DANCE
GOLD: Madison
Chock/Evan Bates
SILVER: Maia
Shibutani/Alex Shibutani
BRONZE: Madison
Hubbell/Zachary Donohue
PEWTER: Kaitlin
Hawayek/Jean-Luc Baker
Dark Horse: Anastasia Cannuscio/Colin McManus
Like my Ladies predictions from yesterday, this list is
pretty similar to last year’s. But for what it’s worth (and since I’m not a
judge, “it” is not worth much at all I’m afraid), I would like to see the Shib
Sibs win this year. I know I’m not alone in the feeling that their “Fix You”
free dance has elevated their skating this season. And it’s not that the
Chock/Bates classically-rooted FD is a problem,
or a step backward, or anything like that—at least not for me, as still
enjoy it (and them) very much.
But “Fix You” is special. The Shibs, like so many sibling
couples ahead of them, have struggled at times to conceptualize their
contributions to the part of this sport that is uniquely driven by romantic imagery.
Here, in “Fix You”, they have created a piece that is so much more than
beautiful and (for lack of a better word) appropriate. It is contemporary, it
is evocative—and maybe most important of all, it is a wonderfully telling
reflection of how much those two have grown, both individually and as a team.
Unfortunately, “it” still landed them behind C/B at the recent
Grand Prix Final—even with the latter team having a notable error on at least
one element (the twizzles). And while I guess it could be argued that the Shibs
couldn’t possibly have done their best at the GPF—Alex suffering terribly from
a stomach ailment and all—I’m one of those who thought it was possibly the best
and most moving performance they’ve ever given in competition (and not knowing
something was actually wrong with Alex until post-performance).
So the reasoning goes like this: If they couldn’t finish
ahead of C/B there... they won’t do
it here either. (Sigh. I really, really want to be wrong though—can you tell?)
As for the bronze/pewter battle: after 2015 Nats it looked
like Hawayek/Baker had a crazy head of steam propelling them towards overtaking
Hubbell/Donohue this year. But as of right now, it feels like all that steam
has dissipated. From Baker’s concussion in September, to Hawayek’s bout with
food poisoning that took the team out of
Cup of China, to a free dance (taking on the Hawking story of The Theory of Everything) that seems a
little difficult to connect with—yeah, I find myself thinking Advantage HUBBELL/DONOHUE. And that’s
not by default either—I think they have risen to the challenge of staying on
the World team this year. (I still like their Hallelujah SD much more than their Adagio for Tron FD, though.)
The one change I made from last year’s predictions is having
Cannuscio/ McManus (or as one of my Twitter followers calls them endearingly,
Can Man) as the Dark Horse. For better or worse, both Can Man and Haw/Bake have
taken on story pieces for their free dances—Beethoven’s saga is the Can Man
version—and it feels like the time might be right for them to make a move.
As for the rest of the field (14 teams in all), I watched
their qualifying Sectionals performances and... sorry to say... very few stood
out for me in a positive way. (As always, I note that I don’t “know” dance like
I know singles skating... I just know what looks/feels good to me.) The only exceptions—aka teams you might want
to take note of—are:
+ Karina Manta/Joseph Johnson, who were 10th
at Junior Nats last year (I wrote in my notes pretty good twizzles; seem much better than the rest)
+ Alexandra Aldridge/Matthew Blackmer and Danielle
Thomas/Daniel Eaton. The names sound familiar because A) Aldridge and Eaton
competed together through 2015 Nats, and B) Blackmer previously competed as a
pairs skater, winning Junior Nats in 2013 with Britney Simpson. (FYI, Thomas/Eaton
are skating 3rd in the SD while Aldridge/Blackmer are skating 9th.)
**
Here's what I'm predicting for the MEN:
GOLD: Nathan Chen
SILVER: Max Aaron
BRONZE: Adam Rippon
PEWTER: Vincent Zhou
Dark Horse: Grant Hochstein or Ross Miner
“Nowhere” Man: Zhou
“Not Here” Men (that is, the laundry list of guys who have
scratched from this event):
Jason Brown, Richard Dornbush, Joshua Farris, Jordan
Moeller
Admittedly, I haven’t peeked around to see what others are
predicting so I’ve no idea of choosing Chen is a surprise, or the
surprise-that-everyone-saw-coming. But here’s how I’m looking at this:
+
Chen has good quads. Yes, he has artistry (still
developing, of course—he’s only 16!—but it’s coming). But more importantly for
this level of competition: Chen has good, point-mongering QUADS. And he lands
them most of the time.
+
Aaron has quads too, and so does Rippon. But so
far this year, the consistency hasn’t been there for either of them (and that
goes moreso for some of their triples than the quads).
+
Especially with all the WDs at the top, the
pressure is both Rippon and Aaron like it probably hasn’t been since... well,
since a team was being chosen for Sochi
(which didn’t include either of them). While I don’t think they will have dates
with disaster—I wouldn’t predict them for medals if I did—I’m afraid the nerves
will tag them both just enough to keep the top spot out of reach. Chen,
meanwhile, has nothing to lose. Did I mention he’s 16??
+
Speaking of teenagers... Vincent Zhou. He won
Novice Men on his first attempt. He won Junior Men on his first attempt. He
didn’t compete last year due to injury... but he’s back. With a quad salchow
(one of the few to successfully land one in Sectionals, if not THE only one).
And a full arsenal of triples. And some decent musicality (his FS is to The Godfather, or as I’ll probably quip
on Twitter, The Godfather’s Unexpected
Nephew). And yes, I’m predicting this 15 (FIFTEEN!!) year-old will finish
his senior-level debut in a most-exciting 4th place.
+
Finally, we’ve got Grant (Hochstein) and Ross
(Miner). One turned in surprisingly strong 4th place finishes at
both his GP events this season (after being away from the entire circuit for
several years); the other earned a surprise of his own when he claimed bronze
at Rostelecom Cup a couple months ago. Can either of them convert those
successes into a podium-worthy Nationals? Yep, I think either one of them could
do it—especially with a landed quad (which both have done) and IF the other
guys I’ve mentioned execute seriously flawed programs. (And after watching the
ladies Thursday night, we certainly know what that’s like!) But those are pretty
specific circumstances, which is why I give both Hochstein and Miner the Dark
Horse slot.
OTHERS RETURNING VIA SECTIONALS: Scott Dyer, Alexander
Johnson (NOTE: he skates first in
the SD tonight) Jimmy Ma, Curran Oi**, Sebastien Payannet, Robert Przepioski, Sean
Rabbitt
ROOKIES to the senior ranks this year are Ben Jalovick, Daniel
Kulenkamp, Emmanuel Savary, Eric Stinehart, and the previously mentioned Zhou.
VETERANS: 26 year-old Rippon’s first senior-level Nationals
was 2009.
**But of special note is 25 year-old Curran Oi, who you
might recall was a standout 6th-place finisher that same year (FUN
FACT—he outskated Rippon by less than half a point!). He then dropped out of
competition to attend M.I.T. full-time. But he’s back, and while his FS at
Sectionals wasn’t a complete return to that 2009 form, it was enough to get him
back to Nationals for the first time in seven years! No small accomplishment.
Whether you’re following everything on Ice Network, or just
the marquee groups/events on NBC this weekend, chances are good that I’ll be on
Twitter at the same time... look for me @KLBSt8ofSk8, using #USChamps16 on all
Nats-related Tweets!
