Once More, With No Popped Jumps... Skate Canada '09 Predictions

And here we are, already at stop #6 on our (or their) Grand Prix adventure! My how time flies when you’re trying to calculate point deductions and positive GOEs. Lots of interesting showdowns to come this weekend… first, here are the showtimes:

For IceNetwork:

Friday, November 20

11:50 am - Pairs Short Program

1:15 pm - Ladies Short Program

6:30 pm - Compulsory Dance

7:55 pm - Mens Short Program

Saturday, November 21

12:00 pm - Original Dance

1:30 pm - Pairs Free Program

4:00 pm - Mens Free Program

7:00 pm - Ladies Free Program

Sunday, November 22

12:15 pm - Free Dance

For Universal Sports:

Friday 11/20, Pairs and Ladies short - 8 p.m.-9:30 p.m.

Saturday 11/21, Pairs Free and Men's Short - 5-7 p.m.

Men's Free - 8-9 p.m.
Sunday 11/22, Ladies Free - 4-6 p.m.

And again it will also be on NBC 2-4PM Sunday…

As for predictions?

For DANCE:

Gold: Virtue/Moir (CAN)
Silver: Pechalat/Bourzat (FRA)
Bronze: Samuelson/Bates (USA)

Does anyone know why Faiella/Scali withdrew from this? They’d have been my pick for silver behind V/M (with that sublime Mahler FD), but without them, I’ll go French with the only French couple present (Delobel/Schoenfelder were supposed to be here too, once upon a pre-preggers time). As for bronze, I’m really guessing but it would be nice to see Samuelson & Bates on the podium, especially if they’re front-runners for the third US dance spot in Vancouver.

For MEN:

Gold: Patrick Chan (CAN)
Silver: Jeremy Abbott (USA)
Bronze: Daisuke Takahashi (JPN)

Redemption, part un: JeremEEEE had a lousy skate last time out. Dice-K had a lousy skate last time out. Who will be more determined to show it was a fluke? Well, with Dice-K we have to wonder if, maybe, it wasn’t a fluke because he’s simply not back up to 100% yet. Then again, Abbott seems determined not to “peak too early”, and maybe he’ll somehow unintentionally psych himself out of doing his best. I’ll pick the latter for silver and Takahashi for bronze, if only because Abbott may have more control over how well he skates (assuming he’s healthy).
And I might be over-estimating Chan— I’m kind of putting him in the same spot I did with Takahashi at NHK, bouncing back strong after an injury—but then again, Chan’s injury didn’t keep him off the ice nearly as long. It’ll be nice to see what he has right about now on home ice. A dry run for Vancouver, maybe?

For PAIRS:

Gold: Savchenko/Szolkowy (GER)
Silver: Mukhortova/Trankov (RUS)
Bronze: Dube/Davison (CAN)

Redemption, part deux: Sav/Szol also had a miserable outing last time we saw them. In fact, didn’t I hear last weekend (during Skate America coverage) that their coach was working on a new program with them? Hmmm. If any of the poor skates by champs this season were flukes, I’d say theirs was surely one of them (Yu-Na Kim last week being the other one). So, I could have this all messed up, but I’ll still put them on top, ahead of Muk/Trank. (But if Sav/Szol blow it this time… no more benefit of the doubt!!) Americans Denney/Barrett could give Dube/Davison a technical run for bronze, but D/D should have the overall polish to take it with that lovely Way We Were program.

For LADIES:

Gold: Joannie Rochette (CAN)
Silver: Akiko Suzuki (JPN)
Bronze: Alissa Czisny (USA)

Redemption, part trois: Rochette already did some redeeming with her FS last time, but in front of the home crowd in a Vancouver Olympic year, I’m sure she intends to blow the roof off the joint here (as they say). After seeing how well she fared under pressure last year, I’m pulling for her to repeat… as for Czisny with a bronze—honestly it could be her, or Zhang, or Nagasu, or Laura Lepisto for that matter. But right now I think it’s Czisny I want to see succeed the most, so there you go.

Oh, and if you still want to know what the Magic 8-Ball is predicting for the ladies:

Gold: Czisny
Silver: Nagasu
Bronze: Rochette

Speaking of Czisny… remember this Clip of the Day from Skate Canada 2005? Apparently the 8-Ball does...

Grand Prix '09 Bubble Time...

BY THE WAY… you may have read this already, but Russia’s Andre Lutai (who just finished 10th out of 12 at this past weekend’s Skate America) was arrested in Lake Placid after the event. According to articles such as this one , the charges stealing a car and driving while intoxicated. Whoops.

