2017 ISU Grand Prix Round 2: Skate Canada International Preview & Predictions

Skate Canada International, aka the 2^nd stop on this year’s GP circuit, gets the competition ball rolling around 3PM Eastern today (Friday). Here are my guesses as to how the podiums will look on Saturday:

LADIES:

GOLD: Kaitlyn Osmond (CAN)

SILVER: Maria Sotskova (RUS)

BRONZE: Ashley Wagner (USA)

DARK HORSE: Rika Hongo (JPN), Marin Honda (JPN)

WILD CARD: Anna Pogorilaya (RUS), Karen Chen (USA)

Y’all know I like me some big, beautiful Osmond jumps, and last year she started to get her groove in a big way at this event (finishing 2^nd behind Evgenia Medvedeva). The World Champ isn't here this time, so I’ll pick the reigning World Silver Medalist instead. As for the 2016 WSM (Wagner), I’m sorta reserving judgment on these “revisited” programs of hers—“Hip Hip Chin Chin” for the SP; Moulin Rouge (supplanting her planned La La Land) for the FS—because I’m admittedly disappointed, particularly about Rouge 3.0. But, as I say… trying to reserve judgment for now.

On the other hand, Chen recently announced she was bailing on her new Carmen FS in favor of an even newer one—a self-choreographed routine to Bill Conti’s Slow Dancing in the Big City. Color me intrigued.

DANCE:

GOLD: Virtue/Moir (CAN)

SILVER: Weaver/Poje (CAN)

BRONZE: Hubbell/Donohue (USA)

DARK HORSE: Loboda/Drozd (RUS)

WILD CARD: Hawayek/Baker (USA)

Meanwhile… we’ve got V/M doing Moulin Rouge (1.0) and W/P bringing back the Je Suis Malade FS that they initially used way back in 2012! Never a dull moment. AND we have perennial U.S. Bronze Medalists Hub/Don declaring third place isn’t good enough for them anymore. But can they do better than bronze here? Stay tuned…

MEN:

GOLD: Shoma Uno (JPN)

SILVER: Patrick Chan (CAN)

BRONZE: Jason Brown (USA)

DARK HORSE: Takahito Mura (JPN), Alexander Samarin (RUS)

WILD CARD: Keegan Messing (CAN)

At the top I have the World Silver Medalist that is determined to give Yuzuru Hanyu a run for his money, both at home and abroad, this season. Following him are two guys known more for their impeccable artistry… that’s because Mura has become more inconsistent with time, Samarin is making his senior GP debut (translation: he’s a teenager), and former U.S. competitor Messing pretty much puts the WILD in “wild card”.

PAIRS:

GOLD: Peng/Jin (CHN)

SILVER: Duhamel/Radford (CAN)

BRONZE: Savchenko/Massot (GER)

DARK HORSE: James/Cipres (FRA)

WILD CARD: Ilyusheckina/Moscovitch (CAN)

I went largely with how everyone’s competed so far this season to make these determinations—and both Duh/Rad and Sav/Mas look to be doing some fine tuning yet on their respective programs. Attention James/Cipres (whose FS to “Say Something” is a worthy follow up to “Sounds of Silence”) and Ilyu/Mosco (who are reportedly landing throw quad salchows in practice): this is your cue to push and pull for the podium!

Look for me on Twitter (@KLBSt8ofSk8); I’ll be live-tweeting and/or commenting with the hashtag #SCI17 throughout the weekend!

2017 Rostelecom Cup Roundup

The first event of the GP season brought a couple of upsets, a few fully-expected turnouts, and of course a heaping helping of Olympic speculation. Full results and protocols can be found HERE  ; if you’re wondering how my predictions measured up, I’ll start by explaining the “rules” which are pretty similar to last year…

I get 3 points per correctly placed podium name

2 points per correctly predicted podium name

1 point per Dark Horse that reaches the podium (1/2 a point if I listed 2 Dark Horses)

And I’m calling out “Wild Cards” this year—meaning athletes that could make a splash but I haven’t followed their recent trajectory enough to say for sure—but don’t award myself any points if they make the podium.

So my score for Rostelecom was 7 points for the men’s podium… 5.5 points for the ladies… 6 points for the pairs… and 5 points for the dance, for a total of 23.5 points out of a possible 36. (Or a “batting average” of .653 if you’re a baseball fan!)

A few notes: 

MEN:   I know “no one wants to peak in October” … but dang, did these guys have to try so hard?? There were 18 points worth of deductions between 8 skaters… two of those 8 fell enough times to trigger the 2-deductions-per-fall rule that the ISU started last season… and of the 4 guys that didn’t get deductions, only one (the delightful Misha Ge) truly skated clean… albeit without any quad jumps.

