The Grand Prix in Review: What Have We Learned?

First, to review who just medaled at the GP Final, here’s your cheat sheet...

 

MEN:

 

GOLD: Hanyu, JPN

SILVER: Chan, CAN

BRONZE: Oda, JPN

 

Hanyu’s siiiiick score in the SP (missed 100 by thatmuch!!) helped him defeat Chan, who skated right after that SP and “only” got 87 with a fall out on the triple axel and a hot mess of a double (not triple) lutz. Oda was a best-of-the-rest case in an event where the quads were off for damn near everyone.

 

LADIES:

 

GOLD: Asada, JPN

SILVER: Lipnitskaia, RUS

BRONZE: Wagner, USA

 

A lot of us were scratching our heads at Adelina Sotnikova’s 2^nd place SP finish—particularly when both Wagner and Gumbyskaia skated clean, and had more difficult 3/3 combos—but in the end, Gumby no-boned her way to silver and once again gave notice to those on Sochi watch (probably everyone reading this, right?). Wagner, for her part, “left some points on the table” as she herself said (with a fall on her lutz and a 2-footed triple loop), and it sounds like she’s planning on doing some FS re-tooling with the spins and footwork during this brief pause before U.S. Nationals.

 

PAIRS:

 

GOLD: Sav/Szol, GER

SILVER: Volo/Trank, RUS

BRONZE: Pang/Tong, CHN

 

Aha, the upset! It came just in time to make this race more interesting by Olympic time... even though I have a hard time seeing this scenario repeat itself this season. And just as I was casting doubt on Pang/Tong because of Tong’s SBS jump inconsistencies, he gets it together and Moore-Towers/Moscovitch (my bronze medal prediction) are the ones with the problems.

 

DANCE:

 

GOLD: Davis/White, USA

SILVER: Virtue/Moir, CAN

BRONZE: Pechalat/Bourzat, FRA

 

D/W got it in their first twizzle-to-twizzle with V/M of the season, but it wasn’t by as much as one might expect from a “dominating” team, so that’ll probably turn out to be a good thing for all involved. And it looked like Bob/Solo was going to make the podium a complete rerun of Worlds until... whoopsie... the ugly trip-up. You know who else is familiar with ugly trip-ups that cost them a medal? Pechalat/Bourzat. Except this time they were the ones standing by, catching the bronze in their bare hands as Bob/Solo hit the ice. (I’d say what goes around comes around except that doesn’t work in this case; the Shib Sibs were the ones that benefited from P/B’s mistake at 2011 Worlds.)

Anyhoo...

 

WHAT HAVE WE LEARNED THIS GP SEASON?

 

The battle for Olympic bronze is sooooo on—especially in ice dance. It appears to be advantage Bobrova/Soloviev, despite the GPF finish, but I don’t think I’ve ever seen a time when so many teams had a legitimate shot at it. (Question for Cappillini/Lanotte fans: 4^th at Worlds, but solidly in 6^th at this GPF... what do you suggest for them?)

 

There’s a great future for skating—at least when it comes to the athletes themselves. All things being equal, we have good reason this season to keep our eyes peeled for the progression of Jason Brown (USA), Samantha Cesario (USA), Elena Radionova (RUS), Han Yan (CHN), and Satoko Miyahara (JPN), to name a few. I’d put Peng/Zhang (CHN) on this list too, but at age 30-something will Zhang really continue beyond this Olympics? Maybe “the future” is Peng with a new, more age-appropriate partner...

 

Is the future NOW? Lipnitskaia, aka The Best in Boneless Skating, is the most consistently good singles skater Russia has right now (male or female). I really think she is well-poised to be a spoiler in the Yuna vs. Mao quest for Olympic gold... IF she is able to withstand what’s sure to be enormous home-country pressure, that is. And another Russian on the rise, GP Finalist Maxim Kovtun, looked very much to be a threat to Plushy’s latest Olympic journey until the wheels started coming off in his past few performances. If the aforementioned pressure hasn’t already gotten to him, and he can regroup in time for next week’s Russian Championships (to be held right there in Sochi, no less!), Kovtun could make the Olympic selection committee regret the jobs with which they’ve been entrusted.

 

Who to worry about (based on GP performances): Fernandez. Amodio. Brezina. Kostner. Reynolds (because boot issues kept him from competing at all). Denis Ten (because multiple illnesses/ailments allowed him to compete only once, and he didn’t make the podium). Maybe Duhamel/Radford too? Yes, they made the GPF, but for World Bronze Medalists I don’t think they look as solid as they should at this point in the season.

 

And don’t write off the following skaters just yet: Pang/Tong. Rippon. Takahashi. Abbott. Suzuki. Oda! Nagasu! The list could probably go longer... who would you add? To this or any of these lists?

