Calling Back Kelowna: 2014 Skate Canada in Review

Two weeks into the Grand Prix series and it feels like we never left!

For some of our skating favorites, though, it looks like they aren’t really back yet... unless they’re the ones that have clearly been doing pushups and squats in the basement all summer, getting stronger. Here’s my take on 2014 Skate Canada International:

MEN RESULTS...

GOLD: Takahito Mura (JPN)

SILVER: Javier Fernandez (ESP)

BRONZE: Max Aaron (USA)

+  Before predicting Javier Fernandez to win, I should have had a little conversation with Johnny Weir. Then I would have realized Fernandez has been in “show mode” the entire off-season (as opposed to just the late spring), and wasn’t ready yet for this level of competition. While his “Black Betty” short program was stellar and showed signs of becoming one of the “IT” SPs of the season, the Rossini FS was off from his first jump, and never really came together. (I’d like to think the costume for that one is also “not ready”; could that bland ensemble really be what he wears all season?) In any case, he’s scheduled to be at Rostelecom Cup in two weeks so we’ll see if he’s able to gain any ground in that time.

+  Adam (Rippon) and Taka (Kozuka) are both trying very hard to break my heart. Both are beautiful, accomplished competitors with a history of inconsistent finishes (but considerable triumphs among them). One has struggled with triple axel demons for years; the other has only recently done so. Watching each of them barely break 200 points in their totals last weekend left me, and maybe countless others, wondering: does either guy stand a chance of making their respective World teams this year... and will they compete any longer if they don’t?

+  I want to know who it was in the USFS organization earlier this year that zeroed in on Stephen Carriere—a former U.S. medalist, now in his mid-20s, who had finished 10^th at Nationals two years running and had not been a part of the Grand Prix since 2010—and said “This guy gets two GP events next season.” Because it just might’ve been... genius?!  The fact is, Carriere used to be assigned to these events regularly, and even medaled at them. Twice. But we’re talking six and seven seasons ago, when he was fresh off of winning Junior Worlds in 2007. Since early 2009, his results have been by and large less than spectacular... and time will tell if 2014-15 will truly be any different. He DID win the Ondrej Nepala Trophy earlier in the season, though—his first international win in three years—and followed it up by being thisclose to a bronze medal (or, technically speaking, 0.1 points) here at Skate Canada. Do we call it a comeback yet? Rostelecom Cup is his next stop...

PAIRS RESULTS...

GOLD: Duhamel/Radford (CAN)

SILVER: Sui/Han (CHN)

BRONZE: Tarasova/Morozov (RUS)

+  Duhamel/Radford won in such convincing fashion, I’d completely forgotten it was their first-ever GP title! But indeed it is. Kudos to the ever-challenging Canadian team!

+  Speaking of Canadian teams, Kirsten Moore-Towers made her GP debut with new partner Michael Marinaro, finishing a solid 6^th here (and only a few points from 5^th). Not bad! But for now, I must admit I miss Dylan Moscovitch...

+  I saw a lot of “When did Sui/Han grow up??” comments on Twitter, and with good reason. Maybe the long-awaited retirement of Pang/Tong has something to do with it; maybe we can just blame the good old passage of time, but Sui/Han did more than just win silver at Skate Canada—they looked, more than ever before, like a long-term future for China.

+  As for a long-term future for U.S. pairs... eh, we’re still working on that. But in the meantime, our reigning Junior champs Madeline Aaron/Max Settlage are certainly doing their part. Not just at SkCan, where they finished a solid 4^th, but at SkAM a couple weeks ago (finishing 5^th), Nebelhorn a few weeks before that (6^th), and even the U.S. Classic a few weeks ahead of that (3^rd). Busy much?? Thankfully, The King and I—I mean, “she”... get a well-deserved rest, of sorts, for the rest of the year before heading into their Nationals senior debut.

DANCE RESULTS...

GOLD: Weaver/Poje (CAN)

SILVER: Gilles/Poirier (CAN)

BRONZE: Hubbell/Donohue (USA)

+  Gilles/Poirier for the surprise silver! I did pretty well with most of my SkCan predictions-- except here in Dance, where I couldn’t find silver and bronze to save my life. Apparently I should’ve put more faith in my Dark Horse choice. I couldn’t imagine saying that after watching Poirier’s twizzles spin out of orbit during the SD, but they pulled it together nicely the next day. Guess their old-fashion-ish FD (set to four different pieces of music that I’m just not going to name here, sorry) is going over better with the judges than Psycho did—at least so far.

