Tuesday, February 4, 2020

2020 U.S. Figure Skating Championships: on Team Selections & Number-Crunching


Down in Greensboro, NC a couple weekends ago, somewhere alongside coaches that are currently under investigation, sponsors with a purpose that seemed more outrageously inappropriate than ever before… and a USFS executive director going on record to tell Christine Brennan that figure skating didn’t have any more of a culture of sexual abuse than any other sport… (SIGH)… there was another exciting edition of the U.S. Figure Skating Championships taking place. Let’s see if any of my “remarkables” equated with yours. (Having gone only 5-for-16 on my medal predictions, I suspect you may have seen things differently… with better results!)
Since there’s a lot of discussion—especially for a non-Olympic year—regarding the Selection Committee choices for the remainder of the season, I’m going to incorporate some of those choices into my Nats comments…

MEN
Worlds Team: Nathan Chen, Jason Brown, Vincent Zhou
4CC Team: Jason Brown, Tomoki Hiwatashi, Camden Pulkinen
Nationals Top 10:
1) Chen
2) Brown
3) Hiwatashi
4) Zhou
5) Andrew Torgashev (picked for Jr. Worlds)
6) Alexei Krasnozhon
7)Pulkinen
8)Dinh Tran
9)Sean Rabbitt
10)Yaroslav Paniot
+ What about… Choosing Zhou over Hiwatashi for Worlds? I didn’t hear much about this in terms of Twitter Outrage, which may have been because it’s tough to deny a reigning World Bronze Medalist the third spot on a team for which he helped create three spots... On second thought, that argument won’t work so well when we get to the choices for Pairs. Let’s leave it at Zhou’s efforts in his last 3 major appearances heading into 2020 Nats: 2nd at 2019 Nats, 3rd at 2019 4CCs, and 3rd at 2019 Worlds. (The fact that he was able to compete as well as he did, with only about four weeks of training, probably didn’t hurt.) Meanwhile, Hiwatashi-- who did well at 2019 Nats (4th) and won Junior Worlds-- finished 5th and 10th at his first-ever Senior Grand Prix assignments.
+ What about Choosing Pulkinen over Krasnozhon for 4CC? I didn’t hear ANY debate about this one, maybe because it’s 4CC and people aren’t as concerned about it. Considering that these two finished 6th and 7th, it might be surprising that either one was chosen. But with Chen focusing on retaining his World title, Zhou just getting back into the competitive swing of things, and Torgashev heading to Jr. Worlds, USFS opted for Pulkinen (4th and 8th in the GP)over Krasnozhon (10th and 9th).
+ Elsewhere in the event… while I was pretty bummed to see veteran competitor Emmanuel Savary withdraw at the last minute (he cited chronic ankle injuries on his Instagram account), first-time senior Dinh Tran (2nd in Juniors last year)was a pleasant surprise! Hopefully his 8th place finish will allow him to snag a GP assignment next season.

WOMEN
Worlds Team: Mariah Bell, Bradie Tennell
4CC Team: Tennell, Karen Chen, Amber Glenn
Nationals Top 10:
Alysa Liu (Chosen for Jr. Worlds)
Bell
Tennell
Chen
Glenn
Starr Andrews (chosen for Jr. Worlds)
Sierra Venetta
Courtney Hicks
Gabriella Izzo
Rene Ikenishi
Since the women were much more a by-the-numbers selection-- including the fact that Liu remains too young to compete at any Worlds besides the Junior variety-- I’ll bring up some slightly different issues:
+ Triple axels vs. artistry… well, here we are again with the 2nd-shoulds-been-1st debate. But the comparison of 23 year-old Bell’s best-ever Nationals free skate to 14 year-old Liu’s performance, fueled this year with triple axels and a quad lutz attempt (it was deemed underrotated), also raises the question of age eligibility. Not so much the “why can’t 14 year-olds compete at Worlds?” question, but the one that seems to precede that… “Why are age-ineligible skaters competing at the senior level?”
I wish I had a clue. All I can wonder is if the Alysa Liu situation-- one that has come up twice so far, and may rear its head a third time next year-- might be enough to prompt a rule change. On the other hand (I wonder), what’s a phenom like Liu supposed to do, smash the competition repeatedly on the junior level?
(Um, sure, why not?)
+ In studying the protocols of both Tennell and Bell, here’s what I found:
Bell: Free Skate jumps totaled 52.51, spins 13.09, step sequence 5.52, choreo sequence 5.5, and PCS (components score) of 75.37, which included a 9.71 for music interpretation.
Tennell: Free Skate jumps totaled 43.81 (including a fall on a triple loop), spins 13.31, step sequence 5.40, choreo sequence 5.0, and PCS(components) of 71.28, including an 8.75 for transitions.
SP Jumps:
Combo jump: Tennell 12.38  Bell 11.32
Triple jump: Bell 8.51   Tennell 7.72  
Double axel: Bell 4.43, Tennell 4.34     
Jumps Total: Tennell 24.44  Bell 24.26
Also noteworthy in the SP was that Bell lost a couple of points for the "freak fall" mistake in her step sequence... and Tennell garnered a higher PCS mark in the SP than Bell.  
In short, they were VERY well matched at Nationals.
Last year at Worlds, Bradie finished around 5 points ahead of Mariah to come in 7th place (while Mariah was 9th). They would need to do a little better placement-wise-- say, 6th/7th or 5th/8th- to earn a third ladies spot back for the U.S. at Worlds. The U.S. last had the 3rd spot in 2018.