 

As the holidays approach and then pass, so are the national championships for many countries of note. Some of those dates are listed below; keep your eyes and ears open for streaming links!!

 

Japanese Nats: Dec 20-23

Russian Nats: Dec 24-27

U.S. Nats: Jan 5-12

Canadian Nats: Jan 9-15

Want to Win a Copy of SKATING ON AIR Before 2013 Ends? Keep Reading!

(OK, this isn't a GPF wrapup/analysis either. It's coming. Promise. But first...)

I hope you're ready for another contest, because it's time for my annual book giveaway for the holidays! Whether you want a copy of Skating on Air: The Broadcast History of an Olympic Marquee Sport for a friend/family member, or still need one for yourself... this is the drawing you want to enter!

Here's how this works: 

1) I'm giving away some copies from my own paperback stash-- in other words, no Ebooks. Sorry.

2) How many I give away depends on how many entries come in.

3) If you've previously won a copy from my giveaway or someone else's, please refrain from entering this time.

4) If you win, I'll make every effort to ship it to you before Christmas (No promises on when it arrives though). And, of course, I'll sign it for you-- or for someone else if it's a gift!

5) To enter, please shoot me an email at KLawrence997-at-gmail-dot-com. Put Skating on Air 2013 Giveaway in the subject head. I'll send you back a confirmation email when I see it.

6) I plan to do the drawing NEXT WEDNESDAY EVENING (12/18).

Any questions? Please leave 'em in the Comments.

Good luck! 

Your Chance to Win a Personalized Skate Stocking Starts Here...

Before I get to a Grand Prix Final summary/commentary... I have a quiz for you. Well, some of you. Specifically, anyone who has read my book Skating on Air: The Broadcast History of an Olympic Marquee Sport and is interested in winning a personalized Christmas stocking courtesy of SkateStocking.com!

I received a plush white figure skate from SkateStocking.com a few years back... it's a lovely gift for any skating fan. To get your own (or a black hockey skate), please answer (in the comments) the following question I pulled from the pages of SOA:

What was the name of the TV program on which Carol Heiss was interviewed in 1957... one where she recalls the cameras started setting up in her house "in the morning", and she "got to wear a new silky blue dress for the program"?

Good luck! First correct answer in the comments of this post wins!!

ISU Senior Grand Prix Predictions (a.k.a. Possibly the Shortest Post Ever)

The GPF is starting in a matter of hours! So let’s get right to it...

Need the Senior GP schedule? Here it is.

(And, for good measure, here’s the Junior GP schedule too... ) 

As for senior GP predictions, mine for gold-silver-bronze go like this:

Ladies: Asada, Lipnitskaia, Wagner

Men’s: Chan, Hanyu, Oda

Pairs: Volo/Trank, Sav/Szol, M-T/Moscovitch

Dance: Davis/White, Virtue/Moir, Pechalat/Bourzat

Let’s pore over all the videos and meet back here early next week!

From Nebelhorn to Ice Challenge... The Best of the 2013 "B"'s

While we wait for the Grand Prix (and Junior GP) Final to get underway later this week, I’ve rounded up all the winners of the “B” events thus far this fall. Some I’ve discussed in previous posts; some events, such as Golden Spin of Zagreb (featuring Kim Yu-Na) haven’t happened yet. But in the interest of checking out all that has been happening around the world (OK, Europe) in the shadow of GP events, here you go.

Although I’m not including point totals with these gold-silver-bronze listings, I’ve boldfaced every finish that had a point total that would have put the skater (in theory, anyway) into the top 10 of their discipline at 2013 Worlds. There’s not a lot of them—only 12 finishes out of the 60 listed here—but it helps to separate the contenders from the rest of the pack. Please note that Tomas Verner is among them. Twice!

By the way, my predictions for the GPF itself will be up... um... sometime before the first senior event starts. Tick-tock, I know...

NEBELHORN TROPHY

MEN: Oda (JPN), Brown (USA), J.Ten (CAN)

LADIES: Radionova (RUS), Ando (JPN), Cain (USA)

PAIRS: Volosozhar/Trankov (RUS), Wende/Wende (GER), Vartmann/Van Cleave (GER)

DANCE:  Hubbell/Donohue (USA), Monko/Khaliavin (RUS), Paul/Islam (CAN)

NEPALA MEMORIAL

MEN: Verner (CZE), Mura (JPN), Liebers (GER)

LADIES: Imai (JPN), Gosviiani (RUS), Gao (USA)

PAIRS: Donlan/Speroff (USA), Martyusheva/Rogonov (RUS), Scimeca/Knierim (USA)

DANCE: Coomes/Buckland (GBR), Guignard/Fabbri (ITA), Kolbe/Caruso (GER)