+  Let’s talk about Hubbell/Donohue’s FD, set to music from the Great Gatsby soundtrack. I wanted to like it, I really did. But I didn’t... at least not yet. I’m glad they won bronze here, but even their FD score (in the high 80s, compared to 90+ for both U.S. dance teams at SkAM a week earlier) seemed to reflect a certain sense of “meh”. Or maybe I’m just missing something. What did you think?

+  Obviously Weaver/Poje were finally able to move out of the bridesmaid role and claim their first SkCan title in fine fashion. Less obvious, to me, were enough problems in the Hurtado/Diaz FD to set them solidly in last place (a place they were NOT in following the SD).  I like this up-and-coming couple very much, and it usually seems the judges do as well...but I couldn’t find any egregious errors here and I’m puzzled. Ice dance details are not my strong suit, though. Can anyone else explain it?

LADIES RESULTS...

GOLD: Anna Pogorilaya (RUS)

SILVER: Ashley Wagner (USA)

BRONZE: Satoko Miyahara (JPN)

+   I think many people thought this event was Ashley Wagner’s to lose, but as you know I called it for eventual winner Anna Pogorilaya. What I didn’t make clear in the predictions post was that I did so almost entirely for content/difficulty reasons. Even before I saw the already-retooled-since-Japan-Open Wagner FS... knowing the jumping passes Pogorilaya is capable of, and executes with fair success in most every program (save for her apparent nemesis, the SP double axel), it simply seemed that those points would pile up quickly. Add in the more likeable FS this season—maybe not saying much, but I still prefer her “Firebird” to her “Mermaid” of last year—and the strong PCS scores were sure to follow. Even against the more complete, mature package that is Wagner.

+  Speaking of Wagner: Spartacus SP was very nice (another Adam Rippon choreo project, if I’m not mistaken). Moulin Rouge FS... not my favorite, but I can live with it. The jumping strategies involved are actually more interesting to me right now than the programs. Yes, the skating purist in me cringes at that sentence as it shakes a fist at the sky and growls “Curse you, IJS!!” But I know Wagner’s skating by now, and how it’s grown in eight years on the senior circuit. So if she and her team want to tinker with the jump placement, jump combos, and even (in the case of her lutz) jump omissions, all in order to maximize points... I say tinker away. (As long as she keeps doing all she can to get things rotated.)

+  Satoko Miyahara. Is that name burned into your brain yet? Methinks it just might be by the end of this season. She’s special. She might be Akiko Suzuki-special, with time. And if the puberty monster is kind, of course... (she’s 16 and not even 5 feet tall yet).

Back later with Cup of China predictions!

2014 Skate Canada International Preview/Predictions

Fun fact about Kelowna, B.C. (location of this year's Skate Canada International): It was the shooting locale for Fido, "a comedy/horror/thriller movie about zombies" that debuted at the Toronto Film Festival in 2006. 

How do you like that? I've got the preview up 2 hours in advance AND have provided you some Halloween-ish trivia. Yay! 

So let's get down to business...

 

MEN PREDICTIONS

GOLD: Javier Fernandez (ESP)

SILVER: Takahito Mura (JPN)

BRONZE: Max Aaron (USA)

Dark Horse: Adam Rippon (USA) and Michal Brezina (CZE)

I pick Fernandez easily in what is, frankly, a sea of not-so-heavy hitters this year (Patrick Chan taking the year off and all). Mura could upset, but I'd be amazed if anyone else did. Brezina's new Marriage of Figaro FS looked pretty good in the early season, but I still question his stamina issues too much to make him more than a dark horse option. Rippon's FS to Piano Concerto #1 (Liszt) looked even better when I gave it a look a few weeks back; if he had to move on from last year's glorious Debussy program (and given the sadness he must've felt in not making the Olympic team, well, who can blame him?), this is a good way to go. But let's see him put a good SP & LP back to back... then I'll look for him back on the podium.

P.S. While I'm not fond of Aaron's "Footloose" SP, and he made some silly mistakes in his season debut 2 months ago, I still point to his quads as a worthy reason to put him 3rd.

PAIRS PREDICTIONS

GOLD:  Duhamel/Radford (CAN)

SILVER: Sui/Han (CHN)

BRONZE: Tarasova/Morozov (RUS)

Dark Horse: James/Cipres (FRA)

Duhamel/Radford have their own throw quad salchow now; it was unveiled at the Autumn Classic a few weeks back. Pair that with side by side triple lutzes, and they now have some of the most technically challenging programs in the business. Sui/Han usually have a few quad tricks up their sleeve as well, so they're an easy pick for silver (and could win if D/R fall apart). New on the senior scene is Tarasova/Morozov; listen for the familiar strains of Lionel Richie's "Hello" (in orchestral form) when they perform their FS.

