Dance, Dance, Dance Predictions...

Remember the days when no one seemed to shift from the top spot in ice dance for at least four years?

Be it nationally (Lang/Tchernyshev, Blumberg/Seibert, Punsalan/Swallow… well, if you don’t count 1995, I mean…)

Or internationally (Torvill/Dean, B & B, Grischuk/Platov…)?

Ah, so old school. Nowadays they try to make it more competition and less coronation… or so they say. No phoning it in. No resting on laurels.

Having said all that, what will come of this year’s big dance-off? Or should I say, dance-offs??

In this corner we have B & A, Belbin/Agosto, 5-time Nationals champs looking for #6… in THAT corner we have D/W, Davis & White, reigning National champs looking to defend their title and defeat Belgosto for the first time EVER on this stage.

And… over in a separate corner… we have Navarro/Bommentre, 2-time national bronze medalists… and in THAT corner we have Samuelson/Bates, the youngest pair of the four mentioned, who happened to leapfrog N/B last year and claim national silver.

Here’s where I put my annual disclaimer: I’m no expert on ice dance. Yes, I’ve trained in dance, but it was all off-ice. The sum of what I know I can put into 3 bullet points:

+ Like jazz or classical music, I’m uneducated in this stuff… but I know what I like.
+ And I think, overall, I’ve liked previous seasons of dances better for both B/A and D/W.
+ Oh, and in interviewing a coach once, I was informed that Belbin skates with “coarse edges”. Do with that what you will.

As far as predicting this thing goes…

Gold: Davis/White
Silver: Belbin/Agosto
Bronze: Navarro/Bommentre

I’m going out on a huge limb here, but don’t hate me for it: suppose you’re a judge. You’re very fond of BOTH top teams, but when it comes time to make a choice about who’s to come out on top, you think about Vancouver.

Where the top of the dance podium is likely to be VERY crowded…

Where Belgosto could most definitely find a place. Maybe no better than silver again, but a place just the same.

But where D/W could NOT find a place… perhaps they were sent a message last year with the close shave at Worlds, and that message was Not you two… not yet.

Then you, as a judge, think If Belgosto is our best medal chance, we’d better send them a message too. That message being you’re not ready yet… you’ve got a few more weeks… clean it up. Even if it’s not necessarily true. Light a fire under them. Whatever cliché you want… but you give the National title to D/W.

And now that I’ve laid out that scenario, you know it will never unfold that way!

As for bronze, I’m not really wild about either of the contenders I mentioned… but Navarro/Bommentre will surely be retiring after this. And I prefer their choice of music (as I recall, it’s the U2/Mary J. Blige duet of “One”); we need more Bono in ice dancing anyway, don’t we? So there you go.

Again, please remember: I’m not an expert in ice dance. And heaven knows, judging in ice dancing is entirely about expertise…

LADIES PREDICTIONS TOMORROW… !!

Last Notes for Week 1, Then We Move On...

So we keep on running from here, don’t we? The lower-level events simmer along at U.S. Nationals for a few days before the elites return to action on Thursday… meanwhile up north, the entire Canadian Olympic FS Team has been decided (which I’ll try to talk about in some detail soon)… and according to my notes, Euros start Tuesday… yee-ha!

I’d better make my remaining comments short and sweet then…

About PAIRS:

+ I saw waaay too many ugly catch-foot (?) death spirals over the weekend, reflecting a grumble I’ve had with pairs ‘additional point’ elements all season. Can we all pray the ISU sees the error of its ways and eliminates this option soon? As it stands, I look forward to Dick Button having a field day with this at the Olympics. (I’ve heard he’ll be Bob Costas’ “special guest”, as he has been previously.)

+ About Inoue/Baldwin’s performance Saturday: as Scotty would say (and may have anyway), “Nicely done.” As I indicated Saturday, her landing the throw triple axel was a fitting way to go out. Were they robbed by those who preferred Evora/Ladwig? I tend to think not, though admittedly I haven’t studied either’s free skate (or their scores) since Saturday. All I can say with any certainty is that if a guy can’t even bother to TRY the SBS triple toe after 20+ years of competition… let alone land it… I just can’t muster up a whole lotta sympathy.

+ As for all the headlines shouting This Might Be It for Inoue & Baldwin, and their reported declining to be named to 4CC’s (or to be the pairs’ alternate for Worlds)…I think that’s the right call. They’ve done both those events umpteen times; why not go out on the relatively high note they struck in Spokane? I just hope the bitterness I’ve read about on Baldwin’s part is exaggerated. I know he’s had a long (and probably, at times, exasperating) relationship with U.S. Figure Skating, but that’s no way to go out the door. (Or if it can’t be helped, at least don’t go airing dirty skating costumes with the media.)

