Skate Canada International 2018: Preview/Predictions

The new Olympic cycle might just be impacting Canada more than any other major player in elite figure skating. Patrick Chan retired, Duhamel/Radford retired, Virtue/Moir retired (for now?? again???), and reigning world champion Kaetlyn Osmond is on a break, undecided about her future in the sport. All have long been dominating forces at Skate Canada International for obvious reasons. Can this season’s “home team”—four members of which are making their senior GP debut here—find a place on their respective SCI podiums?

In almost all disciplines, I think the answer is still yes. Here are my predictions. 

MEN (Starts Friday, 3:52 Eastern)

Gold: Shoma Uno (JPN)

Silver: Kazuki Tomono (JPN)

Bronze: Keegan Messing (CAN)

It’s hard to dispute Uno’s place as the favorite this year… a reigning Olympic and World Silver Medalist who won SkCAN last year, and already won once internationally this season (Lombardia Trophy). Tomono, on the other hand, is really known best at this point for one thing: his super-solid West Side Story free skate that put him in the Top 5 at last year’s Worlds at age 19. So consider this prediction a calculated risk on my part. Canada’s (or really, Alaska’s) own Messing might very well claim that silver spot, as he seems to have a new lease on his skating life since making Canada’s 2018 Olympic team. But there are still enough jumping inconsistencies in his game for me to put him behind Tomono here.

Eyes on: Jason Brown. Not only to support this new phase of his career (training under Brian Orser and Tracy Wilson), and see how he’s progressing… but to marvel at how he looks without his trademark ponytail. (Or to mourn the passing of said ponytail, for some)

LADIES (Starts Friday, 8:45 Eastern)

Gold: Elizaveta Tuktamysheva (RUS)

Silver: Evgenia Medvedeva (RUS)

Bronze: Wakaba Higuchi (JPN)

You’ve probably heard that reigning OSM Medvedeva left Eteri Tutberidze’s camp over the summer and, like Jason, now trains with Orser & Wilson in Canada. So she might not yet be at top form as she continues with the transition. But even if she was, I’m not sure I could resist putting Tukta on top… Miss Everything of 2015 has roared back to life with triple axels galore and victories both at Finlandia Trophy and Lombardia Trophy (even though said triple axels got negative GOEs). She’s also become a force of fluent English wit and sass on Twitter, whether she’s being self-deprecating or calling out racist Russian journalists. I’m rooting for both of these young women in a big way!

Eyes on: Daria Panenkova, a 15 year old Russian (and another recent Tutberidze student gone elsewhere) in her first of two Senior Grand Prix events this season.

PAIRS (Starts Friday, 2:27 Eastern)

Gold: Moore-Towers/Marinaro (CAN)

Silver: James/Cipres (FRA)

Bronze: Peng/Jin (CHN)

M-T/M are probably the Canadians Most Likely To (win gold), so I hope they’re able to handle the home team pressure here as it may prove a good indicator of future situations, such as Worlds ’19.

Eyes on: Boikova/Kozlovskii, a young Russian pair that held their own at Finlandia Trophy and Lombardia Trophy earlier in the season (making the podium each time).

DANCE (Starts Friday, 7:10 Eastern)

Gold: Hubbell/Donohue (USA)

Silver: Gilles/Poirier (CAN)

Bronze: Sinitsina/Katsalapov (RUS)

G/P’s free dance—to “Vincent (Starry Starry Night)”—is flat-out exquisite. I don’t know how much of a run they can honestly give H/D since they tend to score so much lower in general (6^th at Worlds this year compared to H/D’s 2^nd, for example), but I can’t wait to see them try.

Eyes on:

Lauriault/LeGac (FRA), Skoptcova/Aleshin (RUS), and Smart/Diaz (ESP), all of whom will be free dancing to the work of specific pop/rock stars (Bruno Mars, Michael Jackson, and The Beatles, respectively).

Six Takeaways from 2018 Skate America

I came up with a half dozen of the happenings at this year’s Skate America that I found the most noteworthy. (Actually I came up with a longer list, but whittled it down for your sake and mine! Here’s what I’ve got, in no particular order:

+  East Coast Chen. There was plenty of noise made (at least on Twitter) about Nathan Chen’s mighty head of hair, but it’s just as well that Kevin Reynolds proved once again he forever wins that contest. For of course it was Chen’s jumping prowess and marvelously constructed/executed programs that deserved the most attention. His efforts at SkAM were about what I’d have counted on IF he was still training on the west coast, and IF he hadn’t fared poorly at Japan Open a few weeks ahead of SKam. But he’s Nathan, so I’m learning to expect the unexpected.