DANCE PREDICTIONS

GOLD: Weaver/Poje (CAN)

SILVER: Hubbell/Donohue (USA)

BRONZE: Zhiganshina/Gazsi (GER)

Dark Horse: Gilles/Poirier (CAN)

W/P for the win? Easy. The rest? Heh. But I'm pulling for the sometimes overlooked Hubbell/Donohue to get silver with a Great Gatsby-themed FD. Zhiganshina/Gazsi are always wildly entertaining, if not technically outstanding, so I see them possibly edging out Gilles/Poirier (who I prefer, to be honest) with Z/G's "Swan Lake Reloaded" FD.

LADIES PREDICTIONS

GOLD: Anna Pogorilaya (RUS)

SILVER: Satoko Miyahara (JPN)

BRONZE: Ashley Wagner (USA)

Dark Horse: Alena Leonova (RUS) or Courtney Hicks (USA)

I love Wagner's skating, and I'm glad she's continuing beyond Sochi. But, like Nagasu, she's developed a reputation for UR jumps that I'm afraid will be tough to shake... even when she does fully rotate them. (Reputations are like that.) I tend to think she'll be outskated here by both Miyahara (who has a charming Miss Saigon FS) and Pogorilaya, who managed to make Firebird infinitely more interesting-- when she skated it at the Japan Open-- than the Mermaids (Pirates of the Caribbean) FS of last season. 

Both Leonova and Hicks earned 2nd place finishes at Challenger Series events earlier in the season, and I think either one could make a podium visit if they are "on".

Remember, Skate Canada International only lasts Friday (today) and Saturday-- nothing on Sunday! Check this link for start times. I'll be off-and-on live tweeting both days... find me @KLBSt8ofSk8 and/or use #SC2014. 

Gone With the Windy City: 2014 Skate America in Review

I’m so out of BlogShape... post some predictions, watch some skating, tweet about it, drum up a commentary, make some more predictions... all within a week or so?? Really?

Oh wait, I forgot—I’ve done this drill the past eight years. Just because I became a slacker this off-season doesn’t mean I’ve lost all my muscle memory. So here’s a look back at last weekend’s Skate America—where I managed a 6-for-12 with the medal predictions—and while you’re reading this, I’ll be on the treadmill for the next one.

SkAM 2014 in Review

NOTEWORTHY MEN:

Machida (1^st overall)—No contest. Even with a couple flaws.

Brown (2^nd overall)— He did better at Nebelhorn, but I like these programs. Especially his Tristan & Isolde FS.

Ngyuen (2^nd in FS, 3^rd overall)—My biggest underestimation of the event. What an impressive senior GP debut! Reminds me of the guy who won bronze at this event last year (who happens to be the guy who won silver that I just talked about)

Ten (4^th overall)—The pattern continues... meaning one where you can see where the reigning OBM intends to take us with his programs but isn’t able to get the job done. Yet. The last minute or so of his FS promises to be especially moving if gets the jumping passes on his side.

Abbott (2^nd in SP, 6^th in FS, 5^th overall) – Sigh. Speaking of a pattern continuing... what can I say? At least he didn’t seem too upset about it.

Razzano (8^th overall) – I’m starting to think of Razzano as the U.S.’s Jeremy Ten—an athlete whose work shines through his competitive jumping errors just enough for us to see what a beautiful skater he really is. But unfortunately, for now, the inconsistencies take center stage as they did here.

NOTEWORTHY LADIES:

Radionova (1^st overall)—The skating world wouldn’t be the same without some perpetual force of Unstoppable Dynamo, and for the time being, that force is Radionova. Fortunately she doesn’t yet seem to feel the weight of the world on her diminutive shoulders... no matter how many crystals and stones they pile onto her FS costume.

(Have you taken a good look at that thing? It’s bench-pressable!)

Tuktamysheva (2^nd overall)—I should have taken into account how many back-to-backs she’s done; we’re not even out of October yet and she’s competed internationally FOUR times, winning the other three events! And she still won the SP here!