FINLANDIA TROPHY

MEN: Hanyu (JPN), Voronov (RUS), Gachinski (RUS)

LADIES: Lipnitskaia (RUS), Suzuki (JPN), Tuktamysheva (RUS)

DANCE: Virtue/Moir (CAN), Chock/Bates (USA), Plutowska/Gerber (POL)

INTERNATIONAL CUP OF NICE

MEN: Verner (CZE), Menshov (RUS), Bush (RUS)

LADIES: Artemyeva (RUS), Baga (USA), Weinzierl (GER)

PAIRS: Prolss/Blommaert (GER), Calalang/Sidhu (USA), Wende/Wende (GER)

DANCE: Papadakis/Cizeron (FRA), Alessandrini/Vaturi (ITA), Monko/Khaliavin (RUS)

ICE CHALLENGE

MEN: D. Ten (KAZ), Pfeifer (AUS), Gorskov (RUS)

LADIES: Hicks (USA), Ando (JPN), Rajicova (SLO)

PAIRS: Donlan/Speroff (USA), Wende/Wende (GER), Kayne/O’Shea (USA)

DANCE: Cannuscio/McManus (USA), Beaudry/Sorensen (DEN) , Kolbe/Caruso (GER)

2013 Rostelecom Roundup as the GP Finalists are Determined

Here's a roundup of Rostelecom Cup of Russia 2013; scroll down further to see a list of the Grand Prix Finalists... 

LADIES:

Gold- Julia Lipnitskaia, RUS

Silver- Carolina Kostner, ITA

Bronze- Mirai Nagasu, USA

I was way off on my “dark horse” pick for this one... I said to keep an eye on Kanako Murakami, but while she rebounded very nicely in the free skate, her last-place SP was a sad sight to see (and it’s hard seeing such a normally cheerful young woman so disappointed in herself). Nagasu did what teammate Agnes Zawadzki did not: skate two strong programs, easily breaking the virtual tie between them (after the SP) to grab bronze while Zawadzki tumbled to 6^th. Gumbyskaia got the overall victory here, but based on her exit interviews seems none too happy with her performance (a sizeable points cushion after the SP allowed her to edge out Kostner by the slimmest of margins). But no worries, O Bendable One; even the best have their “off” days. (I have it in quotes because the performance in question was still quite good.)

With this silver medal, Kostner will miss the GP Final for only the third time since 2007. By the way, what’s the consensus regarding her new Scheherazade ensemble? I (kiddingly) mentioned on Twitter that with all the beading and crystals weighing down the front side of the bodice, I worry now that she’s going to faceplant on a spiral. I DO like this dress better than the other one, but not by much. How about you?

MEN:

Gold- Tatsuki Machida, JPN

Silver- Maxim Kovtun, RUS

Bronze- Javier Fernandez, ESP

I got the order all wrong, but was right about there being no other guys for the podium but these three. (Though Konstantin Menshov got much closer than I’d ever have guessed.) Machida now heads into the GP Final as the only man besides Patrick Chan with two gold medals—who’d have called THAT at the season’s start? But there wasn’t much contest here after Kovtun delivered a less-than-impressive free skate. In fact about the only performance I can think of in the FS that was MORE unimpressive was that of Fernandez—in fact, Kovtun and Fernandez were 4^th and 5^th in the FS behind 3^rd place Menshov and 2^nd place Richard Dornbush (who was still 20 points behind Machida and, thanks to a lackluster SP, brought home another 5^th place finish).

PAIRS:

Gold- Savchenko/Szolkowy, GER

Silver- Bazarova/Larionov, RUS

Bronze- Moore-Towers/Moscovitch, CAN

Did Baza/Lario get THAT much better in a week (between TEB and CoR)? Well, their SBS elements were more successful—still didn’t look great, but at least the rotating was kept to a max while falls were minimized. But they also got some help from M-T/M, who seemed oddly off their game here... not just with the jumps, but did you see that one exit from a lift where M-T ended up falling forward? Oof. As for Sav/Szol, it was gold medal business as usual, save for the throw triple axel splat in the SP. Kudos to them for replacing it with their throw triple salchow in the waning moments of their Nutcracker Free Skate; they certainly didn’t need the points to win this event. But some said Savchenko was crying in the apt-named K’n’C after the botched attempt, as if in pain. While I understand the reasoning behind wanting to keep this high-risk/high-reward element in their arsenal, I wish there was some other way they could be compatible for Olympic gold.