+ Man, do I wish Castile/Okolski could get back to their 2007 glory. What a lovely pair to watch. I’ll be curious to hear if they remain “eligible” after this season.

+ Pairs to watch next season: Castelli/Shnapir, Dobbs/Jacobsen, Aaron/Cohen, and Tanovich/Chau (the tiny ones).

About THE MEN:

+ If it isn’t enough to be excited about our top guys right now, how about getting excited about The Next Generation? Rippon is the most noticeable (and successful) of them this year, but I look forward to checking out the free skates of Grant Hochstein, Keegan Messing, and Jonathan Cassar. And to think Ross Miner (last year’s Junior champ) wasn’t even there!

+ Oh, and I think I’m going to follow his own lead and nickname Armin Mahbanoozadeh “Armin Hammer” (apparently that’s what he goes by on Twitter). Cuuute. By the way, don’t be fooled by his subpar free skate yesterday… sounds like he was skating in quite a bit of pain.

+ With Bradley as the top U.S. guy going to 4CC’s… apparently now seen by the U.S. (if not others) as the N.I.T. to the NCAA “March Madness”… I actually have a reason to watch, and cheer. He hasn’t always had my full support (and I’m sure he’s all broken up about it), but I hope he does splendidly.

+ One more thing, and I swear I’m not as old as I’m about to sound: Have half these guys forgotten how to get a haircut?? Adam Rippon, and Charlie White… you know I’m not talking to you guys. Never ever. You’re lovely. You may go now. The rest of you… those who seem to think the tousled, overgrown look is Da Bomb… bzzzzzz (that’s the sound of me firing up some electric scissors)

Dance predictions tomorrow!!!

Nats Free Skate-- Random Thoughts...

Just a few things to say tonight before I hit the hay…

+ JeremEEEEEEEEEE!!! Can you kindly bottle up both of your performances in Spokane and send them up over the border in a few weeks? Absolutely stunning. (BTW, didn’t he change his shirt yet again?? I wonder why he didn’t go with one of the suggestions I posted here last month…

+ Ditto for Denney/Barrett, who skated even better than I anticipated (and I picked them to win!). Though I doubt they’ll get the scores in Vancouver they deserve, even if they skate clean, I’m more excited about them than I’ve been for any U.S. pairs team in a mighty long while.

+ My kids were rather crushed that Ryan Bradley didn’t make the cut… the current clown prince of figure skating has two new fans after that pretty splendid free skate. What a shame… and with an impressive 3-for-3 on those quads, he’s proof positive that you need MORE. Of course in his case, “more” simply meant turning some doubles into triples…oy.

+ I must say that between Lysacek’s feathers in the SP and Weir’s fur in the FS, I’m liking Abbot’s costume changes more and more.

That’s it for now. Great show everyone!!

Short Program Notes from U.S. Nats: Week 1

Some notes I took while watching the SPs yesterday:

+ Castile/Okolski blew their SBS 3Salchow completely. Currently in 5th… actually not too bad for them.

+ Denney/Barrett—that death spiral’s gotta go, but otherwise—NICE! Currently in 1st.

+ Inoue/Baldwin—irony alert: their SBS jump (a 2ax, not 3T) was one of their best elements with a very nice exit. Who’d of known their SBS spin would be such a hot mess? And, sigh, another fall on the throw 3 ax. I actually hope they land it in the finals… it would be a nice way to go out. (Shhh… I didn’t say that.) Currently in 4th.

+ McLaughlin/Brubaker—over on Laura’s splendid Required Elements blog, I saw a Tweet from McLaughlin prior to the event that said “Let’s do this.” If THAT was “this”, guys, please don’t do that again. EVER. Currently in 7th.

+ Yankow/Coughlin—Really nice effort for them. They did well in the short last year but then couldn’t follow-up in the free skate, so I hope things are different for them this time. Currently in 2nd.

+ Evora/Ladwig—Not clean by any stretch, but not a disaster either… and that was good enough yesterday. Currently in 3rd.

As for the men…

+ Weir—clean jumps by and large, good job, vogue, vogue, strike a pose… (hey, I’m just typing up what I wrote.) Currently 3rd.

+ Abbott—BEAUTY!!!! Currently 1st. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him make some errors today. Sounds like neither he nor Lysacek really want to win this event so much as make the team… I think they fear peaking too soon (still). Maybe that means Weir will get his title back?

+ Bradley— too bad going for the quad combo apparently meant sacrificing his other two jumps. (Has he been hanging with Tomas Verner lately?) Oh, and, um, Ryan… your points called, and said they’d like to be taken off the table now. Currently 6th.

+ Lysacek—the FireCondor routine was essentially par for the course (ca-CAW!), and that flipout on the 3Ax was bound to happen sooner or later. Currently 2nd.