Gold (3^rd overall)—She goes into this season for the first time as The Hunted, a.k.a. National champ and highest finisher in Sochi among the U.S. ladies. Not an enviable position. She’s now 19 years old and 5’5”... not a young sprite by skating standards (even though she’s only been in the spotlight a couple of years). So while I’m not saying she’s lucky to have any medal at all from this event, based on how she skated, it’s understandable why it was bronze this time. I think she’s capable of more. We’ll see if it happens.

Cesario (4^th overall)—She’s increasingly fun to watch, even in her second year of using Carmen for her FS (dare I say, especially when she’s using Carmen? Nah, I’d better not. We all know the reality of Carmena Overdosa...)

Park (of S. Korea, 5^th overall)—Kim Yu-Na’s influence is clear with Park as she skated here more like she did at last season’s Worlds (where she finished 9^th) than the Sochi Olympics (where she ended up 21^st). It will be interesting to see if she can keep this up at Rostelecom Cup in a few weeks.

Nagasu (6^th overall) – making up for a dismal SP with a score in the upper 40s (!!), Nagasu skated a clean FS—or seemed to, until the jump downgrades chipped away at her TES. Were they all justified? Or is her reputation her destiny? Honestly the bigger problem, for me, is that she looks to be skating emotion-free. To Madame Butterfly, no less. Maybe it was due to a determination to focus and bounce back at this event, but I got a similar vibe (or lack thereof) when she skated the same program at Japan Open a few weeks ago.

NOTEWORTHY PAIRS:

Kavaguti/Smirnov (1^st overall)—apparently Moskvina really came up with the perfect vehicle for them while Smirnov was resting his injured shoulder last year. What a comeback!

Denney/Frazier(2^nd overall)—Armed with a Lion King FS, these two got the best finish by a US couple at a GP event since 2008!

Peng/Zhang (3^rd overall)—Had I seen their new FS in advance, I might not have predicted them to win. It didn’t rub me the right way.

DANCE:

Chock/Bates (1^st overall)—I like this An American in Paris FD much, much better than their Les Miz offering last season. Did you know Bates and his former partner Emily Samuelson had American/Paris as their 2010-11 FD? Sadly most of us never saw it, as an injury crushed that entire season for them. I wonder how Samuelson feels about his using it four years later? But I digress...

Shib Sibs (2^nd overall)— Their Blue Danube FD definitely brings back the clean lines of their Nat King Cole-infused heyday of a few years ago. But it wasn’t much of a showdown between the Shibs and Chock/Bates; the 10+ point gap between 1^st and 2^nd allows plenty of room for yet another U.S. dance team to sneak into the mix. What’s a top brother/sister team to do? (That doesn’t have to be rhetorical; if you have a suggestion for them leave it in the comments!)

Stepanova/Bukin (3^rd overall)—I like ‘em. I like their music choice (haven’t heard Eleanor Rigby in the FD since Davis/White used it many years ago), I like their simplistic look, their lines, and their rather unique choreographic moments. They’re young, so I know all this (sigh) might change in a year or two. But for now? StepKin is somethin’ somethin’ :-)

SKATE CANADA PREVIEW/PREDICTIONS COMING SHORTLY!

(SOMETIME BEFORE THE EVENT STARTS!)

2014 Skate America Preview/Predictions

Well it's that time again! #SA2014 here I come. I swear Worlds ended last month... What happened?! Lol

So Tweeted one Jeremy Abbott to his 45 thousand-plus followers, a day or two ago. And while those days between Worlds and SkAM may or may not have flown by for the rest of us, it’s most definitely time for the latter. In my home town, no less!

(Well 27.4 miles northwest of my home town, if I’m being honest. But it’s all part of what they call “Chicagoland” back home.)

Much as I hoped to be there at SkAM myself, selling & signing copies of Skating on Air on the concourse... sadly, it’s not to be. (But if YOU want a really good price on a signed copy of my book, you know where to find me, right? Send me an email! Seriously!)

The consolation prize is my updating the blog twice in two days—yes, it’s really me; I know I’ve only averaged one post (or less!) a month since Worlds and it might seem like trolls have taken over the blog at last. But could trolls make Skate America 2014 podium guesses like this?:

ICE DANCE PREDICTIONS

Gold—Chock/Bates (USA)

Silver—Shibutanis (USA)

Bronze—Stepanova/Bukin (RUS)

Dark Horse, A.K.A. Watch out for... Orford/Williams (CAN) or Guignard/Fabbri (ITA)

The U.S. ice dance crown is truly up for grabs this season, and Chock/Bates appear to be heirs to the Davis/White throne. But the Shib Sibs have voiced every intent to make a run for the title themselves. I suspect C/B still has the edge, but watch this showdown closely as the tone—maybe for the entire season—is set.