DANCE:

Gold- Bobrova/Soloviev, RUS

Silver- Weaver/Poje, CAN

Bronze- Chock/Bates, USA

Welcome to the Controversy of the Weekend. Wea/Po actually won the free dance here, but it was likely a hollow victory knowing the insurmountable advantage B/S had after the SD. It’s not that B/S were overscored there; it’s that Wea/Po appear to be seriously underscored, considering the nine point difference from their SkCan performance. Looking at the protocols from both events, it’s about the levels—a 2 for their curve lift at CoR (compared to a 4 at SkCan), and two patterns (I’m guessing that’s what they were?) that went from 4’s for both to a 2 and a 1, respectively. Pretty blatant stuff happening there. Have there been such disparities in any other couple’s TES dance scores this season?

As for Chock/Bates, their 2^nd bronze of the GP season is surely a nice boost as they work toward the medal they want the most (the one that’ll qualify them for Sochi). Their 153.37 overall score here is enough of an improvement on their NHK score to put them in a much tighter battle with Hubbell/Donohue, but the Shib Sibs remain untouched by other U.S. teams in terms of the silver spot (behind Davis/White, of course).

So here’s the lineup for each discipline at the GP Final. I’ve included the 1^st and 2^nd alternates in bold, as they often get called up to replace someone in an Olympic season:

LADIES: Asada, Lipnitskaia, Wagner, Pogorilaya, Sotnikova, Radionova, Suzuki, Kostner

MEN: Chan, Machida, Hanyu, Kovtun, Takahashi, Yan, Oda, Rippon

PAIRS: Volosozhar/Trankov, Savchenko/Szolkowy, Pang/Tong, M-T/Moscovitch, Duhamel/Radford, Peng/Zhang, Sui/Han, Barton/Hotarek

DANCE: Davis/White, Virtue/Moir, Bobrova/Soloviev, Pechalat/Bourzat, Weaver/Poje, Cappellini/Lanotte, Ilinykh/Katsalapov, Shibutanis

2013 Rostelecom Cup of Russia Preview & Predictions

Rostelecom Cup of Russia predictions are here! Please note that I’ve added some chatter about making it to the GP Final in lieu of my regular notes...

And for the CoR timetable, click here.

LADIES:

Gold- Julia Lipnitskaia, RUS

Silver- Carolina Kostner, ITA

Bronze- Elizaveta Tuktamysheva, RUS

Dark Horse: Kanako Murakami, JPN

Who’s at the Final for sure: Asada, Wagner, Pogorilaya, and Sotnikova

Who’s on the bubble: Radionova, Suzuki

To get to the Final: Lipnitskaia gets there for SURE if she’s anywhere on the podium here. Kostner, Tuktamysheva and Murakami can only get there for SURE if they win. (Getting silver would put each of them at 24 points for the season along with Elena Radionova and Akiko Suzuki, so tiebreakers would come into play.)

MEN:

Gold- Maxim Kovtun, RUS

Silver- Javier Fernandez, ESP

Bronze- Tatsuki Machida, JPN

Dark Horse: Honestly, with so many withdrawals from this event (Plushenko, Joubert, Reynolds)... I can’t find one.

Who’s at the Final for sure: Chan, Hanyu

Who’s on the bubble: Takahashi, Yan, Oda, Rippon

To get to the Final: Kovtun gets there if he gets anywhere on the podium... Machida gets there if he finishes 4^th or higher... if Fernandez (or Richard Dornbush or Joshua Farris for that matter) WINS, it would put him on the 22-point bubble with Rippon, but numerous other things would have to fall into place for him to get there. In other words, it’s still mathematically possible for these three but not very likely.

PAIRS:

Gold- Savchenko/Szolkowy, GER

Silver- Moore-Towers/Moscovitch, CAN

Bronze- Bazarova/Larionov, RUS

Dark Horse: Scimeca/Knierim, USA

Who’s at the Final for sure: Volosozhar/Trankov, Pang/Tong

Who’s on the bubble: Duhamel/Radford, Peng/Zhang, Sui/Han, Berton/Hotarek

To get to the Final: Savchenko/Szolkowy need to finish 4^th or higher... Moore-Towers/Moscovitch need to finish on the podium... Bazarova/Larionov have a chance if they finish on the podium, but it’s another case of other-things-needing-to-happen-as-well.

DANCE:

Gold- Bobrova/Soloviev, RUS

Silver- Weaver/Poje, CAN

Bronze- Riazanova/Tkachenko, RUS

Dark Horses: Chock/Bates, USA or Gilles/Poirier, CAN

Who’s at the Final for sure: Davis/White, Virtue/Moir, Pechalat/Bourzat, Cappellini/Lanotte

Who’s on the bubble: Ilinykh/Katsalapov, Shibutani/Shibutani

To get to the Final: Both Weaver/Poje and Bobrova/Soloviev need to finish somewhere on the podium... Chock/Bates have an outside chance if they win bronze and a better shot if they finish higher than that (seems very unlikely given their competition, though).