2020 U.S. Nationals Previews & Predictions (Ice Dance & Men)

Ice dance starts Friday at the 2020 U.S. Nationals in Greensboro; the men start their event on Saturday. Here are a few notes about both:

                            

DANCE: I was surprised to learn that only NINE dance teams are competing at the senior level this year (compared to 14 teams at the junior level). Among those nine is the new pairing of Caroline Green and Michael Parsons, both of whom competed with their siblings (Gordon Green and Rachel Parsons, respectively) until last year. They took 7^th place in both their GP assignments earlier in the season. 

As for placement predictions—as usual with ice dance, I’m combining personal preference with anticipated scores based on the way I’ve watched these programs be judged through the season:

GOLD: Chock/Bates

SILVER: Hubbell/Donohue

BRONZE: Carriera/Ponomarenko

4^th: Hawayek/Baker

5^th: Green/Parsons

I wasn’t sure I thought it was a good idea for Chock/Bates to continue competing post-PyeongChang—they’d accomplished plenty already, Madison had a pretty intense injury/surgery to recover from last season, and they seemed to hit a competitive plateau maybe as long as 3 seasons ago. But this year’s Egyptian Snake Dance FD changed all that for me. They were able to edge H/D for the silver medal at the Grand Prix Final; I’m hopeful they’ll defeat them again here. Last time they won Nats: 2015.

The battle for bronze might prove even bigger than the one for gold this year… that’s because Hawayek/Baker (the reigning bronze medalists) struggled big time on the GP circuit this past fall, particularly with their Beethoven free dance. I’m extremely fond of H/B in general, and was kind of hoping they’d either unveil a new FD at Nats or return to last year’s highly successful Irrepressibles FD. As of now, I haven’t heard any major changes they’re making… and that’s why (sigh) I think they could lose bronze this year to the still-building Carriera/Ponomarenko.

MEN: If the field of 16 competitors looks smaller this year than usual, that’s because it is: four men who otherwise qualified for Nats cannot compete because they didn’t reach the minimum TES score now required by USFS. Oh, and if you’re looking for veteran competitors Timothy Dolensky and Alexander Johnson, both of whom finished as high as 6^th here in previous years… sorry, but they’ve both retired.

Among the “new” competitors is 22-year-old Yaroslav Paniot, who competed for Ukraine until last season, as well as last year’s Juniors champ Ryan Dunk (age 19). The top 5 from last year—Chen, Zhou, Brown, Hiwatashi, and Krasnozhon—will all be there.

Cutting to the chase, I don’t anticipate a lot of movement in the top placement this year. Chen seems as much of a lock for his 4^th consecutive title as there could be. Zhou has been out of sight much of this season as he sorted out his new college-student status, but he’s looked as good in practices this week as he ever has. Brown’s in the most vulnerable spot, as usual, with his likely lack of quads… but until one of the up and comers (namely Hiwatashi, Krasnozhon, Pulkinen, or Torgashev) get a lot more consistent in their efforts, I’m giving Brown the benefit of the doubt for bronze.

                                           

GOLD: Nathan Chen

SILVER: Vincent Zhou

BRONZE: Jason Brown

4^th: Camden Pulkinen

5^th: Tomoki Hiwatashi

I’ll be on Twitter for much of the action this weekend (@KLBSt8ofSk8)… say HI if you see me over there!