MEN PREDICTIONS

Gold—Tatsuki Machida (JPN)

Silver—Jason Brown (USA)

Bronze—Jeremy Abbott (USA)

Dark Horse: Denis Ten (KAZ)

Last year, Machida claimed the SkAM crown so convincingly (with a total score in the 260s!) you’d have thought he was a favorite for the podium in Sochi. Now that he’s come pretty close to that latter feat—finishing 5^th at the Games—it all comes to be a bit more expected now. Which is why I’ve picked him to defend his title successfully here, with Brown (who just won Nebelhorn Trophy a few weeks back) the runner-up. As for Abbott, count me among the few (?) who have not seen a speck of his new programs yet... but he hasn’t received many SkAM assignments through the years, and has yet to medal at the event. Despite my misgivings about him continuing to compete (see my September post), I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt this time around and peg him for bronze.

But all this could be for naught if reigning Olympic Bronze Medalist Denis Ten does something rare for this early in the season, and outshines the pack. He’s a wild card for me right now, particularly since he wasn’t able to compete at his “B” assignment (Nebelhorn).

PAIRS PREDICTIONS

Gold-- Peng/Zhang (CHN)

Silver-- Kavaguti/Smirnov (RUS)

Bronze-- Scimeca/Knierim (USA)

Dark Horse—Denney/Frazier (USA)

With OGMs Volo/Trank out with an injury, there is no defending pairs champ on hand this year at SkAM. In fact, I just looked over last year’s field and realized at least half those pairs teams aren’t even together anymore! But Kavaguti/Smirnov, bless their hearts, are pressing on past last year’s season-ending injury... and I expect to see them make the podium, just like old times. BUT Peng/Zhang were becoming quite the force as last season progressed, so I’m giving them the upper hand for now. What I’ve seen of Scimeca/Knierim and Denney/Frazier this season makes them pretty evenly matched, so consider that bronze prediction a coin toss.

LADIES PREDICTIONS

Gold—Elizaveta Tuktamysheva (RUS)

Silver—Elena Radionova (RUS)

Bronze—Gracie Gold (USA)

Dark Horse—Mirai Nagasu (USA) or Samantha Cesario (USA)

Although I’m not fond of her new costumes—too billowy, in my opinion, and unable to show off her body lines as they should—Liza T. looked very strong in her “B” events and could well re-claim the SkAM title she first won back in 2011. If not her? Then I look to Radionova, who was a tiny powerhouse in the GP last year but ultimately too young for Olympic competition. I saw no signs of the puberty monster hitting her yet at the Japan Open a few weeks ago, so it should be an interesting showdown between the Russian teens. USA’s own Gracie Gold could prove a spoiler, but only if she seriously improves on her Nebelhorn performance (where she finished 10 points behind Liza T.).

OK, gotta get this posted because things are getting started VERY SOON!

In a Nutshell! Skating's 2014-15 Pre-Season/JGP Season/"B" Season

Skate America gets underway in Hoffman Estates (aka Suburban Chicago) Friday night at 8PM Eastern time, which means the unofficial official season start is close at hand! 

(So close, in fact, that I’ll include THIS LINK to Ice Network's "Viewer's Guide" so you can be ready when that Short Dance kicks things off...)

But have you been following the sport since late August? There’s plenty of need-to-knows floating amongst figure skating’s unofficial pre-season. Let’s see if I can boil it down to FIVE:

1) If you haven’t been to isu.org lately, go check it out. A major summer overhaul benefits it greatly, at least in terms of keeping track of which competition is happening where and when. A simple horizontal “Upcoming Events” calendar makes it easy to see and click through (if you like) on not only the GP sched, but the ISU Junior Grand Prix and the new-but-really-it’s-not ISU Challenger Series, featuring 11 “B” meets including the debut of the Skate Canada Autumn Classic (held just this past weekend).

2) Winners from the Challenger series to date include Polina Edmunds (U.S. Int’l Figure Skating Classic), Richard Dornbush (Lombardia Trophy), Kavaguti/Smirnov (Nebelhorn Trophy), The Shibutanis (Ondrej Nepala Trophy), Elizaveta Tuktamysheva (Finlandia Trophy), and Ross Miner (Autumn Classic).