Anyway…

Last year around this time I put together a list of the already-in, the might-be-in-after-they-skate-this-weekend, and the might-be-in-but-it’ll-be-a-long-weekend-until-they-know-for-sure… with regards to the Grand Prix Final, that is. Here is this year’s edition:

MEN
Already qualified: Nobunari Oda (30 points), Evan Lysacek (28), Brian Joubert (24), Johnny Weir (22)

Could still qualify after competing next weekend: Michel Brezina (11 points), Daisuke Takahashi (9), Samuel Contesti (9), Jeremy Abbott (7), Kevin VanDerPerren (7), Stephen Carriere (6), Alban Peaubert (4)

On the bubble: Tomas Verner (20)


LADIES

Already qualified: Yu-Na Kim (30 points), Miki Ando (30), Alena Leonova (24)

Could still qualify after competing next weekend: Akiko Suzuki (15 points), Joannie Rochette (11), Alissa Czisny (9), Caroline Zhang (9), Mirai Nagasu (7), Laura Lepisto (7), Cynthia Phaneuf (5)

On the bubble: Ashley Wagner (24), Rachael Flatt (22), Mao Asada (20), Yukuri Nakano (20)


PAIRS

Already qualified: Shen/Zhao (30 points), Pang/Tong (30), Kavaguti/Smirnov (26),

Could still qualify after competing next weekend: Mukhortova/Trankov (15 points), Dube/Davison (13), Savchenko/Szolkowy (11), Denney/ Barrett (9)

On the bubble: Zhang/Zhang (24), Volosohzar/Morozov (24), McLaughlin/Brubaker (20), Inoue/Baldwin (20)


DANCE

Already qualified: Davis/White (30 points), Belbin/Agosto (30), Cappellini/Novotte (26)

Could still qualify after competing next weekend: Virtue/Moir (15), Pechalat/Bourzat (13), Faiella/Scali (11 points), Bobrova/Soloviev (9), Samuelson/Bates (9),

On the bubble: Kerr/Kerr (24), Khoklova/Novitski (22), Crone/Poirier (20)


No Clip of the Day, but Skate Canada predictions are tomorrow, so it’ll be back soon!

Notes From The Drawing Board (Skate America 2009 Recap)

Did you notice I didn’t make any Magic 8-Ball predictions for Skate America?

It occurred to me sometime after I posted my guesses that I’d the big black plastic orb behind… but then I had the nerve to think Hey, I’ve been doing pretty good this year… who needs help from a childhood toy, anyway?

But looking at this week’s results… a paltry 5 for12 (guessed winners in all disciplines and Rachael Flatt for silver), it would appear I dismissed it too soon.

(Do you agree, 8-Ball? It is certain, it says… wiseguy.)

Anyway—if you watched any of the men’s SP coverage on Universal Sports Friday night, you may have heard Sandra Bezic make frequent use of the phrase “back to the drawing board”… in honor of all the competitors who either left their best jumps in the warm-up, on the practice ice, or never brought them in the first place. So that got me thinking… what might that illustrious “drawing board” really have on it—at least as far as Skate America developments go?

+ Lysacek’s Firebird costume. I know Vera Wang designed it, and she’s awesome… but all the black and all the feathers and all his pre-existing wingspan don’t equal a firebird. They equal a freaking CONDOR. (See above illustration) Caw-CAW!

+ Dan Zhang’s oomph. Must she suffer through Sing Sing Sing for her pairs SP if she’s not feeling it? Must we? Maybe we can sneak her some vitamin B12 next time…

+ The fine line between Adrian Schultheiss’ creativity and sensibility. I could go with the Swede’s free skate including Insane in the Brain as well as the theme from House M.D. (a.k.a. Teardrop by Massive Attack)… but to throw in a few lines from what sounded very much like… a PAC MAN game? Ya lost me.

ALSO ON THE BOARD…

+ My own sensibility… considering Susanna Poykio a dark horse for bronze? She finished second to last, for crying out loud. Nice going, Kelli.

+ A picture of “Canadian Quad King” Clay Aiken—who knew? (Whoops, guess I was looking at Kevin Reynolds…)

+ Navarro and Bommentre’s free dance music choice. Don’t get me wrong; I like U2 and “One” as much as anyone. I just don’t know that a mid-tempo rock piece is going to do much for them, especially internationally. Do any of my dance experts have an opinion on this?

+ Ryan Bradley’s “For Sale” sign for his program. Now this was what I expected at his last event and never got… an Amadeus free skate that he could really sell to the audience.

