It’s Nationals week here in The States! Which means it’s
time to break out the guesswork if you’re a skating blogger like me. And I’m
changing it up a little bit this time, so pay attention:
1) For the first time, I’m making a stab at the 4th
place Pewter Medalist as well as the Top 3. Because if USFS cares enough about
4th place to give it a medal, then I should care enough to predict
it... am I right?? It’s also one more chance to be dead wrong about some aspect
of this competition. So, there’s that.
2) Introducing... my inaugural picks for “Nowhere” skaters.
Inspired by what Johnny Weir said during the NBC preview shows about there
always being a skater at Nationals who “comes out of nowhere” to finish at or
near the top... I’m casting a vote as to who this year’s “Nowhere” skaters
might be among the men and ladies. But unlike the Dark Horse picks—who are
generally longshots to win or medal, but have more “ice cred”—I’m only allowing
myself ONE choice per singles discipline.
The two areas I’m guessing on today get started Thursday
afternoon and evening! Are you ready? Let’s go...
PAIRS
GOLD: Haven Denney/Brandon Frazier
SILVER: Alexa Scimeca/Chris Knierim
BRONZE: Madeline Aaron/Max Settlage
PEWTER: Dee Dee Leng/Simon Shnapir
Dark Horse: Tarah Kayne/Daniel O’Shea
I’m going with the ones we know the most about for the
podium. Denney/Frazier performed well in the GP series, earning silver at one
and getting hosed out of a bronze at the other. They have better side-by-side
landing consistency that most U.S.
pairs teams, including Scimeca/Knierim; this is why I’m thinking silver for
them (despite the promised unleashing of a quad twist in Greensboro ).
Reigning junior champs Aaron/Settlage had a pretty good start to their senior
career (5th and 4th in the GP), so a bronze for them
wouldn’t surprise me at all.
As for the “who’ll be better?” wonderings about Leng/Shnapir
and Castelli/Tran... this is a tough call. What we saw of the former (on the GP
circuit) was the pairs equivalent of a moderately underbaked cake, but it’s
more than we saw of the latter. (For the record I watched C/T’s free skate at
Eastern Sectionals -- they did mostly doubles, and had trouble on the few
occasions they went to triples.) I’m picking Leng/Shnapir because they’ve
already had more competitive experience, but it’s quite possible that another
team will leapfrog both these teams... I’m looking at you, Tarah Kayne and
Daniel O’Shea...
LADIES
GOLD: Gracie Gold
SILVER: Ashley Wagner
BRONZE: Polina Edmunds
PEWTER: Samantha Cesario
Dark Horse: Courtney Hicks or Mirai Nagasu
“Nowhere” Lady: Hannah
Miller
Gracie or Ashley? It’s as tough a call as we’ll have to make
at this Nationals. Gold has that never-enviable task of defending a title, plus
it’s her first event back since a foot injury kept her out of the GP Final.
Wagner has it even worse, I think, because it’s not about “simply” wanting a
title back—it’s about redemption from last year’s Nats. She’s told the press she
intends more than ever to treat this like any other competition, but try as she
might, I think her history at this event (not just last year) will make that
nearly impossible. If both women skate to their full potential, I’d say Wagner
for the win. But I’m not convinced that will happen.
As for the bronze battle? It could be a spirited fight with
a lot of contenders, but Edmunds really left her mark on this event last year.
Even if she has trouble with her SP (as she did on both GP assignments this
season), I think she’ll rally (also as she did on her GP assignments) and find
herself on the podium after all. To me, her closest likely competitor will be
Cesario... but Edmunds generally has her beat in terms of speed and jump
difficulty.
My dark horse vote goes to Hicks and Nagasu, for two
entirely different reasons. With Hicks you’ve got speed, powerhouse jumps (when
landed), and twizzles within her footwork that put many world-class ice dancers
to shame. With Nagasu you get a complete package if she fully rotates her jumps, if
she skates with heart, if she’s
well-trained, etc. etc. But the biggest thing about Nagasu this year is what
happened with her last year. Does she
come to this event with more quiet determination than ever to prove she
should’ve gone to Sochi ? If so,
will we get yet another Lights Out performance from the 2008 champion... just
to find out underrotations and edge calls did her in yet again?? Talk about a
wild card...
And my out-of-“nowhere” choice Hannah Miller was tenth in ’13,
ninth last year, and boasts a really strong season so far in this, her first
full year at the senior level (gold and silver at two Challenger Series
events). I say this is her year to make a move.
What do YOU say? (Leave a comment!)
Dance and Men’s predictions coming soon!
No comments:
Post a Comment