3) The JGP wrapped up in Zagreb a couple weeks back... here’s the list of those teenagers who made it to the JGP Final, held at GP Final time in mid-December:

MEN: Jin Boyang (CHN), Shoma Uno (JPN), Alexander Petrov (RUS), Lee June-hyoung** (KOR), Sota Yamamoto (JPN), Roman Sandovsky **(CAN)

LADIES: Serafima Sakhanovich **(RUS), Evgenia Medvedeva (RUS), Wakaba Higuchi **(JPN), Maria Sotskova (RUS), Yuka Nagai (JPN), Miyu Nakashio (JPN)

PAIRS: Julianne Seguin/Charlie Bilodeau (CAN), Maria Vigalova/Egor Zakroev (RUS), Lina Federova/Maxim Miroshkin (RUS), Kamilla Gainetdinova/Sergei Alexeev (RUS), Daria Beklemisheva/Maxim Bobrov (RUS), Chelsea Liu/Brian Johnson (USA)

DANCE: Anna Yanovskaya/Sergei Mozgov (RUS), Mackenzie Bent/Garrett MacKeen (CAN), Betina Popova/Yuri Vlasenko ** (RUS), Alla Loboda/Pavel Drozd (RUS), Madeline Edwards/Zhao Kai Pang (CAN), Daria Morozova/Mikhail Zhirnov (RUS)

** = Skaters in the JGP that stood out for me this season. Other names on that list that did NOT make the Final include Chase Belemontes (USA), Amber Glenn (USA), Shpilevaya/Smirnov, Dance (RUS), Luke West (USA), Andrew Torgashev (USA), Anastasia Gubanova/Alexei Sintsov, Pairs (RUS)

4) Injuries! Yep, they’ve been cropping up ahead of GP season, and all of the following have bowed out of their GP events as a result:

Volosozhar/Trankov, RUS (injury to Trankov)

Bobrova/Soloviev, RUS (injury to Soloviev)

Valentina Marchei, ITA

Kaetlyn Osmond, CAN

Peter Liebers, GER

Joshi Helgesson, SWE

5) Finally, I’d be remiss if I didn’t acknowledge an official changing of the (skate) guard... first announced several weeks back... that got a big push from the Today show a few days ago: Terry Gannon, Johnny Weir, and Tara Lipinski have supplanted Tom Hammond, Scott Hamilton and Sandra Bezic as NBC’s broadcast team for all things figure skating. Considering the fact that Hammond/Hamilton/Bezic go at least as far back as the 2002 Salt Lake City Olympics, and have been the premier team since NBC took the skating coverage reins from ABC/ESPN in the 2008-9 season, this is a significant development for those of us who watch faithfully!

Or will you be forced to watch with the sound turned off now because you can’t stand Johnny? Or Tara? Or both? (Please don’t say you can’t stand Terry Gannon. EVERYONE like Gannon. Every. One.) Let me know if you’ve got an opinion on this one... I really want to re-visit this particular topic when time allows.

Speaking of which, I’d better get to work on my second (second?? Yes, she said second) post of the week where I make crazy semi-informed guesses as to how Skate America will go. 

"Should They Stay...?" North American Single Skaters Edition

In finally getting around to a North American edition of the “should they stay or should they go?” question posed in my last post, I’ve decided to list the top U.S. and Canadian singles skaters by age rather than placement at the last Nationals. (Because, like it or not, it matters.) I’ve boldfaced skaters "of interest":

Top 12 men at U.S. Nationals by AGE

Jeremy Abbott (age 29)—finished 1^st

Douglas Razzano (will be 26 this fall, one GP assignment)— finished 6^th

Stephen Carriere (25, one GP assignment)—finished 10^th

Adam Rippon (will be 25 in fall, 2 GP assignments)—finished 8^th

Grant Hochstein (24, will compete at Finlandia Trophy)—finished 11^th

Brandon Mroz (24 this winter) – finished 9^th

Ross Miner (23, 1 GP assignment)—finished 7^th

Richard Dornbush (23, some reports indicated he’d be focusing on college this season but he, too, currently has 2 GP assignments)—finished 5^th

Keegan Messing (22)—finished 12^th

Max Aaron (22, 2 GP assignments)—finished 3^rd

Jason Brown (19, 2 GP assignments)—finished 2^nd

Joshua Farris (19, 2 GP assignments)—finished 4^th

Abbott: I might as well start with the one that will likely bring the most objections, so here goes... I wish he’d stayed with his plan to retire. It’s not that I love his skating any less than I ever have. It’s more about going out a) on his own terms (read: without a career-ending injury, a la Lysacek) and b) on a high note. While I can appreciate his re-thinking his exit strategy after pulling down a 5^th place at Worlds, as well as helping secure a 3^rd spot for the U.S. men for the first time in several years... I think he may be asking too much of himself with this post-script. I could be dead wrong, and I’ve a fork in hand, ready to eat as much crow as necessary. But there was a feeling I had when Abbott’s close pal Alissa Czisny continued competing beyond her strongest season (2010-11), and... to state it simply... that feeling is back.