+ Duhamel/Buntin’s luck. First they had to contend with a badly cut hand at last year’s Trophee Eric Bompard… but at least that time they were able to finish. This time Meagan Duhamel fell on a throw triple salchow and banged her head in the process, forcing a withdrawal. Daaaang. Oh, Canada indeed!

+ Florent Amodio’s anonymity. After re-watching his short program (today’s Clip of the Day) , I’m not certain if I liked as much about his skating as I thought, or if he simply stood out because he was relatively error-free. But I AM certain that I will no longer confuse Amodio with Samuel Contesti. (what?? Yeah, don’t ask.)

+ Elena Glebova’s last name. I doubt she’d be delighted to know this, but when my kids first heard her name read on TV, they thought it was “Elena Bla-bla-bla.” Unfortunately that one’s bound to stick with me for a while.

And of course, the most notable thing left on that drawing board was Yu-Na Kim’s stunning consistency. On the one hand, I felt bad that NBC was hyping her to the nth degree only to see her fizzle for the first time in ages… but on the other hand, they showed a seemingly perfect athlete from overseas falter while an American girl (Flatt) put down her best skate of the season to date—not winning overall, but certainly making a statement with her free skate victory. How lucky could NBC get… after all the negative press about the USA’s lack of a current female skating star, they get to show on live TV how our ladies can still make it a ball game come Vancouver time!

Of course, we don’t even know if Flatt will make the Olympic team yet, but I’m just saying…

Unversal Schedule Update...

Another PS... I was informed that the times I'd obtained for Universal's coverage weren't accurate. Check out this link to Universal to get a more current schedule!

Skate America Best Bets

I’m late on it this week, so best get right to it! Starting with airtimes…

On IceNetwork.com…

Friday, Nov. 133:00 p.m.: Compulsory dance

7:30 p.m.: Pairs short program

9:00 p.m.: Men's short program

Saturday, Nov. 14

2:00 p.m.: Original dance

3:45 p.m.: Pairs free skate

7:00 p.m.: Ladies short program

9:00 p.m.: Men's free skate

Sunday, Nov. 15

4:30 p.m.: Free dance

On Universal Sports…

Fri. Nov. 13
7:00-8:00 PM (LIVE)
8:30-9:30 PM (LIVE)

Sat. Nov. 14
2:00-3:00 PM (LIVE)
4:00-5:00 PM (LIVE)

Sun. Nov. 15
5:00-7:00 PM Skate America

And…NBC, Sun. Nov. 15
2:00-4:00 PM (Ladies final)

As for predictions…

For DANCE:

Gold: Belbin/Agosto (USA)
Silver: Khokhlova/Novitski (RUS)
Bronze: Cappellini/Lanotte (ITA)

Not much to say here; Belgosto should sew up their GPF entry easily by the week’s end… and I’m basing silver and bronze on the number of points each team got in earlier events this season (K/N scored about 12 points higher than C/L).

For MEN:

Gold: Evan Lysacek (USA)
Silver: Tomas Verner (CZE)
Bronze: Brandon Mroz (USA)

This one’s risky, as Verner is sure to bring his quad (which looked great in Paris) and Lysacek reportedly is leaving his back in L.A. But I’m still going with Evan because he’s got the better all-around track record. Must admit I’m mighty fond of Verner’s work, though, and would always welcome a victory for him. The field is pretty weak after these two throw down their performances, but I’ll root for Brandon Mroz to make a turnaround from his Rostelecom disaster.

For PAIRS:

Gold: Shen/Zhao (CHN)
Silver: Zhang/Zhang (CHN)
Bronze: Volosozhar/Morozov (UKR)

It seems rather unfair that Zhang/Zhang have had to duke it out with Shen/Zhao in both of their GP events while Pang/Tong got to shine (and win) in separate competitions… but, in any case, a no-brainer here for gold and silver. Bronze is tougher, as I’d like to see McBru or Duhamel/Buntin with it, but I think V/M’s a more consistent team.

For LADIES:

Gold: Yu-Na Kim (KOR)
Silver: Rachael Flatt (USA)
Bronze: Susanna Poykio (FIN)

Another no-brainer for gold here, though if that turns out to be wrong there sure will be a lot of interesting press (She IS beatable!!!). The rest of the field, frankly, seems void of any serious competition. Suguri’s a possibility I suppose, but I’m hoping Flatt will make the splash that she needs to make on her “home turf”. And no, I haven’t forgotten about Sebestyen, but I think she can be outskated again in the long run—if not by Poykio, perhaps by Alexe Gilles (who I’d love to see with a medal). Sentimental favorite would have to be Emily Hughes—how great that doing this event gives her a “bye” for Nationals!-- but it seems like a top-5 finish for her would be victory enough.

