Alexandra Trusova takes this ice in her senior GP debut.

Shcherbet’s historic performance all but stole the thunder from other medalists, both of whom had extremely impressive skates in their own right. USA’s Bradie Tennell (silver medalist) has two programs this season that showcase her very nicely, and she skated both of them virtually error-free in Las Vegas—but, alas, even her toughest triple-triple combos pale alongside quad-triple combos in terms of base value.

And Elizaveta Tuktamysheva (RUS), now putting the senior in seniors as a Russian woman competing at the ripe old (!!) age of nearly 23, could only snag bronze despite landing three triple axels at SkAM. In her case, lower-than-expected component scores were partially to blame. “She does a lot of posing (rather than complex transitions),” offered Johnny Weir during the NBC coverage. We’ll have to wait until her next GP event (Cup of China) to see if anything changes in terms of her choreography.

Pairs: 
Did anyone else feel like they were at U.S. Nationals when Denney/Frazier were completing their Lion King free skate? That’s how significant this virtually clean performance seemed to be from a team that has S T R U G G L E D with injuries, and the ability to gain any level of competitive consistency because of said injuries. Their bronze medal at SkAM—their first GP medal of any kind in three years— came behind the first GP silver medal for Pavliuchenko/Khodykin, and the first GP gold for Peng/Jin. 

Denney/Frazier will get a chance to gain more competitive traction at the GP France in a few weeks.

Dance: 
As with many of you, my predictions that come closest to accurate at SkAM were in ice dance… and even with that, I completely missed the mark for the bronze medal! No complaints on the actual results, though, as Fournier-Beaudry/Sorensen delivered a very enjoyable pair of performances to earn their first-ever GP medal. (This is their first full season competing for Canada; from 2013-18 they represented Denmark.)

While Hubbell/Donohue came in 1st at SkAM overall, Russia’s Stepanova/Bukin won the Free Dance. And while (as usual) I’m no expert on the technical differences between different teams/performances, here’s what leapt to mind as I sat down to string together a few feelings about H/D’s FD to music from the recent remake of A Star is Born

(Hum the McDonalds jingle here)

Bah da bah bah bah… NOT loving it. (At least, not yet.)

I’ve been hot and cold on H/D programs throughout their partnership, and of course it’s early in the season so it may be subject to change anyway. But whether it’s the country groove of “Alibi” (the upbeat portion of the dance), the dialogue snippets from the film (never again, I always say about dialogue as I recall a certain FD to Ghost), or the lack of a gorgeous lift (or ANY lift) during the climactic moments of “Shallow”, I’m just not feeling much of their program in its current state. H/D are competing at Skate Canada this coming weekend, so perhaps we’ll all discuss this on Twitter again in a few days (as many of us did during SkAM).

One more thing about last weekend’s ice dance competition: what stood out for me, aside from those at the top, were Careirra/Ponomarenko’s Spanish-themed FD and Smart/Diaz’s circus-inspired one… the latter of which was charming and inventive (at least, to me), and didn’t get as much Twitter love as I thought it deserved. But it did generate a 4th place finish, which is this Spanish team’s best GP result to date. (Maybe Diaz just needs a different costume to win over some fans?)