Mroz: Consider this my APB on the former U.S. Silver Medalist whose name is not to be found among any “Team Envelope” and has not posted to Twitter since early January. Is he continuing? Has he moved on? I don’t take the time to read the message boards much anymore, so someone feel free to clue me in if he’s already been discussed to bits. My thought: with his name already in the record books (first—and only, so far—quad lutz landed in an ISU-sanctioned event, October 2011), Mroz may well have something to offer as a jump specialist. Or maybe it’s time to pursue his dreams of being a dentist. But he’s one of those athletes that seems to have lost his joy of competing several years ago. I might actually be sad if I see his name in the Nats lineup this time.

Messing: The Alaskan with the crazy jumping ability and the unfortunate inability (thus far) to bring his best to Nationals... has decided to cross the border. According to his website, he plans to compete for Canada this season. Assuming he qualifies for their Nationals (??), it’ll be interesting to see how he stacks up against the likes of quad royalty (Kevin Reynolds) and young firecrackers (Nam Nguyen).

Speaking of the Top Canadian Men (again, by AGE)... 

Jeremy Ten (25, 1 GP assignment)—finished 6^th

Kevin Reynolds (24, 2 GP assignments)—finished 2^nd

Elladj Balde (23, 1 GP assignment)—finished 4^th

Patrick Chan (age 23, at least part of season off)—finished 1^st

Liam Firus (22, 1 GP assignment)—finished 3^rd 

Andrei Rogozine (21)—finished 7^th

Nam Nguyen (16, 2 GP assignments)—finished 5^th

Roman Sandovsky (15, in Junior GP)—finished 8^th

Welcome to the group of guys Keegan Messing will face if January if he competes at Nationals... the oldest of which seemed to spontaneously announce his own post-Nationals retirement on Twitter earlier this year. But Jeremy Ten, like another “Jeremy” we’ve discussed, appears to have had a change of heart. No one else, save for Chan, has announced any sort of break. I highlighted Chan’s name, though, to point out he’s still relatively young in this field—one more reason why, as I said last time, I hope he sticks around at least a few more years.

Top 12 ladies at US Nationals by AGE

Ashley Wagner (23, 2 GP assignments)—finished 4^th

Mirai Nagasu (21, 2 GP assignments)—finished 3^rd

Samantha Cesario (21, 2 GP assignments)—finished 5^th

Christina Gao (20, two GP assignments)—finished 8^th

Agnes Zawadzki (20, taking year off)—finished 11^th

Ashley Cain (19, 2 GP assignments)—finished 12^th

Gracie Gold (19, 2 GP assignments)—finished 1^st

Courtney Hicks (19 this winter, 2 GP assignments)—finished 6^th

Barbie Long (18 this month)—finished 7^th

Hannah Miller (18 in Fall, no GPs but has new music for this season)—finished 9^th

Leah Kaiser (17 in a few weeks, Junior GP assignments)—finished 10^th

Polina Edmunds (16, 2 GP assignments)—finished 2^nd

With the U.S. leading ladies still relatively young—you know that’s gotta be true when 21 year-old Nagasu is now among the “elders”—there aren’t as many here that I look at and say “WHY are they continuing??” With the only thing close to a retirement announced by way of 14^th place finisher Kiri Baga (who will now focus on continuing her education), 2010 Olympian-turned-Stanford-Student Rachael Flatt, and two-time Champ Alissa Czisny (who did not compete last January, and formally announced her retirement plans this past spring)... my focus falls to Wagner and Zawadski. Wagner may feel she has something yet to prove (at Nationals, anyway), and after what happened this past January, who can blame her? Whether or not she competes through another 4-year Olympic cycle is another story, but for now, I support her decision to continue. Zawadzki, on the other hand, is at enough of a crossroads to Be On A Break— something that’s become fairly commonplace among the world’s elite skaters, whether they’ve achieved the sport’s greatest heights or not. If you’ve read anything about the unique sacrifices Zawadzki’s family has made in order for her to compete at this level (and I say that with an emphasis on unique; stories of familial sacrifice with top skaters are everywhere), then you might be able to appreciate her decision all the more. As for whether or not she should return... given the wild ride she’s had with placements the past few years (some blame her skating, some blame judges propping her up/giving up on her), it’s a tough call. I’d love to hear what you think if you have an opinion!