+ Mroz—not much to say here, except that, um, Brandon… Ryan Bradley’s double axel pop called, and said thanks for making him look good. Currently 10th.

+ Mahbanoozadeh—Was that clean? It WAS clean! I may have to start working on his nickname again… BahhhNOOOZ… Currently 5th.

+ Rippon—Yay… YAY!!... (gasp) Oh nooooo… please don’t cry… at least you didn’t crash into the wall, go over it, and land in the camera pit…Currently 4th.

Do the top three guys have it locked up already, with so many points between Weir and Rippon? Will we be sending two young pairs to Vancouver, or just one? Stay tuned…!

Vancouver Calling... U.S. Men's Edition

Showtimes... we've got showtimes...

UNIVERSAL SPORTS THIS WEEKEND (Not including repeats):

Sat. Jan. 16 12:30a-2:30a (Mens & Pairs Short)

NBC This Weekend:

Sat. Jan. 16 4:30-6 LIVE (Pairs Long)

Sun. Jan. 17 4:30-6 LIVE (Mens Long)

Here’s what I know: 15 guys from last year’s Seniors have returned… 5 guys were in Juniors last year (and have moved up), though 2009's Junior Champion (Ross Miner) has already withdrawn with a sprained ankle…Jeremy Abbott is the defending champion… we can send three men to the Olympics, as we did in 2006. Last time the U.S. won an Olympic men’s medal: 2002… last time the U.S. won a World men’s medal: 2009.

Bonus trivia I just discovered: Jeremy Abbott and Evan Lysacek are only one DAY apart in age… Lysacek born 6/4/85; Abbott born 6/5/85.

Here’s what I don’t know: What became of Eliot Halverson? I see that he’s not here because he finished 5th at Sectionals, but don’t know details beyond that.

Here’s how I see it:

GOLD: Evan Lysacek
SILVER: Jeremy Abbott
BRONZE: Ryan Bradley

Lysacek (now age 24) isn’t my favorite, to be blunt, if only because I don’t care for his style of skating the way I do others. But he’s the reigning world champion for a reason, and so far he seems to be handling the responsibility of that title with conviction and pleasure. Who IS my favorite, as far as those that seem most likely to go to Vancouver? That would be JeremEEE, (also age 24) who I shall continue to say with the extra EEEs even though he hasn’t been quite as “on fire” this season as he was last. Then again, he’s more obsessed with the don’t-peak-too-early adage than most (probably with good reason), so a successful defense of his title isn’t out of the question. As for Bradley (age 26), well, I’ve got a little confession to make. When I wrote this post earlier in the day I had Bradley at “dark horse” status. But then I decided my predictions were too, well, predictable. If Bradley’s set to stuff his program with quads, I’ll take that risky ride with him… as only a skating blogger can.

DARK HORSES: Johnny Weir (age 25)? Dark horse? Well…I think he’s learned from last year and will put up a decent enough fight… but as I’ve said before, I don’t think his skating has grown over the past couple of years the way Abbott’s and Lysacek’s has. Consistency has returned somewhat, and that’s a very important thing, but in looking at this Clip of the Day from his win in St. Louis in ’06… I guess I think he was better then than he is now. Can’t necessarily say that for my top three.. (By the way, Abbott didn’t even get out of Senior Sectionals in ’06!) Adam Rippon has progressed very nicely this year, but at age 20 he’s got more work to do, and more time in which to do it. Brandon Mroz (age 19), he of last year’s surprise silver medal at this event, hasn’t had a great year so far. He could still be a spoiler this year, especially if he hits his quad, but I have my doubts. Stephen Carriere (age 20) has been even less impressive than Mroz this season. I don’t rule him out for a future return to the podium, but I don’t think this will be his year. Parker Pennington (now age 25) is a veteran and a sentimental favorite to perhaps turn in his best finish ever… to date, his best was 6th place, all the way back in 2003… but I don’t see him challenging much beyond that.

So those are my thoughts… what are yours?

Vancouver Calling: Who's In? (U.S. Pairs Predictions)

U.S. Nationals prediction time is upon us again… so let’s start with the PAIRS!

Here’s what I know: Ten teams from last year have returned… one is a pair-up from two ex-teams (one-half of which is Tiffany Vise; her partner Derek Trent has now retired)… one guy is back with someone who didn’t compete here last year…McLaughlin/Brubaker are the defending champions…we can only send two teams to Olympics this year, same as in 2006. Last time the U.S. won an Olympic pairs medal: 1988… last time the U.S. won a World medal: 2002.

Here’s what I don’t know: Why there are only 16 teams competing this year when 19 came to this event last year. Please comment if you know… I’m curious.