PAIRS
Worlds Team: Knierim/Knierim, Cain-Gribble/LeDuc
4CC Team: Knierim/Knierim, Calalang/Johnson, Kayne/O’Shea
Top 6:
Knierim/Knierim
Calalang/Johnson
Kayne/O’Shea
Cain-Gribble/LeDuc
Denney/Frasier
Lu/Mitrofanov
+ The most debated Worlds Team choice starts with the one-two finish of the veteran Knierims (partnered since 2012) and the still rising Calalang/Johnson (partnered since 2018). The silver medal earned by Cal/John was a significant jump from the 5th place they earned in their first turn together at Nats, but many on Twitter- including Tai Babilonia (of the 1979 World Champion pairs team Tai Babilonia/Randy Gardner, a.k.a. The only U.S. team in the past 50 years to win Worlds gold), were dismayed that they didn’t finish up at the top of the podium, and/or get chosen for the World team.

Here’s the score breakout for both teams:
Short programs 
K/K elements: 43.33 PCS: 33.73  
C/J elements 37.68 (he fell on downgraded triple Sal)... PCS: 29.88
Free skate SBS jumps: K/K 2.10 (-2.1 GOE on 3Toes) + 1.49 (2sal)= 3.59 total……….. C/J 6.28 + 4.79= 11.07
Free skate Throw jumps: K/K 7.14 (3Lo) + 7.19 (3Lz)= 14.33……………… C/J 5.91 (3Sal) + 6.59 (3Lz)= 12.5 
Free Skate triple twists: K/K 8.55……… C/J 8.39
Free Skate Lifts:K/K 9.15 + 7.14 (group 3 lift) + 9.5= 25.79………… C/J 7.36 (group 3 lift) + 10 + 10.4= 27.76
Free Skate spin & D.Spiral: K/K 6.36 + 6.65= 13.01…………….5.98 + 5.71= 11.69
Free Skate Choreo seq: K/K 4.93  C/J 5.0
Free Skate components: K/K 69.89 C/J 69.60

So part of the answer to the question lies in the numbers-- in this case, the 8+ point lead the Knierims had over Cal/John in the SP was enough to keep them ahead, even though the latter won the free skate by almost 7 points. 
But why did the USFS Selection Committee name 4th place finishers Cain-Gribble/LeDuc to the World Team (with the Knierims) rather than Calalang/Johnson? I suppose it had to do with the “criteria” used in such decisions… CGLD were able to participate in 2019 4CC (finshing 4th) as well as last year’s Worlds (finishing 9th, thereby earning the 2nd spot for Worlds). The two teams fared pretty similarly on the GP circuit this past fall (placements ranging from 4th to 6th), but CGLD can also claim two victories in smaller events (U.S. Classic and Golden Spin) while C/J can only claim one (Warsaw Cup). 
So the choices made, using the criteria they currently use, seem to make sense. But given how lights-out Calalang/Johnson performed just a couple weeks ago, I can’t help but see a small shadow of the Ross Miner/2018 Nationals situation. Obviously, there was no Olympic spot at stake this time, but it still robs an up-and-coming team of valuable Worlds experience. 
Instead, Cal/John will try and capitalize on their Nationals success at Four Continents (4CC), which happens this week. I won’t be getting any predictions out, but might post a recap next week.
(Oh, and since this post is so long already... I'll just add that the ice dance selections for both 4CC and Worlds are the same: Chock/Bates, Hubbell/Donohue, and Hawayek/Baker. Yes, I was wrong about Hawayek/Baker losing their podium spot; yes, I was very pleased with my error in judgment.)

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