+  Fifth Place?? I’d picked Vincent Zhou to win bronze at SkAM, and IMHO he did at least that well. But as anyone knows that was watching, the newly-turned 18 year old got dinged HARD for jumps that were deemed underrated as per new standards laid down by the ISU. Despite landings that commentators and spectators alike insisted to be “clean”, Zhou got UR calls on SIX different jumping passes total (2 in the SP; 4 in the FS) and most calls came on his biggest point-getters. The result was a finish that was .06 away from 4^th, and .69 away from 3^rd. Yes, it’s only SkAM and not Nationals or Worlds, but in terms of racking up points in hopes of making the GP Final? He probably can’t now. No matter how well he might do at his next event (NHK), the likelihood of making the Final with a 5^th—worth only 7 points compared to 11 for a 3^rd and 13 for a 2^nd—is pretty low.

+  Now Hiring: One pairs coach. As SkAM unfolded we learned that current U.S. champs Scimeca-Knierim/Knierim had parted ways with Aljona Savchenko, who’d begun coaching them over the summer. How much that affected their overall performance is a matter of opinion I suppose; on the other hand, it’s a matter of fact that Cain/LeDuc were the U.S. team on the podium this time.

+  Podium so close… Senior GP rookie dance team McNamara/Carpenter finished only .05 (!!!) behind SkAM Bronze Medalists Zahorski/Guerreiro.

+  And podium so close… until it wasn’t. While it’s a shame that Julian Yee had a classic case of Coming Undone After Doing So Well—3^rd in the SP, but 9^th in the FS and 7^th overall—it’s exciting to know so early in the season what he’s capable of. He’ll get another chance to represent Malaysia to new figure skating heights at Rostelecom Cup in a few weeks.

+  Last but not least, some Notes of a Musical Nature…

-- The Good: Kaori Sakamoto’s SP, which is titled “From My First Moment” but is actually Eric Satie’s Gymnopedie #1 with lyrics and vocals (the latter courtesy of Charlotte Church). Can you name a U.S. champion figure skater that utilized Satie’s instrumental during her competitive career? (If so, leave a comment)

-- The Bad: Alexei Bychenko’s “Requiem for a Dream” FS. Because honestly, I could have gone the rest of my life without hearing that in competition again.

-- The HUH?: Michal Brezina, with a free skate that started with Spencer Davis Group’s “I’m a Man” but jumped all too soon into ACDC’s “Thunderstruck”… definitely an oil/water combination to me, even though he came away with his first GP medal in four years.

Skate America 2018: Ladies and Dance Predictions

Now let’s move to the LADIES (starts at 10:19 PM Eastern Time Saturday):

Gold: Satoko Miyahara (JPN)

Silver: Sofia Samodurova (RUS)

Bronze: Bradie Tennell (USA)

This is a field of 11, not 12, as Russia’s Elena Radionova scratched earlier this week with a back injury and was not replaced. That means the Russian contingency consists of 16 year-old Samodurova—new to the senior GP, but 2^nd place winner at Lombardia Trophy recently—and 17 year-old Polina Tsurskaya, who showed promise in last year’s GP but only finished 5^th at Russian Nationals (missing the Olympic team). I expect Samodurova to make a splash here, but if Miyahara can fully rotate her jumps—particularly the triple lutz, which she’s reportedly been UR’ing in SkAM practices—then I think she can “complete package” her way to 1^st place here.

The U.S. ladies field may be surprisingly obscure at this year’s SkAM (aside from reigning champ Bradie Tennell of course), but remember that both Ashley Wagner and Mirai Nagasu are taking the “break” that you’d expect veterans like them to take once their second Olympic run was over and they weren’t quite ready to call it a career just yet. This sends other potential headliners such as Karen Chen and Mariah Bell to later GP events, although Chen just scratched from her first event (GP Finland) due to injury… in any case, USFS chose Starr Andrews (6^th at Nationals) and Megan Wessenberg (17^th at Nats) to represent, so it’ll be interesting to see how each responds to their own particular sphere of pressure. As for Tennell, who beat out Evgenia Medvedeva (!) for gold at the Autumn Classic earlier this season, I think she’d do well to duplicate her SkAM results from last year.

Eyes on: Loena Hendrickx of Belgium… not only because she’s an up-and-comer (5^th last Euros, 9^th last Worlds, 3^rd at Nebelhorn, but because when I tried to watch her Nebelhorn FS on YouTube, it was audioblocked :( … seeing it live might be the only way!

And finally, ICE DANCE (starting at 12:19 AM Eastern Time Sunday):

Gold- Hubbell/Donohue (USA)

Silver Guignard/Fabbri (ITA)

Bronze Zagorski/Guerreiro (RUS)

I went mostly by worlds standings for this; with H/D the only ones in this field to medal last spring, they’re the clear favorite here. Both the Italian and Russian teams were further down the pecking order— Zag/Guer was 8^th ; G/F 9^th – but I’m putting the Italians ahead based on their 1^st place at Lombardia Trophy.