Here’s how I see it:

GOLD: Caydee Denney & Jeremy Barrett
SILVER: Keauna McLaughlin & Rockne Brubaker
BRONZE: Rena Inoue & John Baldwin

I’m still fond of McBru; don’t get me wrong. But to me, Denney/Barrett are not only our team of the future, but the best team RIGHT NOW. They were a surprise last year, but have been extremely impressive since then at Worlds as well as both GP assignments this past Fall. The biggest surprise from them would be if they blow it. I’m sure their PCS’s aren’t as high yet as some of the more experienced teams, but I think they are coming along fine in that regard… and certainly have the content and consistency that no other U.S. team has right now. McBru will likely beat them if they skate clean, trouble is, I haven’t seen much of that lately from them. And as for John “my God he’s almost as old as my husband” Baldwin and his lovely bride-to-be… as always, if they can nail the throw triple axel they could well bank 2 more Olympic tickets. But then there’s the SBS triple toes, and SBS double axels, and, um…

DARK HORSES: Brooke Castile & Benjamin Okolski have done some lovely skating in the past, including win this crazy thing in 2007, but their one GP outing a couple months back was not a good one. Amanda Evora & Mark Ladwig have been knocking on the podium’s door for a few years now. And Caitlin Yankowskas & John Coughlin were a great SP surprise last year that imploded in the free skate. If they can get it together a little better this year, who knows?

For the Clip of the Day we’ll hit the Wayback Machine (was it really FOUR years ago?) to show Inoue/Baldwin’s victorious free skate that got them to Torino.

Something Old, Something New, Something Sent By Ryan Jahnke Too

This may well be the last roundup-type post I make for a couple of weeks, as Nationals are about to take over any idle space left in the always-percolating brains of bloggers like me for the next couple of weeks. So I might as use this opportunity to tell you that I’m not likely to get any predictions out this year for Euros (which start a week from now). Craziness continues over here as I continue to get my aforementioned “big project” wrapped up, so frankly I’ll be doing well to make predictions for the action in Spokane!

What else shall we talk about?

+ It's fairly old news by now, but speaking of Spokane… it looks to be a sort of Homecoming celebration as well, with ALL U.S. Olympic Gold Medalists—from Dick Button to Sarah Hughes, that amounts to a mere dozen men and women—showing up for an “on-ice presentation” followed by a fundraising dinner. What a sight that’s bound to be! You can read more about it in the International Figure Skating article found here.

+ And this may be even older news: according to numerous announcements such as this one , ABC will be broadcasting a two-night, live pro event in March with the moniker Thin Ice. The good news: reportedly signed to the show are Shizuka Arakawa (competing), Kurt Browning (announcing), and Dick Button and Kristi Yamaguchi (judging). The bad: one of the producers (Terry O’Neil) is the same guy who announced a big pro event back in the Fall of ’08 that failed to materialize. Will this one meet the same fate? Well, at least the timing seems better…fresh after an Olympic Games and all. And they appear to already have a network lined up, and a major one at that…

But on the other hand, WHO is “lined up” talent-wise, aside from Arakawa and Shae-Lynn Bourne (who continues to skate single)? Judging from the recent little interview Brian Boitano gave to Entertainment Weekly , he’s wondering the same thing. An excerpt:

Last question: Is there any chance you’re going to be on ABC’s Thin Ice this March? That’s the two-night competition that promises to pair up 12 of ”the world’s greatest pro figure skaters.”

BRIAN: I did see the list of “greatest professional skaters” that they had, and it was really a lame cast.

So that would be a no.

BRIAN: [Laughs] Yeah.

That was my reaction, too, when I read the press release.

BRIAN: They were hardly-even-heard-of professional skaters.

All-righty then!

+ Last but not least...and this is an important one for current skaters, coaches, and families… 2003 U.S. men’s bronze medalist Ryan Jahnke, AKA one of the only bright spots in the so-called “Disaster in Dallas”, is launching a new website called myskatingmall.com.

“The site will be a marketplace for new and gently used figure skating items and 5% of every purchase will be given to either the skating club or team of the people involved in the transaction,” Jahnke says. “The site will act as a perpetual fundraiser for skating clubs and teams. Also, every skater will be able to open up her or his own web store to sell the closet full of skating outfits that we all have:-) That's in addition to being able to purchase new items through partner stores linked to Myskatingmall.

“I hope to reduce some expenses for skating families by giving everyone access to the gently used outfits in closets of skaters all over the world.”

The official launch is planned for March, but you can check it out now for more details, videos, and blog entries. Sounds like one more thing I wish had existed back when I used to compete!

For the Clip of the Day, a must-see montage put together by Jahnke himself of his “greatest falls” in competition. Enjoy it!