2019 Cup of China: Preview & Predictions

It’s baa-ack!

Finland took its place as a GP site last year, but Cup of China (established 2003; replacing Germany on the GP circuit) has returned as the fourth stop on the 2019 ISU Grand Prix. 

And since this is an event where the action starts at 2:30 AM Eastern Time Friday, I’ve got to commit ALL predictions before heading to bed tonight! (Though I have mad respect for those of you who are able to schedule your entire weekend around CoC, I must decline as always… my sleep schedule is jacked-up enough!)

So let’s get to it!

MEN

GOLD: Keiji Tanaka (JPN)

SILVER: Boyang Jin (CHN)

BRONZE: Keegan Messing (CAN)

Wow, I can’t think of the last GP men’s event I witnessed that was so WIDE OPEN! Reigning World Bronze Medalist Vincent Zhou was originally scheduled for CoC, but since he’s elected to skip the entire GP season to focus on his studies at Brown University, the highest placement of anyone here at the last Worlds is 5^th (Jin) and 7^th (Matteo Rizzo of Italy). 

So… while I could lean on those World placements for predictions, I think it makes more sense to rest one arm on those placements, and rest the other on more recent performances. That’s why I’m (cautiously) calling on recent SkCan bronze medalist Tanaka to win his first-ever GP gold in China. But I’m predicting Jin for medals with the assumption that he’ll shine much brighter in his home country event than he did at SkCan. If I’m wrong about that, either Rizzo or USA’s Camden Pulkinen could step up.

Eyes on: Han Yan of China. But, wait… he’s retired! you say. OR IS HE…???

LADIES

GOLD: Anna Shcherbakova (RUS)

SILVER: Elizaveta Tuktamysheva (RUS)

BRONZE: Satoko Miyahara (JPN)

Another GP week, another Russian teen in the top spot? Yep, that’s my guess. Though since we’re on the back half of the circuit now, the names will be more familiar as they earn their spots in the Final…

And just so you know: of the three names on my podium predictions, Miyahara remains my favorite. I’d have her higher, but based on the consistency levels of Shcherbet and The Empress Tukta it doesn’t make sense to do so.

Eyes on: Sofia Samodurova. Who?? The Russian teen that beat the crowds, got to the senior scene last year, and came away with a Europeans championship and an 8^th place finish at Worlds. It’ll be interesting to see if she can transcend any and all traces of Sophomore Slump, especially when she’s not one of Russia’s “A” team.

PAIRS:

GOLD: Sui/Han (CHN)

SILVER: Peng/Jin (CHN)

BRONZE: Efimova/Korovin (RUS)

Fun fact: between 2003 and 2017, Chinese pair teams took gold at CoC all but four times. That most recent year (2017) was won by Sui/Han, and I’m personally just thrilled to see this team so early in the season again that I almost don’t care how they do. But I DO care, and I do think they’ll win. (Unless Sui is impacted by injury; seems like if that was the case they wouldn’t bother showing up to this one.)

Eyes on: Kayne/O’Shea, making their GP season debut and first-ever appearance at CoC.  They’ve placed anywhere from 2^nd to 6^th in previous Grand Prix seasons, so they could be a true wild card here.

DANCE:

GOLD: Sinitsina/Katsalapov (RUS)

SILVER: Chock/Bates (USA)

BRONZE: Beaudry/Sorensen (CAN)

I’ll be honest… sometimes I forget Sin/Kat are back in the mix for ice dance, despite the fact they’ve never really gone away. And yes, that means I’d forgotten they were the reigning World Silver Medalists too (!!). First-place finishes at Nepala Memorial and Shanghai Trophy earlier this season indicate they’re as strong as ever, so… get ready for a Singin’ in the Rain RD from them on their way to probable gold.

And while I’m not sure how much improvement Hawayek/Baker can make on their efforts at SkCan 2 weeks ago, I’m hoping they can give Beau/Sor a solid run on that bronze medal. (But the latter won bronze at SkAM 3 weeks ago, so… we’ll see.)

Eyes on: all three Chinese dance teams. Why? Because the only other time we see three Chinese dance teams at a major international competition is Four Continents. And while they aren’t among the top competitors in this discipline—longtime national champs Wang/Liu have a 15^th at Worlds and 6^th at CoC as their best finishes to date—I always enjoy seeing the progress being made.