Speaking of Hughes, this Clip of the Day was taken from a Disson show on NBC from about a year ago. Looking forward to Lake Placid this weekend…

The Men Who Put the NO in Nagano (NHK Review Pt. 2)

For the second week in a row, I did fairly well in my podium predictions—9 for 12 at Cup of China; and now 8 for 12 at NHK Trophy. But also for the second week in a row, 3 of the predictions went completely up in smoke when one of the singles’ events went through the meat grinder in terms of expectations and placements. At Cup of China, it was the ladies… this time, we had Joubert and Weir back to form… sort of glad to see it… but what about the other top male contenders?

T.A.M.I.A. ALERT—the Triple Axel Missing In Action network appeared to claim a few more members—everyone from Takahashi (noooo!) to Kozuka (huh?) to Joubert (must be nice to have that quad as backup—didn’t realize he and Lambiel had that much in common). Oh, and other than Johnny Weir, who snapped out of his Sparkly Boy haze long enough to put down two almost-clean programs and claim silver… TAMIA was affecting our Americans just as badly. Adam Rippon still looked great this time, but going 1-for-3 on the axels won’t cut it. Not even when those around you are too busy polishing the ice with their keisters to land much of anything. Speaking of Mr. Abbott…(oooh, snap)

The stumbles of JEREM-who?-- With that awesome, free-flowing Day in the Life SP, I was convinced he was back to the form that served him so well around this time last year. But then came that FS…okay, we all know it was a hot mess. But kudos to Abbott for creating the best “What the hell was THAT??” look of puzzlement I’ve seen in a long time. Did you hear him talking about how “at least I didn’t peak too early this year” afterwards? I almost wonder if his subconscious was messing with him the whole time out of a fear that if it went well, it might bode poorly for later in the season.

Oh, and one more thing I’ve gotta say about Jeremy Abbott… I’m digging the new costumes.

LA STRAKAHASHI—Part of what disappoints so much is when you see all the essentials of a killer program, but the jumps just aren’t there on a given day. That’s how I felt about Dice-K’s take on La Strada. Like Oda’s Chaplin, this is a piece so rippling with personality, I don’t even mind having to eat some crow for saying he has “quad consistency” on his side (I suppose His Evgeniness might be the only one to truly live up to that). I do mind the other falls suffered by Takahashi, though. Daaang.

In other disciplines…

Kudos, DENNEY/BARRETT—though they didn’t make the podium, they still delivered the breakout work I was hoping to see (especially with such a solid SP as the first competitors of the whole event!). And… did anyone notice that, with Firebird as their SP and Scheherazade for the FS they happen to be using the same music this season as one Evan Lysacek? (Though the cuts are surely different)

As for Ice Dance, I was impressed with all three on the podium. Crone/Poirier I admittedly didn’t watch closely their first time out this season, but I enjoyed their music and their kind of unique-looking twizzles. The Kerrs… I’ve liked them all along, and am glad they had a chance to scoop up two medals thus far this GP season. And Davis/White… well, I’m letting “the Phantom” grow on me. Anyway, great effort by all three, and I just hope the top teams who aren’t competing this GP season don’t effortlessly breeze by teams like these when Olympic time comes near.

In lieu of a clip, here’s an article of the day … this weekend marks the 30th (!) anniversary of Skate America; the article features recollections from Scott Hamilton, Peter Carruthers, and Lisa-Marie Allen (who finally got to win a major international competition there in ’79!). Come for the stories, stay for the photo archives from the event formerly known as Norton Skate. Predictions for this weekend coming soon!

P.S. Skate America: Cohen Out, Hughes In

Just had to add this headline that I spotted on IceNetwork's home page shortly after posting my longer piece. As with Trophee Eric Bompard, Cohen is withdrawing from this weekend's Skate America competition due to injury. (That's "strike 2" for those keeping tabs on her comeback.)

EmilyHughes has been announced as her replacement, so she steps into the pinch-hitting-for-a-major-player role for at least the second time in her career.

Oh, and if you check out Laura's Required Elements blog, you'll see there was a story over the weekend talking not about this injury as much as Cohen's return to having John Nicks as her coach. Interestingly, the Ice Network release still lists her coach as Rafael Arutunian... so perhaps even more news from Camp Cohen is yet to come.