Speaking of Uzbekistan’s finest… shame on me for underestimating Ge! I didn’t mention him at all in my predictions last week because I knew his jump repertoire was limited, figuring him to do no better than 5^th. But the 4^th place he earned in Moscow ties his best GP finish—which was also at Rostelecom Cup, three years ago. His next scheduled GP appearance is France, so I vow to give him more consideration there… 

The obviously headliner in the men’s event was a battle that, for me, lived up to the hype. Nathan Chen rightfully put the skating world on notice last season with a silver medal at the GP Final and a gold one at 4 Continents—defeating Yuzuru Hanyu for the first time in the latter—but his 6^th place Worlds finish was surely a disappointment to some. Whatever the reason for it (Rookie nerves? Fatigue? Boot problems? BTW does anyone know how many boots he’s worn out since adding even more quads to his arsenal?), Chen is back to doing what he does—now with an even better defined look, choreo, artistry, etc.—and while Hanyu is hardly sitting on his jumping laurels, Chen proved himself again to be a most worthy opponent. With each champ scheduled next to compete in their respective home GP assignments, we’ll have to see if both make the GP Final, as expected, to see what happens next.

LADIES: Yes, Evgenia Medvedeva fell on a double axel in her FS and the skating world gasped in shock. Yes, she still won by 39 thousand points. The best news for me, though, was seeing her stick with the Anna Karenina program rather than her previously announced FS music (which included some, but not nearly enough, of George Winston’s “January Stars”).

Carolina Kostner proved podium-worthy in Moscow just as she did at this same event four years ago. Does that bode well for her chances on bigger podiums later in the year? (Remember, she returned to the competitive scene late last season and ended up 6^th at Worlds.) Since her artistry is considered unparalleled at this point by many (Rostelecom judges aside, for they gave Medved the edge there as well)… I suppose she has a shot when those with tougher jump schedules fail to deliver (as Wakaba Higuchi, Elena Radionova, and Mariah Bell all did to some degree last weekend). Since even the likes of Tara and Johnny seem to disagree on her potential (I’ll be talking more about the NBC coverage at a later date), I’ll just say this: Kostner is the oldest (30) and still, I think, among the tallest (5’7”) of the Olympic hopefuls this season… so how can I not root for her?

Meanwhile, Mirai… oh, what to say? We hear good things, we get hopeful, we think the landings are clean… and now we hope the completed triple axel was fully rotated. But things happen, more often than not, that dim those hopes back down. Last year Nagasu was 9^th at her first GP and 5^th at her second one. This year, she came in 9^th at her first GP. So if she happens to come in 4^th or better at NHK, I guess things will be looking up. Stay tuned.

2017 ISU Grand Prix Round 1: Rostelecom Cup Predictions

As you might already know, the ISU has juggled the Grand Prix series once again… Rostelecom Cup leads it this year, with the order of subsequent GP events Skate Canada (10/27-29), Cup of China (11/3-5), NHK Trophy (11/10-12), Internationaux de France (formerly Trophee de France) (11/17-19), and Skate America (11/24-26), with the GP Final for both Junior/Senior held this year in Nagoya December 7-10.

This year icenetwork.com has LIVE coverage planned for all the GP events… BUT… the newly minted Olympic Channel, available “in more than 35 million homes” in the U.S. (according to information released upon the channel’s launch this past July), has it as well. At least, they plan to carry all the same Rostelecom coverage as IN this weekend… I happen to be one of those 35 million homes with The OC (hah—not sure if that abbreviation will work for me anywhere but here!) so I’ll be keeping a close eye on scheduling. In any case, coverage begins at 7AM EDT on 10/20.

Oh, and for NBC’s traditional 2-hour mash-up of highlights, check them out between Noon-2PM EDT this Sunday.

Here’s what I’ve got in the way of predictions this time around…

MEN

GOLD: Yuzuru Hanyu (JPN)

SILVER: Nathan Chen (USA)

BRONZE: Mikhail Kolyada (RUS)

WILD CARD: Denis Ten (KAZ), Nam Nguyen (CAN)

DARK HORSE: Grant Hochstein (USA), Dennis Vasiljevs (LAT)

If you caught Hanyu at the Autumn Classic a few weeks ago, you might think he’s in early-season top form, or you might think he’s a hot mess—it all depends on if you saw his SP or his FS. Which Hanyu will show up in Russia this weekend? Beats me, but either way, he’s still the reigning OGM and World Champ… and that’s why I’ve got him defeating Chen in their first matchup of the season. Kolyada (one of the guys currently attempting a 4lz) rebounded from a subpar SP to win Ondrej Nepela Trophy, so I think he’s a good medal bet here at well.

LADIES

GOLD: Evgenia Medvedeva (RUS)

SILVER: Wakaba Higuchi (JPN)

BRONZE: Mirai Nagasu (USA)

WILD CARD: Mariah Bell (USA), Elizabet Tursynbaeva (KAZ)

DARK HORSE: Carolina Kostner (ITA), Elena Radionova (RUS)

You probably know Nagasu is including triple axels in her programs this season (for the first time in her long, distinguished career), but word on the street is that ALL her jumps are looking stronger than ever right now. I’m not convinced yet that she’s completely turned a corner—seems like it’s always more promise than delivery, and I’ll admit last year’s “Winner Takes it All” FS was ultimately a letdown for me. But what if triple axel success gives Nagasu the lift (pun intended) she needs on other jumps or overall performances?