Eyes on: McNamara/Carpenter is the one Americans are likely to pay the most attention to, as they turned in a 5^th place GP finish last year and are one of the teams gunning for the vacancy left by the currently-hiatusing Shibutanis. But my attention will be on a new-to-the-GP British team of Lilah Fear and Lewis Gibson, whose Free Dance is an infectious mix of Rose Royce, Donna Summer, Earth Wind & Fire, and Michael Jackson. They’re likely to skate early, but try to catch it—unless you despise disco, that is…

Skate America 2018: Pairs & Men's Predictions

OK! Time to talk competitors… or at least, competitors that have a better shot at the Skate America podium this weekend. As usual I’m going by event order:

PAIRS (Starts at 10:30 PM Eastern Time Friday)

Gold- Tarasova/Morozov  (RUS)

Silver- Efimova/Korovin (RUS)

Bronze- Scimeca-Knierim/Knierim (USA)

True confession: I looked at the list of 8 pairs at this event and was surprised to see I only recognized 4 of the teams. No lie. And only one of those teams made the top 10 at the Olympics (Tarasova/Morozov); two of the other three teams are American, so…um, no top 10 of any kind there. My prediction for silver could be seen as a nod to SWR (Skating While Russian) since I’m not super-familiar with Efimova/Korovin, but they just won Nebelhorn Trophy a couple weeks ago and that’s a much more legit reason. As it happens, the team right behind them at Nebelhorn was our own S-K/K. So, yeah… let’s see if they can nab a medal here. If so, it’ll be their first GP medal in three years (and third overall).

Eyes on: Digerness/Neudecker—the #3 U.S team this weekend (Cain/LeDuc are #2)… they were the Junior National Champions last year. This is their senior GP debut.

MEN (Starts at midnight Eastern Time Saturday)

Gold- Nathan Chen (USA)

Silver- Sergei Voronov (RUS)

Bronze- Vincent Zhou (USA)

On the other hand, the men’s event caused the phrase you’re still here?? to leap to mind more than once… that’s because 28 year-old Kevin Reynolds, 28 year-old Michal Brezina, 30 year-old Alexei Bychenko AND 31 year-old Sergei Voronov comprise one-third of the SkAM field this year. And if that isn’t interesting enough… I think the oldest of the ones I just named stands the best chance of medaling. (It helps that he took 2^nd at Nepela Trophy last month.)

The other side of the men’s SkAM spectrum contains young-uns, among them new Yale undergrad (and reigning World Champ) Chen and still-only-17 Zhou. From what I’ve seen and/or read, neither of them are close to their “A” game right now—Chen’s been ill and is still adjusting to his whole new Ivy League world, and Zhou dealt with back injuries over the summer—but even so, I think they’ll outskate the rest of the pack.

Eyes on: Nam Nguyen—the 20 year-old Canadian has had a whole lot more downs than ups in recent years, but he pulled together a win for September’s U.S. Classic… could be the start of something bigger. Let’s see what he does here.

LADIES AND DANCE PREDICTIONS TOMORROW…

Hello Skating Fans, and Here We Go Again

Welcome once again to a new season of State of the Skate, where it all starts with good intentions for posts in late summer/early fall, and it all REALLY starts around this date in October… at least, it’s been this way for the past few years.

Once again there were plenty of figure skating-related things to talk about in the off-season. Adam Rippon’s meteoric rise in pop culture. Gracie Gold on the comeback trail. Evgenia Medvedeva and Jason Brown’s respective moves to Canada. Elizaveta Tuktamysheva’s Twitter feed. Denis Ten. Good Lord, Denis Ten. Still so hard to wrap my head around that one.

And then there are all the things I think about writing here that have nothing to do with figure skating. I’ve probably mentioned them before, kind of like I’ve “mentioned” giving this entire blog a makeover…

But alas, we are just a couple days away from the start of the 2018-19 ISU Grand Prix.

No, gotta rephrase (because it feels much more like this…)

SKATE AMERICA KICKS OFF THE 2018-19 ISU GP SEASON THIS FRIDAY!!! WOOOT!!!!

So, if you’re not clear yet on where to find coverage in these post-IceNetwork times… this might help   .

Want to get a look at who’s competing? The Wiki page for 2018 Skate America is up to date…

And if you’re new here, please allow me to (re)introduce myself with this post from almost exactly two years ago… I don’t think a whole lot has changed!

  

I’ll be back tomorrow with some predictions!

P.S. If you leave a comment I’ll be SO excited for proof that SOTS still gets readers!