Tuesday, March 12, 2013

London Calling: 2013 Worlds Predictions: Dance and Ladies

OK, here’s what I’ve got for DANCE and LADIES—again, agonizing over who goes where...

Dance predictions:

GOLD: Virtue/Moir (CAN)
SILVER: Davis/White (USA)
BRONZE: Bobrova/Soloviev (RUS)

4th Pechalat/Bourzat (FRA)
5th Weaver/Poje (CAN)
6th Cappellini/Lanotte (ITA)
7th Ilinykh/Katsalapov (RUS)
8th Shibutani/Shibutani (USA)
9th Riazanova/Tkachenko (RUS)
10th Chock/Bates (USA)

BECAUSE... I’m afraid I don’t see V/M losing to D/W in Tessa’s hometown. And if the judges are willing to cut them as much slack for a “2-part” free dance as they did at 4CC (a.k.a. Carmenus Interruptus ), I have a hard time believing they won’t somehow be rewarded for a continuous, normal FD effort. Because in what seems like a three-way race for bronze (between Bobrova/Soloviev, Pechalat/Bourzat, and Weaver/Poje), only Bob/Solo have been injury-free in recent memory... and, perhaps, better prepared. Because the Ghost of an FD from I/K seems much better received from judges than from the likes of me. Because I think Marina Zoueva is capable of “fixing” the Shib Sibs programs in a manner that at least returns them ahead of Chock/Bates (if not yet restoring them to Top Five splendor).

Ladies predictions:

GOLD: Mao Asada (JPN)
BRONZE: Carolina Kostner (ITA)

4th Akiko Suzuki (JPN)
5th Ashley Wagner (USA)
6th Liza Tutkamysheva (RUS)
7th Kanako Murakami (JPN)
8th Gracie Gold (USA)
9th Kaitlyn Osmond (CAN)
10th Alena Leonova (RUS)

BECAUSE... Kim’s return to competition this year means everyone behind her takes one placement step back just to break even... so this explains my philosophy behind Suzuki in 4th and Wagner in 5th. (Because, much as I’d love to see them both higher, I don’t have quite the same confidence in their jumps and/or technical difficulty as the top three on my list.) Because I’m choosing a more seasoned-this-season Asada to a relatively green Kim (though I think she’ll come back better than most in that position). Because everyone I have in 6th through 9th has technical power, but still needs a lot of refining... save for Murakami, who just hasn’t been as consistent as her teammates. Because even if Gold nails her 3/3 combos, it’s no guarantee she’ll nail the rest of the program (her triple loop and second triple lutz have been particularly vulnerable this season). And because I had to put Leonova over teammate Adelina Sotnikova, if only because her Aguilara’d free skate makes my ears think about bleeding.

That’s it!!! Let the championships BEGIN!!

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

My picks for podium is Kim, Caro, Akiko, and Mao for 4th. Kim sounds as strong as ever, Caro's programs have such good reputations, Akiko sounds very strong in practices. Mao is a big question mark. Based on her competitive records and her 3A and 3-3 attempts at 4cc, everything looks good for her. But her consistencies are really questionable.
Her success rates:
3A 1/2 (one w/ huge GOE, but another with UR and 2-foot)
3Lz 2/4 (w/ "e"; prone to pop)
3F-Sth 7/12 (prone to URs)
3Lo 10/12 (delayed jump, great quality!!! high GOEs)
2A-3T 1/4 (prone to UR)
3S 1/4 (prone to pop)

To incorporate 3A and 3F-3Lo, she kicked out her best jumps: 2A and 3Lo combo! Now her only consistent jump remaining in the program is 3Lo. Her 8 triple program is great on paper, but is super risky with a skater with the consistency issue.
That's said, she's looking very motivated so that she won't let go of the program even if she pops her 3A!