Kostner’s artistic prowess remains fierce, even if her jump content can’t quite compete with the 3lz/3T queens of today… and Radionova remains captivating even if her consistency has dropped off somewhat. That’s why I’ve got them both as dark horses.

PAIRS

GOLD: Tarasova/Morozov (RUS)

SILVER: Stolbova/Klimov (RUS)

BRONZE: Seguin/Bilodeau (CAN)

WILD CARD: Astakhova/Roganov (RUS)

DARK HORSE: Marchei/Hotarek (ITA)

Gold and silver is just going in order of 2017 Worlds finishes (T/M took Bronze; S/K were 5^th). Seg/Bilo actually finished behind Marchei/Hotarek last March, but the latter didn’t look particularly strong at Lombardia Trophy earlier in the fall—in fact, another Italian team (Della Monica/Guarise) finished ahead of them there.

DANCE

GOLD: Bobrova/Soloviev (RUS)

SILVER: Shibutanis (USA)

BRONZE: Gilles/Poirier (CAN)

WILD CARD: Guignard/Fabbri (ITA), Parsons/Parsons (USA)

DARK HORSE: Stepanova/Bukin (RUS)

My goodness… HOW long have Bob/Solo been on the GP circuit? (2007-8 season) And HOW many GP medals have they racked up in that time? (12)

And HOW many times have they won here at Rostelecom? (3 times in 5 attempts)

So, yeah… that’s why.

Look for me on Twitter (@KLBSt8ofSk8); I’ll be live-tweeting and/or commenting on #RostelecomCup2017 throughout the weekend!

Fall 2017 Update I: Where's that TSL Interview...??

Hi!! 

I haven’t forgotten the blog, and I definitely haven’t forgotten that figure skating’s Grand Prix (2017 edition) begins later this week. More about both of those things shortly. But first I’m gonna talk about something that, apparently, WAS forgotten.

Some of you may recall me sharing-- many, MANY months back-- that I'd been contacted to do an interview about Skating on Air with Dave Lease of THE SKATING LESSON (TSL). The results were to be posted on the TSL website and YouTube channel in coordination with my book being chosen as TSL's next book club offering.

Well, late last year we met up on Skype and recorded around 90 minutes worth of material. About the book, about televised skating of the past, and how things have changed even since the book was published, and plenty of stuff in-between. It was fun. Even though I'm terribly unaccustomed to being on the receiving end of questions!

I was initially told the edited piece would be uploaded for all to see within the next couple of weeks. Then "a couple weeks" became months. And as the 2016-17 season wore on, I tried several more times to get a response out of Dave, figuring perhaps the season had just become too busy and my "evergreen" (meaning "relevant anytime") interview was getting saved for the lull just before Worlds, or perhaps was now being saved for the off-season. Unfortunately, Dave has not responded to any of my efforts since last December.

If you've been to the TSL website lately you might presume, like me, that the site is no longer owned by Dave (though it continues to be called The Skating Lesson). The TSL channel has again become active on YouTube, with Dave back to hosting “This and That” on a regular basis since late summer. And of course, TSL's Twitter account remains active on an almost daily basis.

What's going on? I couldn't really tell you, since my final attempt to get an explanation from Dave was as fruitless as the others. At this point, you probably know more than I do!

All I know is that my TSL interview looks to have gone to that dreaded location where the sun don't shine, unicorns don't run with the rainbows, and unpurchased TV pilots meet their final resting place. We shall accept it and move on. OK? OK.

I'm sorry you didn't get to see it. I didn't think it was half-bad myself!

In the event that you’d like to read and/or listen to interviews about Skating on Air that HAVE seen the light of day, try these:

THIS takes you to Allison Manley’s review of the book—and “Episode 58” (on the list immediately to the right of the interview) is the accompanying podcast. If you’ve never given a listen to Allison’s interviews before—or haven’t done so in a while—you might want to clear some time. The Manleywoman Skatecast is no longer in production, but it remains a great body of work!

THIS is my interview with Vlad Luchianov, who maintained the World Figure Skating blog before becoming a regular contributor to IceNetwork.

THIS link contains a nice review of the book courtesy of the My Friend Amy blog (which still reviews books on the regular)…

And here's an interview she did with me too.

Oh, and while I’m in shameless self-promotion mode… if you’d rather just skip to the book’s Goodreads page…  (Oh hey, someone named Lucia just gave my book a 4-star rating this past September 28. Thanks Lucia!)

Or my publisher’s page (the preferred place to order it online):

Or finally the Amazon page, where you can order it and/or read 11 reviews averaging 4.5 stars…

As for Regular State of the Skate Stuff—stay tuned, because I plan to post an update (including Rostelecom Cup predictions) later in the week. A hint… it’s not ending. It’s EVOLVING.

Thanks for your support, as always!