Top 8 Ladies at Canadian Nationals by AGE

Amelie Lacoste (25, RETIRED)—finished 3rd

Alexandra Najarro (21) – finished 6^th

Veronika Mallet (20, 1 GP assignment)—finished 4^th

Marianne Ouellet (19)—finished 8^th

Katelyn Osmond (18, 2 GP assignments)—finished 1^st

Alaine Chartrand (18, 2 GP assignments)—finished 5^th

Julianne Seguin (17, doing JGP pairs for sure)—finished 7^th

Gabrielle Daleman (16, 2 GP assignments)—finished 2^nd

Since 2010, when Olympic Bronze Medalist Joannie Rochette (now 28) has essentially stopped competing, Canada has only lost a couple of its consistent top women: 26 year-old Cynthia Phaneuf, and—as of this season—25 year-old Lacoste, who most recently won bronze (but missed out of the two available Olympic spots). And with teenagers Osmond and Daleman taking the top two spots last year, it might be a while before any of Canada’s finest decide to call it a day (and a career). 

Should They Stay or Should They Go? 2014 Olympians Taking "A Break"

So, we’re less than three weeks from the start of the 2014-15 Junior Grand Prix (what I call figure skating’s pre-season)... what better time to look at the list of the elite skaters of the world who are “taking a break”, as has become so common in post-Olympic seasons, and ponder whether or not they should return to competition...?

(I’m looking to do a similar post dealing strictly with U.S. and Canadian skaters, particularly those that didn’t make it to the Olympic or World teams, but I hate the thought of getting *zero* posts up in July! So I’m going to focus on the world list for now.)

Mao Asada, JAPAN

Best Hardware: 2010 Olympic Silver Medal, 3 World Championships

Placement in Sochi Olympics: 6th

Age: 23

Asada says: Her chances of staying competitive beyond last season are 50/50; she’s taking this next year off to rest and focus on other areas of her life.

State of the Skate says: Although she gave some of the best efforts of her whole career this past season, and might very well make it through another Olympic cycle... I’m not sure why she’d want to. If she learned anything this year, it’s that satisfaction and redemption can take many, many forms. She’s competed at the senior international level for NINE years, and won most everything there is to win! Here’s hoping she gets her well-earned rest, and then moves on to all the other areas of greatness that await her.

Carolina Kostner, ITALY

Best Hardware: 2012 World Championship, 2014 Olympic Bronze Medal

Placement in Sochi Olympics: 3rd

Age: 27

Kostner says: She’s sitting out this season (according to social media).

State of the Skate says: Guess who’s been on the senior world scene even longer than Asada? And gone from the highs to the lows and back again even more often? Time to call it, Carolina. Just because you didn’t end with your best performance (2014 Worlds FS) doesn’t mean your stellar Olympic performances won’t live on forever.

Virtue/Moir, CANADA

Best Hardware: 2010 Olympic Gold Medal, 2014 Olympic Silver Medal, 2 World titles

Placement in Sochi Olympics: 2nd

Age: 25/26

V/M say: No GP series for them this year; no further decisions yet.

Davis/White, U.S.A.

Best Hardware: 2014 Olympic Gold Medal, 2010 Olympic Silver Medal,

Placement in Sochi Olympics:

Age: 27/26

D/W say: Taking the entire season off; no further decisions yet.

To both of them, State of the Skate says: Why are we even talking about this? RETIRE. You have nothing left to prove. (And Charlie, my dear, you’ve got a wedding to pretend to help with.)

Patrick Chan, CANADA

Best Hardware: 2014 Olympic Silver Medal, 3 World Championships

Placement in Sochi Olympics: 2nd

Age: 23

Chan says: No GP season this year; unsure about the rest.

State of the Skate says: Plot twist! Despite the way he annoys me whenever he opens his mouth to the press, I wouldn’t mind seeing Chan continue to compete. Despite all his successes, he hasn’t really put it all together yet. And as deftly talented as he is... that’s a shame. Wouldn’t it be nice to see him win at least ONE World title and not feel like Chanflation had anything to do with it?

Coming next: Either the all-North American edition of the above, or a look at the pairs epidemic (self-explanatory, yes?). Got a preference? Mention it in the comments!