Thursday, November 19, 2009

Once More, With No Popped Jumps... Skate Canada '09 Predictions

And here we are, already at stop #6 on our (or their) Grand Prix adventure! My how time flies when you’re trying to calculate point deductions and positive GOEs. Lots of interesting showdowns to come this weekend… first, here are the showtimes:

For IceNetwork:

Friday, November 20

11:50 am - Pairs Short Program

1:15 pm - Ladies Short Program

6:30 pm - Compulsory Dance

7:55 pm - Mens Short Program

Saturday, November 21

12:00 pm - Original Dance

1:30 pm - Pairs Free Program

4:00 pm - Mens Free Program

7:00 pm - Ladies Free Program

Sunday, November 22

12:15 pm - Free Dance

For Universal Sports:

Friday 11/20, Pairs and Ladies short - 8 p.m.-9:30 p.m.

Saturday 11/21, Pairs Free and Men's Short - 5-7 p.m.

Men's Free - 8-9 p.m.
Sunday 11/22, Ladies Free - 4-6 p.m.

And again it will also be on NBC 2-4PM Sunday…

As for predictions?


Gold: Virtue/Moir (CAN)
Silver: Pechalat/Bourzat (FRA)
Bronze: Samuelson/Bates (USA)

Does anyone know why Faiella/Scali withdrew from this? They’d have been my pick for silver behind V/M (with that sublime Mahler FD), but without them, I’ll go French with the only French couple present (Delobel/Schoenfelder were supposed to be here too, once upon a pre-preggers time). As for bronze, I’m really guessing but it would be nice to see Samuelson & Bates on the podium, especially if they’re front-runners for the third US dance spot in Vancouver.

For MEN:

Gold: Patrick Chan (CAN)
Silver: Jeremy Abbott (USA)
Bronze: Daisuke Takahashi (JPN)

Redemption, part un: JeremEEEE had a lousy skate last time out. Dice-K had a lousy skate last time out. Who will be more determined to show it was a fluke? Well, with Dice-K we have to wonder if, maybe, it wasn’t a fluke because he’s simply not back up to 100% yet. Then again, Abbott seems determined not to “peak too early”, and maybe he’ll somehow unintentionally psych himself out of doing his best. I’ll pick the latter for silver and Takahashi for bronze, if only because Abbott may have more control over how well he skates (assuming he’s healthy).
And I might be over-estimating Chan— I’m kind of putting him in the same spot I did with Takahashi at NHK, bouncing back strong after an injury—but then again, Chan’s injury didn’t keep him off the ice nearly as long. It’ll be nice to see what he has right about now on home ice. A dry run for Vancouver, maybe?


Gold: Savchenko/Szolkowy (GER)
Silver: Mukhortova/Trankov (RUS)
Bronze: Dube/Davison (CAN)

Redemption, part deux: Sav/Szol also had a miserable outing last time we saw them. In fact, didn’t I hear last weekend (during Skate America coverage) that their coach was working on a new program with them? Hmmm. If any of the poor skates by champs this season were flukes, I’d say theirs was surely one of them (Yu-Na Kim last week being the other one). So, I could have this all messed up, but I’ll still put them on top, ahead of Muk/Trank. (But if Sav/Szol blow it this time… no more benefit of the doubt!!) Americans Denney/Barrett could give Dube/Davison a technical run for bronze, but D/D should have the overall polish to take it with that lovely Way We Were program.


Gold: Joannie Rochette (CAN)
Silver: Akiko Suzuki (JPN)
Bronze: Alissa Czisny (USA)

Redemption, part trois: Rochette already did some redeeming with her FS last time, but in front of the home crowd in a Vancouver Olympic year, I’m sure she intends to blow the roof off the joint here (as they say). After seeing how well she fared under pressure last year, I’m pulling for her to repeat… as for Czisny with a bronze—honestly it could be her, or Zhang, or Nagasu, or Laura Lepisto for that matter. But right now I think it’s Czisny I want to see succeed the most, so there you go.

Oh, and if you still want to know what the Magic 8-Ball is predicting for the ladies:

Gold: Czisny
Silver: Nagasu
Bronze: Rochette

Speaking of Czisny… remember this Clip of the Day from Skate Canada 2005? Apparently the 8-Ball does...

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